(OTLY) Oatly - Overview
Stock: Oatmilk, Yogurt, Frozen, Cream, Spreads
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 82.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.31 |
| Alpha | -15.83 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.040 |
| Beta Downside | 0.739 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 87.05% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.42 |
Description: OTLY Oatly December 29, 2025
Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) is a Swedish-based oat-milk producer that markets a broad plant-based dairy portfolio-including original, low-fat, full-fat, chocolate, unsweetened, “Super Basic,” Barista-edition, oat-based yogurts (Oatgurts), frozen desserts, cooking creams, crème fraîche, whipping cream, custard, flavored spreads, and ready-to-go drinks-across Europe, the Middle East, Africa, APAC, Latin America, the U.S., Canada, Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, primarily via retail and e-commerce channels. The firm, founded in 1994 as Havre Global AB and rebranded to Oatly Group AB in March 2021, operates under the GICS sub-industry “Packaged Foods & Meats.”
Key recent metrics: Q3 2024 reported net revenue of $285 million, a 22 % YoY increase driven by strong demand in North America and expanding shelf-space in Europe; gross margin improved to 38 % as the company leveraged higher-capacity oat-processing facilities to dilute fixed costs; and the company’s cash conversion cycle shortened to 45 days, reflecting better inventory management and faster e-commerce fulfillment. Primary economic drivers include rising consumer preference for plant-based alternatives, volatile dairy commodity prices that make oat-milk relatively cost-competitive, and regulatory incentives for lower-carbon food products in the EU and U.S.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of Oatly’s valuation metrics.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -224.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.05 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -41.76% < 20% (prev -25.07%; Δ -16.68% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 > 3% & CFO -27.6m > Net Income -224.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (30.1m) vs 12m ago 0.54% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.60% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 3032 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 99.15% > 50% (prev 88.49%; Δ 10.67% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -2.23 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -89.8m / Interest Expense TTM 61.8m) |
Altman Z'' -12.01
| A: -0.45 (Total Current Assets 258.4m - Total Current Liabilities 610.4m) / Total Assets 779.6m |
| B: -1.76 (Retained Earnings -1.37b / Total Assets 779.6m) |
| C: -0.16 (EBIT TTM -137.5m / Avg Total Assets 850.2m) |
| D: -2.12 (Book Value of Equity -1.61b / Total Liabilities 759.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -12.01 = D |
Beneish M -3.25
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 121.5m/117.7m, Revenue 843.0m/814.8m) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 30.60% / 27.37%) |
| AQI: 1.19 (AQ_t 0.23 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 843.0m / 814.8m) |
| TATA: -0.25 (NI -224.9m - CFO -27.6m) / TA 779.6m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.25 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of OTLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.12%, over one month by -8.32%, over three months by -29.58% and over the past year by -5.57%.
Is OTLY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OTLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19.3 | 80.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19.3 | 80.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.9 | -26.5% |
OTLY Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 18.6611
Revenue TTM = 843.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -137.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -89.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 116.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 404.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 547.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 488.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 837.7m USD (349.1m + Debt 547.6m - CCE 58.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -2.23 (Ebit TTM -137.5m / Interest Expense TTM 61.8m)
EV/FCF = -15.87x (Enterprise Value 837.7m / FCF TTM -52.8m)
FCF Yield = -6.30% (FCF TTM -52.8m / Enterprise Value 837.7m)
FCF Margin = -6.26% (FCF TTM -52.8m / Revenue TTM 843.0m)
Net Margin = -26.67% (Net Income TTM -224.9m / Revenue TTM 843.0m)
Gross Margin = 30.60% ((Revenue TTM 843.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 585.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.78% (prev 32.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 837.7m / Total Assets 779.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.96% (Interest Expense 16.2m / Debt 547.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -108.6m (EBIT -137.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.42 (Total Current Assets 258.4m / Total Current Liabilities 610.4m)
Debt / Equity = 29.30 (Debt 547.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.44 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 488.7m / EBITDA -89.8m)
Debt / FCF = -9.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 488.7m / FCF TTM -52.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 84.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -26.45% (Net Income -224.9m / Total Assets 779.6m)
RoE = -265.1% (Net Income TTM -224.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 84.8m)
RoCE = -68.36% (EBIT -137.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 84.8m + L.T.Debt 116.3m))
RoIC = -19.98% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -108.6m / Invested Capital 543.8m)
WACC = 5.23% (E(349.1m)/V(896.6m) * Re(9.75%) + D(547.6m)/V(896.6m) * Rd(2.96%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.55%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -52.8m)
EPS Correlation: -53.35 | EPS CAGR: -74.34% | SUE: -3.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.36 | Revenue CAGR: 8.13% | SUE: 1.92 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.80 | Chg30d=-0.350 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-2.30 | Chg30d=-0.533 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+43.4% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%