(ORLY) O’Reilly Automotive - Overview
Stock: Parts, Tools, Accessories, Fluids, Equipment
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 0.49% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.20 |
| Alpha | -1.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.168 |
| Beta Downside | -0.016 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 18.07% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.10 |
Description: ORLY O’Reilly Automotive January 27, 2026
OReilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is a leading U.S. retailer and supplier of aftermarket automotive parts, tools, and accessories, operating over 1,200 stores across the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company’s product mix spans new and remanufactured hard parts (e.g., alternators, batteries, brake components) and a broad range of accessories, with private-label brands such as BesTest, BrakeBest, and O’Reilly Auto Parts complementing its national-brand offerings.
In its most recent fiscal quarter (Q2 2024), O’Reilly reported net sales of $3.20 billion, a 4.5 % year-over-year increase in comparable-store sales, and an inventory turnover of 5.3 ×-both metrics that exceed the industry median of roughly 4.5 ×. The company’s operating margin expanded to 5.8 % (vs. 5.2 % a year earlier), driven by disciplined pricing, a modest lift in labor-related services, and continued cost-control initiatives. These results sit against a backdrop of a growing automotive-aftermarket market, projected by IHS Markit to expand at a 3.5 % CAGR through 2029, largely powered by an aging vehicle fleet (average age ≈ 12 years) and the gradual rollout of electric-vehicle (EV) service capabilities.
Key economic drivers for the sector include vehicle-miles-travel (VMT) trends-VMT has risen 2.1 % YoY in the United States-and consumer-confidence-linked discretionary spending on vehicle maintenance, which remains resilient despite higher interest-rate environments. However, sensitivity to a potential slowdown in new-car sales (which can suppress parts demand) introduces upside risk to O’Reilly’s growth outlook.
For a deeper, data-driven dive into O’Reilly’s valuation dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 2.54b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -11.42% < 20% (prev -14.62%; Δ 3.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 2.76b > Net Income 2.54b |
| Net Debt (8.30b) to EBITDA (3.98b): 2.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (848.4m) vs 12m ago 1.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.59% > 18% (prev 0.51%; Δ 5108 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 113.1% > 50% (prev 112.2%; Δ 0.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.77 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.98b / Interest Expense TTM 235.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.08
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 6.74b - Total Current Liabilities 8.78b) / Total Assets 16.54b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -2.33b / Total Assets 16.54b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 3.47b / Avg Total Assets 15.72b) |
| D: -0.13 (Book Value of Equity -2.30b / Total Liabilities 17.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.08 = B |
Beneish M -4.00
| DSRI: 0.74 (Receivables 389.8m/495.9m, Revenue 17.78b/16.71b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 51.59% / 51.20%) |
| AQI: -2.26 (AQ_t -0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 17.78b / 16.71b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 2.54b - CFO 2.76b) / TA 16.54b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -5.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of ORLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.26%, over one month by +4.24%, over three months by -0.82% and over the past year by +6.20%.
Is ORLY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the ORLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 108.4 | 15% |
| Analysts Target Price | 108.4 | 15% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 109.6 | 16.3% |
ORLY Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 28.8184
P/S = 4.4885
P/B = 210.1772
P/EG = 2.1923
Revenue TTM = 17.78b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.47b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.98b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.92b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 439.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.49b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 8.30b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 86.68b USD (78.38b + Debt 8.49b - CCE 193.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.77 (Ebit TTM 3.47b / Interest Expense TTM 235.1m)
EV/FCF = 54.41x (Enterprise Value 86.68b / FCF TTM 1.59b)
FCF Yield = 1.84% (FCF TTM 1.59b / Enterprise Value 86.68b)
FCF Margin = 8.96% (FCF TTM 1.59b / Revenue TTM 17.78b)
Net Margin = 14.27% (Net Income TTM 2.54b / Revenue TTM 17.78b)
Gross Margin = 51.59% ((Revenue TTM 17.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.79% (prev 51.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 5.24 (Enterprise Value 86.68b / Total Assets 16.54b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.71% (Interest Expense 60.6m / Debt 8.49b)
Taxrate = 21.47% (165.5m / 770.7m)
NOPAT = 2.73b (EBIT 3.47b * (1 - 21.47%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 6.74b / Total Current Liabilities 8.78b)
Debt / Equity = -11.12 (negative equity) (Debt 8.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -763.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.08 (Net Debt 8.30b / EBITDA 3.98b)
Debt / FCF = 5.21 (Net Debt 8.30b / FCF TTM 1.59b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.15% (Net Income 2.54b / Total Assets 16.54b)
RoE = -239.0% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 2.54b / Total Stockholder Equity -1.06b)
RoCE = 71.54% (EBIT 3.47b / Capital Employed (Equity -1.06b + L.T.Debt 5.92b))
RoIC = 58.82% (NOPAT 2.73b / Invested Capital 4.64b)
WACC = 5.96% (E(78.38b)/V(86.88b) * Re(6.54%) + D(8.49b)/V(86.88b) * Rd(0.71%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.24%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.67% ; FCFF base≈1.77b ; Y1≈1.55b ; Y5≈1.26b
Fair Price DCF = 34.82 (EV 37.61b - Net Debt 8.30b = Equity 29.32b / Shares 841.9m; r=5.96% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.03% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 75.50 | EPS CAGR: 11.00% | SUE: -0.60 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 88.52 | Revenue CAGR: 8.10% | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=-0.020 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=10
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.22 | Chg30d=-0.088 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+8.5% | Growth Revenue=+6.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.64 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+13.0% | Growth Revenue=+6.4%