PRGS Stock Analysis: Progress Software | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.495m USD | 12M Return: -20.6% | US7433121008 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 23.0M
EPS Trend: 96.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 96.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Progress Software Corporation (NASDAQ: PRGS) is a U.S.-based software provider that develops, deploys, and manages artificial intelligence (AI) powered applications and digital experiences for customers in the United States and internationally. Headquartered in Burlington, Massachusetts, and founded in 1981, the company operates within the GICS Systems Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector. As a small-cap stock with a market capitalization of approximately $1.64 billion, Progress Software serves a broad B2B customer base that includes end users, independent software vendors, original equipment manufacturers, system integrators, value-added resellers, and distributors.
The companys product portfolio spans a wide range of enterprise software categories. These include Agentic RAG (an Agentic Rag-as-a-Service platform), Automate MFT (cloud-native SaaS for automated file transfers), Chef (DevOps/DevSecOps automation), Corticon (decision automation), DataDirect (data connectivity tools for relational, NoSQL, Big Data, and SaaS data sources), Flowmon (AI-powered network security and visibility), and Kemp LoadMaster (application delivery and load balancing). The software industry context here is notable: many of these tools address the growing enterprise demand for AI integration, secure file transfers, and hybrid cloud infrastructure, areas that have become central to digital transformation initiatives.
Additional offerings include MarkLogic (data agility platform), MOVEit (managed file transfer), OpenEdge (application development), Semaphore (Semantic AI), ShareFile (AI-powered document collaboration), Sitefinity (digital experience platform), and WhatsUp Gold (network infrastructure monitoring). Progress Software also provides complementary professional services such as project management, implementation, custom software development, web-enabled applications, and training. This services layer is characteristic of enterprise software vendors, which typically generate recurring revenue from subscriptions and licenses while leveraging services to support customer adoption and integration.
- OpenEdge and ShareFile subscription revenue growth drives recurring mix
- DataDirect and MOVEit face file transfer security competition
- Acquisition pipeline and capital deployment shape margin expansion
- AI-powered product integration across Agentic RAG and Flowmon
| Net Income: 92.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.46% < 20% (prev -46.19%; Δ 37.73% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 328.3m > Net Income 92.4m |
| Net Debt (1.19b) to EBITDA (294.5m): 4.03 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (41.5m) vs 12m ago -5.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 79.66% > 18% (prev 81.11%; Δ -1.45% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.33% > 50% (prev 38.82%; Δ 3.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.64 > 6 (EBIT TTM 170.5m / Interest Expense TTM 64.6m) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 330.0m - Total Current Liabilities 414.6m) / Total Assets 2.30b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 133.4m / Total Assets 2.30b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 170.5m / Avg Total Assets 2.36b) |
| D: 0.30 (Book Value of Equity 530.0m / Total Liabilities 1.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.75 = B |
| DSRI: 0.85 (Receivables 169.0m/187.4m, Revenue 999.9m/940.1m) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 81.11% / 79.66%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.84 / AQ_t-1 0.84) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 999.9m / 940.1m) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 92.4m - CFO 328.3m) / TA 2.30b) |
| Beneish M = -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 37.21 with a total of 694,653 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.91%, over one month by -11.78%, over three months by -5.10% and over the past year by -20.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 34.90 (which is 6.2% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Progress Software has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PRGS.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 56.2 | 51% |
P/E Trailing = 18.3819
P/E Forward = 6.4683
P/S = 1.4896
P/B = 3.2918
P/EG = 1.2936
Revenue TTM = 999.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 170.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 294.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 7.75m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 34.6m
Net Debt = 1.19b USD (calculated: Debt 1.30b - CCE 113.7m)
Enterprise Value = 2.68b USD (1.50b + Debt 1.30b - CCE 113.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.64 (Ebit TTM 170.5m / Interest Expense TTM 64.6m)
EV/FCF = 8.40x (Enterprise Value 2.68b / FCF TTM 319.1m)
FCF Yield = 11.90% (FCF TTM 319.1m / Enterprise Value 2.68b)
FCF Margin = 31.92% (FCF TTM 319.1m / Revenue TTM 999.9m)
Net Margin = 9.24% (Net Income TTM 92.4m / Revenue TTM 999.9m)
Gross Margin = 79.66% ((Revenue TTM 999.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 203.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.74% (prev 82.30%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 2.68b / Total Assets 2.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.97% (Interest Expense 64.6m / Debt 1.30b)
Taxrate = 16.69% (18.5m / 110.9m)
NOPAT = 142.0m (EBIT 170.5m * (1 - 16.69%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 330.0m / Total Current Liabilities 414.6m)
Debt / Equity = 2.45 (Debt 1.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 530.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.03 (Net Debt 1.19b / EBITDA 294.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.72 (Net Debt 1.19b / FCF TTM 319.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 503.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.91% (Net Income 92.4m / Total Assets 2.30b)
RoE = 18.36% (Net Income TTM 92.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 503.3m)
RoCE = 11.04% (EBIT 170.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 503.3m + L.T.Debt 1.04b))
RoIC = 7.69% (NOPAT 142.0m / Invested Capital 1.85b)
WACC = 6.44% (E(1.50b)/V(2.79b) * Re(8.43%) + D(1.30b)/V(2.79b) * Rd(4.97%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 8.43% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -75.58 | Cagr: -2.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈266.0m ; Y1≈304.9m ; Y5≈448.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 136.2 (EV 6.75b - Net Debt 1.19b = Equity 5.57b / Shares 40.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.38 | EPS CAGR: 13.58% | SUE: 2.96 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 96.70 | Revenue CAGR: 17.71% | SUE: -0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-02-28): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=+1.14% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-11-30): EPS=6.18 | Chg30d=+0.96% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+8.0% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
EPS next Year (2027-11-30): EPS=7.17 | Chg30d=+15.16% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+16.1% | GrowthRev=+17.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +82% (up=14, down=0)