(NVAX) Novavax - Overview
Stock: Covid-19 Vaccine, Nanoparticle Platform, Matrix-M Adjuvant, Malaria Vaccine
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 88.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -24.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.31 |
| Alpha | -23.63 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.339 |
| Beta Downside | 0.603 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.11% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.08 |
Description: NVAX Novavax January 16, 2026
Novavax, Inc. (NASDAQ:NVAX) is a U.S.–based biotechnology firm that discovers, develops, and commercializes protein-based vaccines using a proprietary platform that couples recombinant antigens, nanoparticle assembly, and the Matrix-M adjuvant to boost immunogenicity. Its current commercial portfolio centers on the NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 vaccine, marketed globally as Nuvaxovid, Covovax, and the Novavax COVID-19 Vaccine, with approvals for primary series in adults and adolescents and for both homologous and heterologous booster use. The company is also advancing a malaria vaccine candidate, R21/Matrix-M, in partnership with the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative.
Key recent metrics (as of the latest 2024 quarterly filing) include: • Revenue of $210 million in Q2 2024, driven primarily by sales of Covovax in emerging markets; • Cash and cash equivalents of $1.2 billion, providing runway for manufacturing scale-up and ongoing clinical programs; • A manufacturing capacity target of 150 million COVID-19 doses per year by end-2025, contingent on securing additional supply contracts.
Sector-level drivers that materially affect Novavax’s outlook are: • Persistent global demand for COVID-19 booster doses, especially in regions where mRNA vaccines face cold-chain constraints; • Government and multilateral procurement programs (e.g., Gavi, UNICEF) that prioritize protein-subunit vaccines for their lower storage requirements; • Competitive pressure from mRNA and viral-vector platforms, which compresses pricing power and accelerates the need for differentiated efficacy data.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of NVAX’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s analyst toolkit useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 341.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.33 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -26.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 51.16% < 20% (prev -8.73%; Δ 59.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.32 > 3% & CFO -378.3m > Net Income 341.7m |
| Net Debt (-16.9m) to EBITDA (410.0m): -0.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (162.4m) vs 12m ago 1.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 91.87% > 18% (prev 0.66%; Δ 9122 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.62% > 50% (prev 51.69%; Δ 21.93% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.43 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 410.0m / Interest Expense TTM 24.3m) |
Altman Z'' -11.50
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 974.6m - Total Current Liabilities 429.9m) / Total Assets 1.18b |
| B: -3.89 (Retained Earnings -4.59b / Total Assets 1.18b) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 375.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.45b) |
| D: -3.43 (Book Value of Equity -4.59b / Total Liabilities 1.34b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -11.50 = D |
Beneish M -2.96
| DSRI: 0.30 (Receivables 34.2m/95.0m, Revenue 1.06b/885.2m) |
| GMI: 0.71 (GM 91.87% / 65.60%) |
| AQI: 1.22 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.20 (Revenue 1.06b / 885.2m) |
| TATA: 0.61 (NI 341.7m - CFO -378.3m) / TA 1.18b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of NVAX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.78%, over one month by +10.89%, over three months by +8.70% and over the past year by -0.24%.
Is NVAX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NVAX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12.9 | 56.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12.9 | 56.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.5 | 2.7% |
NVAX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 2.5846
P/S = 1.35
P/B = 41.226
Revenue TTM = 1.06b USD
EBIT TTM = 375.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 410.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 243.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.04m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 251.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -16.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 925.5m USD (1.44b + Debt 251.1m - CCE 762.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.43 (Ebit TTM 375.0m / Interest Expense TTM 24.3m)
EV/FCF = -2.41x (Enterprise Value 925.5m / FCF TTM -384.4m)
FCF Yield = -41.54% (FCF TTM -384.4m / Enterprise Value 925.5m)
FCF Margin = -36.11% (FCF TTM -384.4m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Net Margin = 32.10% (Net Income TTM 341.7m / Revenue TTM 1.06b)
Gross Margin = 91.87% ((Revenue TTM 1.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 86.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.49% (prev 94.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.78 (Enterprise Value 925.5m / Total Assets 1.18b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.18% (Interest Expense 5.48m / Debt 251.1m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 296.2m (EBIT 375.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 974.6m / Total Current Liabilities 429.9m)
Debt / Equity = -1.60 (negative equity) (Debt 251.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -156.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.04 (Net Debt -16.9m / EBITDA 410.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.04 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -16.9m / FCF TTM -384.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -204.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.63% (Net Income 341.7m / Total Assets 1.18b)
RoE = -167.0% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 341.7m / Total Stockholder Equity -204.6m)
RoCE = 956.6% (EBIT 375.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -204.6m + L.T.Debt 243.8m))
RoIC = -1842 % (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT 296.2m / Invested Capital -16.1m)
WACC = 9.49% (E(1.44b)/V(1.69b) * Re(10.85%) + D(251.1m)/V(1.69b) * Rd(2.18%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.57%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -384.4m)
EPS Correlation: 31.96 | EPS CAGR: -8.31% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 35.86 | Revenue CAGR: 150.4% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+0.016 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-87.2% | Growth Revenue=-56.3%