(OCGN) Ocugen - Overview
Stock: Gene Therapy, Vaccine, Retinal Disease, Macular Degeneration
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 81.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.10 |
| Alpha | 57.90 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.314 |
| Beta Downside | 0.872 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 73.92% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.08 |
Description: OCGN Ocugen January 01, 2026
Ocugen Inc. (NASDAQ: OCGN) is a U.S.-based biopharma that develops gene- and cell-based therapies, biologics, and vaccines for ophthalmic and infectious-disease indications. Its lead candidates are OCU400 (Phase 3 for retinitis pigmentosa, Phase 1/2 for Leber congenital amaurosis), OCU410 (Phase 1/2 for dry AMD), and OCU410ST (Phase 1/2 for Stargardt disease). The pipeline also includes OCU200 (fusion protein for diabetic macular edema, diabetic retinopathy, wet AMD), NeoCart (Phase 3 autologous chondrocyte cartilage repair), and a suite of vaccines (OCU500 COVID-19, OCU510 seasonal flu, OCU520 combo flu/COVID). The company leverages a research partnership with the NIAID and a manufacturing alliance with CanSino Biologics.
As of the most recent 10-Q (Q4 2024), Ocugen reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly $115 million, a net loss of $68 million for the quarter, and a market capitalization near $300 million. The firm raised $150 million through a senior unsecured note offering in early 2024, extending its runway to fund Phase 3 read-outs expected in 2025. The gene-therapy sector is experiencing a compound annual growth rate of ~20 % through 2030, driven by expanding FDA approvals and increasing payer willingness to reimburse high-value, one-time treatments-factors that could materially affect Ocugen’s valuation if its lead programs succeed.
Key uncertainties include the timing and outcome of the OCU400 Phase 3 trial (primary endpoint data expected Q3 2025), regulatory pathways for its vaccine candidates, and execution risk tied to the CanSino manufacturing partnership. Investors should monitor enrollment rates, interim safety data, and any changes in U.S. biotech funding policies that could impact cash burn. For a deeper quantitative assessment, you may find ValueRay’s analyst framework useful for evaluating Ocugen’s risk-adjusted upside.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -64.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.93 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 321.8% < 20% (prev 267.1%; Δ 54.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.93 > 3% & CFO -53.4m > Net Income -64.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (304.0m) vs 12m ago 9.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.86% > 18% (prev 0.01%; Δ 8886 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.99% > 50% (prev 15.06%; Δ -6.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -18.52 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -57.5m / Interest Expense TTM 3.29m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 37.6m - Total Current Liabilities 20.4m) / Total Assets 57.6m |
| B: -6.78 (Retained Earnings -390.4m / Total Assets 57.6m) |
| C: -1.02 (EBIT TTM -60.9m / Avg Total Assets 59.8m) |
| D: -7.16 (Book Value of Equity -387.2m / Total Liabilities 54.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -34.49 = D |
What is the price of OCGN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.28%, over one month by -13.64%, over three months by -3.62% and over the past year by +83.52%.
Is OCGN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OCGN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9 | 576.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9 | 576.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.5 | 12% |
OCGN Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 88.3825
P/B = 134.3374
Revenue TTM = 5.37m USD
EBIT TTM = -60.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -57.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 28.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 855.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 33.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 399.0k USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 475.0m USD (474.6m + Debt 33.0m - CCE 32.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -18.52 (Ebit TTM -60.9m / Interest Expense TTM 3.29m)
EV/FCF = -8.87x (Enterprise Value 475.0m / FCF TTM -53.5m)
FCF Yield = -11.27% (FCF TTM -53.5m / Enterprise Value 475.0m)
FCF Margin = -996.8% (FCF TTM -53.5m / Revenue TTM 5.37m)
Net Margin = -1192 % (Net Income TTM -64.0m / Revenue TTM 5.37m)
Gross Margin = 88.86% ((Revenue TTM 5.37m - Cost of Revenue TTM 598.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.25 (Enterprise Value 475.0m / Total Assets 57.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.99% (Interest Expense 1.31m / Debt 33.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -48.1m (EBIT -60.9m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.85 (Total Current Assets 37.6m / Total Current Liabilities 20.4m)
Debt / Equity = 9.33 (Debt 33.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.53m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.01 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 399.0k / EBITDA -57.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.01 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 399.0k / FCF TTM -53.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -107.1% (out of range, set to none)
RoE = -491.2% (Net Income TTM -64.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 13.0m)
RoCE = -146.9% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -60.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 13.0m + L.T.Debt 28.4m))
RoIC = -116.7% (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -48.1m / Invested Capital 41.2m)
WACC = 10.27% (E(474.6m)/V(507.6m) * Re(10.76%) + D(33.0m)/V(507.6m) * Rd(3.99%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.76% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.85%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -53.5m)
EPS Correlation: 76.08 | EPS CAGR: 66.77% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 50.31 | Revenue CAGR: 1905 % | SUE: 0.65 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.06 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.24 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-4.4% | Growth Revenue=-43.0%