(OCUL) Ocular Therapeutix - Overview
Stock: Dextenza, Axpaxli, Paxtrava
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 82.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.54 |
| Alpha | -4.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.136 |
| Beta Downside | 1.019 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 72.77% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.46 |
Description: OCUL Ocular Therapeutix January 14, 2026
Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) is a U.S. biopharmaceutical firm that commercializes eye-care products built on a proprietary bioresorbable hydrogel platform, enabling sustained drug delivery directly to ocular tissues.
The company’s only FDA-approved product, DEXTENZA®, is a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert indicated for post-surgical inflammation, pain, and allergic conjunctivitis, generating the bulk of its 2023 revenue of roughly $45 million.
OCUL’s pipeline leverages the same hydrogel technology: AXPAXLI, an axitinib-based intravitreal hydrogel, is in Phase 3 for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (wet-AMD) and Phase 1 for non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy; PAXTRAVA, a travoprost intracameral hydrogel, is in Phase 2 for open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension. Success in these trials could expand the addressable market, which the U.S. retina segment alone is projected to exceed $12 billion by 2028.
OCUL maintains a strategic license and commercialization partnership with AffaMed Therapeutics for both DEXTENZA and PAXTRAVA, and its balance sheet reported $120 million of cash and short-term investments at year-end, providing runway for continued R&D and potential M&A activity.
For a deeper quantitative dive into OCUL’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can be a useful next step.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -249.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.49 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -24.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 605.4% < 20% (prev 710.7%; Δ -105.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.46 > 3% & CFO -190.1m > Net Income -249.7m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 7.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (183.9m) vs 12m ago 10.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.87% > 18% (prev 0.91%; Δ 8796 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.38% > 50% (prev 12.53%; Δ -0.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -19.62 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -233.5m / Interest Expense TTM 12.1m) |
Altman Z'' -14.33
| A: 0.82 (Total Current Assets 387.0m - Total Current Liabilities 49.3m) / Total Assets 410.9m |
| B: -2.66 (Retained Earnings -1.09b / Total Assets 410.9m) |
| C: -0.53 (EBIT TTM -237.6m / Avg Total Assets 450.6m) |
| D: -7.16 (Book Value of Equity -1.09b / Total Liabilities 152.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -14.33 = D |
Beneish M -3.01
| DSRI: 1.12 (Receivables 30.8m/30.2m, Revenue 55.8m/61.4m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 88.87% / 90.59%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 55.8m / 61.4m) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -249.7m - CFO -190.1m) / TA 410.9m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.01 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of OCUL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.22%, over one month by -18.58%, over three months by -13.83% and over the past year by +19.90%.
Is OCUL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OCUL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 24.3 | 164.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 24.3 | 164.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.7 | 6.3% |
OCUL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 7.5367
Revenue TTM = 55.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -237.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -233.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 70.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.76m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 77.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -267.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.68b USD (1.95b + Debt 77.0m - CCE 344.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -19.62 (Ebit TTM -237.6m / Interest Expense TTM 12.1m)
EV/FCF = -8.42x (Enterprise Value 1.68b / FCF TTM -199.4m)
FCF Yield = -11.87% (FCF TTM -199.4m / Enterprise Value 1.68b)
FCF Margin = -357.5% (FCF TTM -199.4m / Revenue TTM 55.8m)
Net Margin = -447.6% (Net Income TTM -249.7m / Revenue TTM 55.8m)
Gross Margin = 88.87% ((Revenue TTM 55.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.21m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.80% (prev 85.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.09 (Enterprise Value 1.68b / Total Assets 410.9m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.90% (Interest Expense 3.00m / Debt 77.0m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -187.7m (EBIT -237.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 7.85 (Total Current Assets 387.0m / Total Current Liabilities 49.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 77.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 258.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.15 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -267.8m / EBITDA -233.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.34 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -267.8m / FCF TTM -199.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 286.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -55.41% (Net Income -249.7m / Total Assets 410.9m)
RoE = -87.19% (Net Income TTM -249.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 286.4m)
RoCE = -66.55% (EBIT -237.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 286.4m + L.T.Debt 70.6m))
RoIC = -52.73% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -187.7m / Invested Capital 355.9m)
WACC = 9.83% (E(1.95b)/V(2.02b) * Re(10.10%) + D(77.0m)/V(2.02b) * Rd(3.90%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 10.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 30.01%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -199.4m)
EPS Correlation: -4.56 | EPS CAGR: 6.85% | SUE: 1.89 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 32.85 | Revenue CAGR: 4.55% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.34 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.48 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-3.7% | Growth Revenue=+20.4%