(NWE) NorthWestern - Overview
Stock: Electricity, Natural Gas
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.62% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 1.58% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 109.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.52% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.31 |
| Alpha | 26.14 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.185 |
| Beta Downside | 0.184 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 21.97% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.54 |
Description: NWE NorthWestern January 11, 2026
NorthWestern Energy (NASDAQ: NWE) is a regulated utility that supplies electricity and natural gas to roughly 787,000 residential, commercial, and industrial customers across Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. The company owns and operates an extensive network of 6,596 mi of electric transmission, 18,794 mi of electric distribution, 2,133 mi of natural-gas transmission, and 5,221 mi of natural-gas distribution infrastructure, supported by nearly 540 substations and city-gate stations.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023) include $2.6 billion in total revenue, a regulated earnings-before-interest-tax-depreciation-amortization (EBITDA) margin of ~57 %, and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.1×, indicating a moderate leverage profile typical for multi-utility firms. Growth drivers are largely tied to regional population trends (Montana and South Dakota populations grew ~2 % YoY), weather-related demand spikes, and the company’s ongoing capital program to modernize the grid and integrate renewable generation, which aligns with the broader sector shift toward decarbonization and grid resiliency.
For a deeper quantitative assessment of NWE’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at ValueRay’s analytical dashboard can help surface the most material assumptions and scenario outcomes.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 216.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.49 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -15.33% < 20% (prev -29.73%; Δ 14.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 401.1m > Net Income 216.9m |
| Net Debt (3.15b) to EBITDA (614.5m): 5.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (61.4m) vs 12m ago -0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 64.84% > 18% (prev 0.56%; Δ 6429 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 19.44% > 50% (prev 19.05%; Δ 0.38% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.52 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 614.5m / Interest Expense TTM 146.6m) |
Altman Z'' 0.64
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 443.9m - Total Current Liabilities 684.6m) / Total Assets 8.30b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 892.4m / Total Assets 8.30b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 369.9m / Avg Total Assets 8.08b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 886.7m / Total Liabilities 5.42b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.64 = B |
Beneish M -3.13
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 159.1m/144.2m, Revenue 1.57b/1.50b) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 64.84% / 55.67%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 1.57b / 1.50b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 216.9m - CFO 401.1m) / TA 8.30b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NWE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.47%, over one month by +4.94%, over three months by +8.91% and over the past year by +33.32%.
Is NWE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NWE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 62.6 | -8.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 62.6 | -8.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 76.8 | 12.7% |
NWE Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 17.3611
P/S = 2.6546
P/B = 1.4471
P/EG = 2.4797
Revenue TTM = 1.57b USD
EBIT TTM = 369.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 614.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 107.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.15b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.15b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.31b USD (4.17b + Debt 3.15b - CCE 6.20m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.52 (Ebit TTM 369.9m / Interest Expense TTM 146.6m)
EV/FCF = -59.87x (Enterprise Value 7.31b / FCF TTM -122.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.67% (FCF TTM -122.2m / Enterprise Value 7.31b)
FCF Margin = -7.78% (FCF TTM -122.2m / Revenue TTM 1.57b)
Net Margin = 13.82% (Net Income TTM 216.9m / Revenue TTM 1.57b)
Gross Margin = 64.84% ((Revenue TTM 1.57b - Cost of Revenue TTM 551.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.42% (prev 59.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.88 (Enterprise Value 7.31b / Total Assets 8.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.22% (Interest Expense 38.4m / Debt 3.15b)
Taxrate = 18.69% (8.79m / 47.0m)
NOPAT = 300.8m (EBIT 369.9m * (1 - 18.69%))
Current Ratio = 0.65 (Total Current Assets 443.9m / Total Current Liabilities 684.6m)
Debt / Equity = 1.09 (Debt 3.15b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.88b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.12 (Net Debt 3.15b / EBITDA 614.5m)
Debt / FCF = -25.75 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 3.15b / FCF TTM -122.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.69% (Net Income 216.9m / Total Assets 8.30b)
RoE = 7.54% (Net Income TTM 216.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.88b)
RoCE = 6.25% (EBIT 369.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.88b + L.T.Debt 3.04b))
RoIC = 4.97% (NOPAT 300.8m / Invested Capital 6.06b)
WACC = 4.18% (E(4.17b)/V(7.32b) * Re(6.60%) + D(3.15b)/V(7.32b) * Rd(1.22%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 6.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.12%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -122.2m)
EPS Correlation: -20.83 | EPS CAGR: -52.37% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.06 | Revenue CAGR: 2.92% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.84 | Chg30d=-0.006 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+6.9% | Growth Revenue=+5.3%