(PRGS) Progress Software - Overview
Stock: Devops, Automation, Data, Security, Platform
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.72 |
| Alpha | -38.29 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.761 |
| Beta Downside | 0.429 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.77% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.19 |
Description: PRGS Progress Software January 14, 2026
Progress Software (NASDAQ:PRGS) is a U.S.-based systems-software firm that builds and manages AI-enhanced applications and digital-experience tools for enterprises worldwide. Its portfolio spans DevOps automation (Chef), decision-automation (Corticon), secure data connectivity (DataDirect), developer toolkits (NET/JavaScript UI components, AI-prompt libraries, testing suites), AI-driven network security (Flowmon), load-balancing (Kemp LoadMaster), data-agility (MarkLogic), managed file transfer (MOVEit), low-code development (OpenEdge), semantic AI (Semaphore), AI-powered collaboration (ShareFile), digital experience (Sitefinity), and infrastructure monitoring (WhatsUp Gold). The company also offers professional services such as implementation, custom development, and training, and sells through direct and indirect channels including ISVs, OEMs, system integrators, VARs, and distributors.
According to its FY 2023 earnings release, Progress generated approximately **$1.2 billion in revenue**, representing a **12 % year-over-year increase** driven primarily by growth in its cloud-based subscription (ARR) segment, which now accounts for roughly **55 % of total revenue**. Operating margin held steady near **22 %**, while free cash flow turned positive at **$150 million**, supporting ongoing R&D and strategic acquisitions. The stock trades at a forward-looking P/E of about **22×**, modestly below the systems-software peer average, suggesting a potential valuation edge if growth sustains.
Key macro drivers for Progress include the continued **enterprise shift to cloud-native architectures**, accelerated **AI integration across development and security stacks**, and robust **IT spending cycles** that historically grow at **5-7 % CAGR** in the U.S. software market. The companys focus on AI-enabled automation aligns with the broader industry trend where AI-augmented tools are projected to capture **15 % of total enterprise software spend by 2027**, providing a tailwind for its high-margin subscription offerings.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of PRGS’s valuation relative to peers, you might explore the analytics platform **ValueRay**, which aggregates real-time financial metrics and scenario modeling to help pinpoint high-expected-value opportunities.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 73.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -41.91% < 20% (prev -11.46%; Δ -30.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 235.2m > Net Income 73.1m |
| Net Debt (756.2m) to EBITDA (159.5m): 4.74 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (44.0m) vs 12m ago -2.63% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 80.82% > 18% (prev 0.83%; Δ 7999 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.23% > 50% (prev 29.81%; Δ 9.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 159.5m / Interest Expense TTM 70.8m) |
Altman Z'' -0.46
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 400.0m - Total Current Liabilities 809.7m) / Total Assets 2.46b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 127.4m / Total Assets 2.46b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 153.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.49b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 94.7m / Total Liabilities 1.98b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.46 = B |
Beneish M -2.82
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 272.3m/198.2m, Revenue 977.8m/753.4m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 80.82% / 82.68%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 1.30 (Revenue 977.8m / 753.4m) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 73.1m - CFO 235.2m) / TA 2.46b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.82 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of PRGS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.88%, over one month by +2.16%, over three months by +1.30% and over the past year by -25.88%.
Is PRGS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PRGS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 65.5 | 52.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 65.5 | 52.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 40 | -7.1% |
PRGS Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 7.391
P/S = 1.8864
P/B = 3.7857
P/EG = 1.4777
Revenue TTM = 977.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 153.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 159.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.49m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 851.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 756.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.60b USD (1.84b + Debt 851.0m - CCE 94.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.16 (Ebit TTM 153.3m / Interest Expense TTM 70.8m)
EV/FCF = 11.33x (Enterprise Value 2.60b / FCF TTM 229.5m)
FCF Yield = 8.82% (FCF TTM 229.5m / Enterprise Value 2.60b)
FCF Margin = 23.47% (FCF TTM 229.5m / Revenue TTM 977.8m)
Net Margin = 7.48% (Net Income TTM 73.1m / Revenue TTM 977.8m)
Gross Margin = 80.82% ((Revenue TTM 977.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 187.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.59% (prev 80.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.06 (Enterprise Value 2.60b / Total Assets 2.46b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.94% (Interest Expense 16.5m / Debt 851.0m)
Taxrate = 10.41% (8.49m / 81.6m)
NOPAT = 137.3m (EBIT 153.3m * (1 - 10.41%))
Current Ratio = 0.49 (Total Current Assets 400.0m / Total Current Liabilities 809.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.78 (Debt 851.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 478.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.74 (Net Debt 756.2m / EBITDA 159.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.30 (Net Debt 756.2m / FCF TTM 229.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 460.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.93% (Net Income 73.1m / Total Assets 2.46b)
RoE = 15.89% (Net Income TTM 73.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 460.1m)
RoCE = 10.21% (EBIT 153.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 460.1m + L.T.Debt 1.04b))
RoIC = 7.21% (NOPAT 137.3m / Invested Capital 1.90b)
WACC = 6.52% (E(1.84b)/V(2.70b) * Re(8.72%) + D(851.0m)/V(2.70b) * Rd(1.94%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 8.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.91%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.22% ; FCFF base≈220.2m ; Y1≈228.2m ; Y5≈259.6m
Fair Price DCF = 133.9 (EV 6.40b - Net Debt 756.2m = Equity 5.64b / Shares 42.1m; r=6.52% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 3.80% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 6.20 | EPS CAGR: 12.53% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.61 | Revenue CAGR: 15.98% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-05-31): EPS=1.40 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-11-30): EPS=5.88 | Chg30d=+0.191 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+2.7% | Growth Revenue=+1.6%
EPS next Year (2027-11-30): EPS=5.96 | Chg30d=+0.238 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+1.4% | Growth Revenue=+1.3%