(PGY) Pagaya Technologies - Overview
Stock: AI Credit Assessment, Loan Origination Platform, Asset Evaluation
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 97.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.97 |
| Alpha | 45.81 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.466 |
| Beta Downside | 2.210 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 73.25% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.11 |
Description: PGY Pagaya Technologies January 13, 2026
Pagaya Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: PGY) is a New-York-based, product-focused technology firm that leverages proprietary artificial-intelligence and data-science platforms to help fintechs, banks, auto-finance firms, and residential-real-estate service providers originate and manage loan assets across the United States, Israel, and the Cayman Islands. Incorporated in 2016, Pagaya’s core offering is a suite of AI-driven software that automates credit underwriting, pricing, and secondary-market placement for its partners.
Recent market data (as of Q4 2023) shows Pagaya’s revenue running roughly $120 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 30 %, while the volume of AI-originated loans processed by its platform exceeded $5 billion in the same period. The company’s growth is being propelled by two broader sector trends: (1) accelerated adoption of AI in credit underwriting, which is forecast to expand at a 15 % compound annual growth rate through 2028, and (2) a tightening U.S. credit environment that is driving lenders toward more sophisticated risk-assessment tools to maintain margins.
For a deeper, data-driven view of Pagaya’s valuation dynamics and comparable peers, you might find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: -190.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 27.77% < 20% (prev 4.69%; Δ 23.08% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 190.9m > Net Income -190.8m |
| Net Debt (584.1m) to EBITDA (155.5m): 3.76 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (91.0m) vs 12m ago 25.19% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.01% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 4062 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 86.05% > 50% (prev 68.52%; Δ 17.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.37 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 155.5m / Interest Expense TTM 335.2m) |
Altman Z'' -1.01
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 419.7m - Total Current Liabilities 82.1m) / Total Assets 1.46b |
| B: -0.62 (Retained Earnings -897.0m / Total Assets 1.46b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 124.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.41b) |
| D: -1.06 (Book Value of Equity -942.2m / Total Liabilities 889.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.01 = CCC |
Beneish M -3.00
| DSRI: 1.22 (Receivables 155.0m/98.3m, Revenue 1.22b/939.3m) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 41.01% / 38.90%) |
| AQI: 0.92 (AQ_t 0.67 / AQ_t-1 0.73) |
| SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 1.22b / 939.3m) |
| TATA: -0.26 (NI -190.8m - CFO 190.9m) / TA 1.46b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PGY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.87%, over one month by -20.82%, over three months by -20.31% and over the past year by +68.38%.
Is PGY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PGY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 39 | 109.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 39 | 109.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 19.5 | 4.8% |
PGY Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.2512
P/B = 3.6961
P/EG = 0.05
Revenue TTM = 1.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 124.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 155.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 767.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.46m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 802.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 584.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.14b USD (1.56b + Debt 802.4m - CCE 218.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.37 (Ebit TTM 124.3m / Interest Expense TTM 335.2m)
EV/FCF = 12.56x (Enterprise Value 2.14b / FCF TTM 170.6m)
FCF Yield = 7.96% (FCF TTM 170.6m / Enterprise Value 2.14b)
FCF Margin = 14.03% (FCF TTM 170.6m / Revenue TTM 1.22b)
Net Margin = -15.69% (Net Income TTM -190.8m / Revenue TTM 1.22b)
Gross Margin = 41.01% ((Revenue TTM 1.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 717.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.99% (prev 39.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 2.14b / Total Assets 1.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.11% (Interest Expense 17.0m / Debt 802.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 98.2m (EBIT 124.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 5.11 (Total Current Assets 419.7m / Total Current Liabilities 82.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.71 (Debt 802.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 468.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.76 (Net Debt 584.1m / EBITDA 155.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.42 (Net Debt 584.1m / FCF TTM 170.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 374.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -13.50% (Net Income -190.8m / Total Assets 1.46b)
RoE = -50.99% (Net Income TTM -190.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 374.3m)
RoCE = 10.88% (EBIT 124.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 374.3m + L.T.Debt 767.5m))
RoIC = 9.24% (NOPAT 98.2m / Invested Capital 1.06b)
WACC = 10.47% (E(1.56b)/V(2.36b) * Re(15.0%) + D(802.4m)/V(2.36b) * Rd(2.11%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 15.0% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 20.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.98% ; FCFF base≈110.5m ; Y1≈72.6m ; Y5≈33.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 456.1m - Net Debt 584.1m = -128.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 51.49 | EPS CAGR: 24.65% | SUE: 1.24 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 98.56 | Revenue CAGR: 25.67% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.18 | Chg30d=-0.033 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+2.7% | Growth Revenue=+15.3%