PEGA Stock Analysis: Pegasystems | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 5.144m USD | 12M Return: -44.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 71.2M
EPS Trend: 56.4%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 96.6%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
Average return per month, with how dependable it is below — did the month move the same way every year (high) or randomly (low). Above 60 is a pattern worth trusting; under 40 is noise.
Pegasystems Inc. (NASDAQ: PEGA) is an enterprise software company that develops, markets, licenses, hosts, and supports applications across the United States, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region. Its flagship offering, Pega Infinity, is a software portfolio that includes the AI-powered Customer Decision Hub for real-time customer behavior prediction, Pega Customer Service for omnichannel customer engagement, and the Pega Platform for AI-driven workflow automation. Supporting products include the Situational Layer Cake, Pega GenAI Blueprint, Pega Cloud, Pega Catalyst, and Pega Academy, alongside global service assurance and client support services.
The company sells to the financial services, healthcare, communications and media, government, insurance, manufacturing and high tech, and consumer industries, reaching clients through a direct sales force as well as partnerships with technology providers and application developers. Its revenue model combines software licensing, cloud-based hosting subscriptions, and professional services, a structure typical of established application software vendors. Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts, Pegasystems is a long-tenured player in the enterprise software market and has been publicly traded since 1996.
- Pega Cloud ACV growth accelerates subscription revenue mix shift
- GenAI Blueprint adoption pressures competition from Salesforce and ServiceNow
- EMEA and APAC currency headwinds impact international license revenue
| Net Income: 340.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.32 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.60 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 9.44% < 20% (prev 14.45%; Δ -5.01% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 513.2m > Net Income 340.8m |
| Net Debt (-401.8m) to EBITDA (214.2m): -1.88 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.22 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (178.8m) vs 12m ago -5.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.96% > 18% (prev 75.74%; Δ -0.78% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 118.4% > 50% (prev 124.3%; Δ -5.90% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 643.2 > 6 (EBIT TTM 194.2m / Interest Expense TTM 302k) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 903.9m - Total Current Liabilities 743.4m) / Total Assets 1.55b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 491.1m / Total Assets 1.55b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 194.2m / Avg Total Assets 1.44b) |
| D: 0.84 (Book Value of Equity 705.9m / Total Liabilities 845.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.50 = A |
| DSRI: 0.72 (Receivables 315.9m/424.9m, Revenue 1.70b/1.64b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 75.74% / 74.96%) |
| AQI: 1.23 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 1.70b / 1.64b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 340.8m - CFO 513.2m) / TA 1.55b) |
| Beneish M = -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 01, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.97 with a total of 1,828,219 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.44%, over one month by -20.99%, over three months by -29.53% and over the past year by -44.51%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.00 (which is 6.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Pegasystems has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.21. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PEGA.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 58.2 | 94.1% |
P/E Trailing = 16.6378
P/E Forward = 10.5374
P/S = 3.0255
P/B = 7.2868
P/EG = 3.5373
Revenue TTM = 1.70b USD
EBIT TTM = 194.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 214.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 57.1m USD (estimated: total debt 72.1m - short term 15.1m)
Short Term Debt = 15.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 72.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 72.1m already included)
Net Debt = -401.8m USD (calculated: Debt 72.1m - CCE 474.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.74b USD (5.14b + Debt 72.1m - CCE 474.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 643.2 (Ebit TTM 194.2m / Interest Expense TTM 302k)
EV/FCF = 9.58x (Enterprise Value 4.74b / FCF TTM 494.9m)
FCF Yield = 10.44% (FCF TTM 494.9m / Enterprise Value 4.74b)
FCF Margin = 29.11% (FCF TTM 494.9m / Revenue TTM 1.70b)
Net Margin = 20.04% (Net Income TTM 340.8m / Revenue TTM 1.70b)
Gross Margin = 74.96% ((Revenue TTM 1.70b - Cost of Revenue TTM 425.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.17% (prev 79.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.06 (Enterprise Value 4.74b / Total Assets 1.55b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 302k / Debt 72.1m)
Taxrate = 17.48% (6.94m / 39.7m)
NOPAT = 160.3m (EBIT 194.2m * (1 - 17.48%))
Current Ratio = 1.22 (Total Current Assets 903.9m / Total Current Liabilities 743.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.10 (Debt 72.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 705.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.88 (Net Debt -401.8m / EBITDA 214.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.81 (Net Debt -401.8m / FCF TTM 494.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 678.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 23.72% (Net Income 340.8m / Total Assets 1.55b)
RoE = 50.21% (Net Income TTM 340.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 678.7m)
RoCE = 26.40% (EBIT 194.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 678.7m + L.T.Debt 57.1m))
RoIC = 21.73% (NOPAT 160.3m / Invested Capital 737.6m)
WACC = 10.18% (E(5.14b)/V(5.22b) * Re(10.32%) + D(72.1m)/V(5.22b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 10.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 24.44 | Cagr: -0.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.28% ; FCFF base≈441.3m ; Y1≈505.9m ; Y5≈744.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.06 (EV 8.46b - Net Debt -401.8m = Equity 8.87b / Shares 167.1m; r=10.18% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 56.36 | EPS CAGR: 27.94% | SUE: -1.31 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 96.62 | Revenue CAGR: 11.39% | SUE: -0.95 | # QB: -1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+67% | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.71 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-8% | GrowthEPS=+29.2% | GrowthRev=+13.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.04 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=+12.1% | GrowthRev=+12.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67%