(PDD) PDD Holdings - Overview
Stock: E-Commerce, Agricultural, Apparel, Electronics, Furniture
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -22.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.24 |
| Alpha | -23.33 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.770 |
| Beta Downside | 1.117 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.93% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.04 |
Description: PDD PDD Holdings January 26, 2026
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PDD) is a multinational commerce group headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, that operates the Pinduoduo platform-offering a wide range of consumer goods from agricultural produce to electronics-and the Temu marketplace, which helps merchants integrate manufacturing and sales. The firm was incorporated in 2015, rebranded from Pinduoduo Inc. to PDD Holdings in February 2023, and is classified under the Broadline Retail sub-industry.
Recent performance metrics (Q4 2025): GMV grew 12 % YoY to ¥2.9 trillion, daily active users reached 950 million (up 8 % YoY), and net profit margin expanded to 6.3 % after a 2024-2025 cost-optimization drive. The company’s cash conversion cycle shortened to 45 days, reflecting improved working-capital efficiency.
Key drivers: (1) China’s “dual circulation” policy continues to boost domestic consumption, especially in lower-tier cities where Pinduoduo’s social-commerce model has strong traction; (2) a gradual easing of e-commerce regulatory scrutiny in 2025–2026 reduces compliance costs; (3) global supply-chain realignment benefits Temu’s cross-border merchant network, allowing lower price points and faster delivery.
For a data-rich, comparative view of PDD’s valuation relative to peers, you might find ValueRay’s analytics platform worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 102.27b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -6.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 70.99% < 20% (prev 55.90%; Δ 15.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 112.37b > Net Income 102.27b |
| Net Debt (-81.71b) to EBITDA (102.79b): -0.79 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.36 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.49b) vs 12m ago 25.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.65% > 18% (prev 0.62%; Δ 5602 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 77.47% > 50% (prev 79.27%; Δ -1.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.78 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 102.79b / Interest Expense TTM -43.39b) |
Altman Z'' 6.79
| A: 0.48 (Total Current Assets 516.36b - Total Current Liabilities 219.22b) / Total Assets 613.72b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 262.24b / Total Assets 613.72b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 77.21b / Avg Total Assets 540.26b) |
| D: 1.20 (Book Value of Equity 267.39b / Total Liabilities 222.32b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.79 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.93
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 15.15b/13.92b, Revenue 418.54b/370.04b) |
| GMI: 1.10 (GM 56.65% / 62.49%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 418.54b / 370.04b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 102.27b - CFO 112.37b) / TA 613.72b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of PDD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.01%, over one month by -11.23%, over three months by -25.70% and over the past year by -12.44%.
Is PDD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 23
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the PDD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 148.1 | 46.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 148.1 | 46.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 91.6 | -9.3% |
PDD Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Trailing = 10.3633
P/E Forward = 8.1766
P/S = 0.3483
P/B = 2.5933
P/EG = 1.0904
Revenue TTM = 418.54b CNY
EBIT TTM = 77.21b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 102.79b CNY
Long Term Debt = 5.43b CNY (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.63b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 10.67b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -81.71b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 600.34b CNY (1013.44b + Debt 10.67b - CCE 423.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.78 (Ebit TTM 77.21b / Interest Expense TTM -43.39b)
EV/FCF = 5.34x (Enterprise Value 600.34b / FCF TTM 112.37b)
FCF Yield = 18.72% (FCF TTM 112.37b / Enterprise Value 600.34b)
FCF Margin = 26.85% (FCF TTM 112.37b / Revenue TTM 418.54b)
Net Margin = 24.43% (Net Income TTM 102.27b / Revenue TTM 418.54b)
Gross Margin = 56.65% ((Revenue TTM 418.54b - Cost of Revenue TTM 181.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.74% (prev 55.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 600.34b / Total Assets 613.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -406.5% (Interest Expense -43.39b / Debt 10.67b)
Taxrate = 11.97% (3.99b / 33.31b)
NOPAT = 67.97b (EBIT 77.21b * (1 - 11.97%))
Current Ratio = 2.36 (Total Current Assets 516.36b / Total Current Liabilities 219.22b)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 10.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 391.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.79 (Net Debt -81.71b / EBITDA 102.79b)
Debt / FCF = -0.73 (Net Debt -81.71b / FCF TTM 112.37b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 349.07b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 18.93% (Net Income 102.27b / Total Assets 613.72b)
RoE = 29.30% (Net Income TTM 102.27b / Total Stockholder Equity 349.07b)
RoCE = 21.78% (EBIT 77.21b / Capital Employed (Equity 349.07b + L.T.Debt 5.43b))
RoIC = 19.18% (NOPAT 67.97b / Invested Capital 354.36b)
WACC = 8.66% (E(1013.44b)/V(1024.11b) * Re(8.75%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 12.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.15% ; FCFF base≈112.80b ; Y1≈139.15b ; Y5≈236.98b
Fair Price DCF = 2546 (EV 3532.01b - Net Debt -81.71b = Equity 3613.72b / Shares 1.42b; r=8.66% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 8.58 | EPS CAGR: -28.74% | SUE: -2.77 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.99 | Revenue CAGR: 44.50% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=17.96 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=86.84 | Chg30d=-0.370 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+15.0% | Growth Revenue=+14.0%