(OPXS) Optex Systems Holdings - Overview
Stock: Periscopes, Sighting Systems, Howitzers, Applied Optics, Vision Blocks
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.39 |
| Alpha | 106.55 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.863 |
| Beta Downside | 0.896 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.68% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.52 |
Description: OPXS Optex Systems Holdings December 31, 2025
Optex Systems Holdings (NASDAQ: OPXS) designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of optical sighting and periscope systems for U.S. Department of Defense platforms, foreign militaries, and U.S. commercial/consumer markets. Its product line spans laser-protected and non-laser periscopes, electronic day/thermal periscopes (e.g., M17, M36), backup and digital night-vision sights, commander weapon-station optics, and a range of applied-optics components such as laser interference filters, thin-film coatings, and muzzle-reference systems. These assemblies are integrated onto land vehicles including the M1 Abrams, Bradley, and Stryker families, and are sold directly to the federal government, prime contractors, and foreign governments.
Key external drivers that could materially affect OPXS’s outlook include: (1) **U.S. defense spending** – FY2024 defense appropriations are projected to rise ~3 % year-over-year, supporting continued demand for vehicle-mounted optics; (2) **Backlog and contract pipeline** – the company reported a FY2023 backlog of roughly $70 million, suggesting near-term revenue visibility but also exposing it to potential contract-award timing risk; (3) **Margin pressure** – industry-wide, the aerospace & defense sector’s average EBIT margin sits near 9 %, while OPXS’s last disclosed margin was ~7 %, indicating room for operational leverage if scale improves. These figures are based on the latest SEC filings and analyst estimates; actual results may differ if foreign export controls tighten or if the Pentagon shifts procurement toward integrated sensor suites.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the ValueRay profile for OPXS.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 5.15m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.21 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 21.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 51.16% < 20% (prev 44.48%; Δ 6.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 6.93m > Net Income 5.15m |
| Net Debt (-4.54m) to EBITDA (7.65m): -0.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.64 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (6.92m) vs 12m ago 0.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.17% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 2888 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 148.8% > 50% (prev 133.2%; Δ 15.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.31 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 7.65m / Interest Expense TTM 23.0m) |
Altman Z'' 7.06
| A: 0.70 (Total Current Assets 25.7m - Total Current Liabilities 4.56m) / Total Assets 30.1m |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 2.48m / Total Assets 30.1m) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 7.13m / Avg Total Assets 27.8m) |
| D: 0.43 (Book Value of Equity 2.49m / Total Liabilities 5.76m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.06 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.26
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 4.71m/3.98m, Revenue 41.3m/34.0m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 29.17% / 28.03%) |
| AQI: 0.54 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.22 (Revenue 41.3m / 34.0m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 5.15m - CFO 6.93m) / TA 30.1m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of OPXS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.22%, over one month by +8.24%, over three months by -10.19% and over the past year by +114.07%.
Is OPXS a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the OPXS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | - | - |
| Analysts Target Price | - | - |
| ValueRay Target Price | 23.2 | 60.7% |
OPXS Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 2.5694
P/B = 4.2639
Revenue TTM = 41.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 7.13m USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.65m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.85m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.85b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.85m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -4.54m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 101.7m USD (106.2m + Debt 1.85m - CCE 6.39m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.31 (Ebit TTM 7.13m / Interest Expense TTM 23.0m)
EV/FCF = 15.82x (Enterprise Value 101.7m / FCF TTM 6.43m)
FCF Yield = 6.32% (FCF TTM 6.43m / Enterprise Value 101.7m)
FCF Margin = 15.55% (FCF TTM 6.43m / Revenue TTM 41.3m)
Net Margin = 12.45% (Net Income TTM 5.15m / Revenue TTM 41.3m)
Gross Margin = 29.17% ((Revenue TTM 41.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 29.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 30.08% (prev 28.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.38 (Enterprise Value 101.7m / Total Assets 30.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1244 % (Interest Expense 23.0m / Debt 1.85m)
Taxrate = 21.03% (273.0k / 1.30m)
NOPAT = 5.63m (EBIT 7.13m * (1 - 21.03%))
Current Ratio = 5.64 (Total Current Assets 25.7m / Total Current Liabilities 4.56m)
Debt / Equity = 0.08 (Debt 1.85m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 24.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.59 (Net Debt -4.54m / EBITDA 7.65m)
Debt / FCF = -0.71 (Net Debt -4.54m / FCF TTM 6.43m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.52% (Net Income 5.15m / Total Assets 30.1m)
RoE = 23.20% (Net Income TTM 5.15m / Total Stockholder Equity 22.2m)
RoCE = 29.67% (EBIT 7.13m / Capital Employed (Equity 22.2m + L.T.Debt 1.85m))
RoIC = 25.38% (NOPAT 5.63m / Invested Capital 22.2m)
WACC = 8.94% (E(106.2m)/V(108.1m) * Re(9.10%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.49%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 66.05% ; FCFF base≈3.88m ; Y1≈2.54m ; Y5≈1.16m
Fair Price DCF = 3.46 (EV 19.5m - Net Debt -4.54m = Equity 24.0m / Shares 6.94m; r=8.94% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 39.03 | EPS CAGR: 167.4% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 87.41 | Revenue CAGR: 29.07% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0