(PTON) Peloton Interactive - Overview
Stock: Connected Fitness Equipment, Membership Subscriptions, Fitness App
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 79.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.4% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.17 |
| Alpha | -59.57 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.019 |
| Beta Downside | 2.298 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 83.04% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.36 |
Description: PTON Peloton Interactive January 13, 2026
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) designs, manufactures, and sells connected fitness equipment-including the Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row-and monetizes the platform through all-access, rental, and App memberships. Distribution is mixed between direct-to-consumer e-commerce, company-run showrooms, and third-party retailers, while a leasing line extends the Bike+ to cost-sensitive customers. The firm was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York.
As of the most recent quarter (Q4 2023), Peloton reported ~2.2 million total connected-fitness subscribers, a 7 % YoY increase, and generated $1.31 billion in revenue, reflecting a 12 % growth rate despite a 4 % decline in average revenue per user (ARPU). The business is sensitive to discretionary-spending trends and the broader “home-fitness” macro-cycle, which has been moderated by the post-pandemic shift back to gyms and heightened competition from low-cost alternatives (e.g., NordicTrack, Echelon). Margins remain constrained, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 5 % and a cash-burn rate of $150 million per quarter, underscoring the importance of subscription retention and cost-discipline.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Peloton’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you may find the research tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -104.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.18 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 29.20% < 20% (prev 23.97%; Δ 5.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 392.4m > Net Income -104.2m |
| Net Debt (-87.1m) to EBITDA (127.0m): -0.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.90 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (430.0m) vs 12m ago 13.52% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.83% > 18% (prev 0.46%; Δ 5037 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 113.5% > 50% (prev 124.7%; Δ -11.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.34 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 127.0m / Interest Expense TTM 131.4m) |
Altman Z'' -8.41
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 1.51b - Total Current Liabilities 795.0m) / Total Assets 2.17b |
| B: -2.58 (Retained Earnings -5.59b / Total Assets 2.17b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 45.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.16b) |
| D: -2.22 (Book Value of Equity -5.58b / Total Liabilities 2.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -8.41 = D |
Beneish M -3.69
| DSRI: 0.76 (Receivables 70.4m/101.8m, Revenue 2.46b/2.69b) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 50.83% / 45.52%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.91 (Revenue 2.46b / 2.69b) |
| TATA: -0.23 (NI -104.2m - CFO 392.4m) / TA 2.17b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.69 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of PTON shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.38%, over one month by -8.61%, over three months by -23.29% and over the past year by -28.82%.
Is PTON a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PTON price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.4 | 82% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10.4 | 82% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.7 | -18.7% |
PTON Fundamental Data Overview January 27, 2026
P/S = 0.9868
P/B = 15.9963
Revenue TTM = 2.46b USD
EBIT TTM = 45.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 127.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 276.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -87.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.34b USD (2.42b + Debt 1.02b - CCE 1.10b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.34 (Ebit TTM 45.3m / Interest Expense TTM 131.4m)
EV/FCF = 6.14x (Enterprise Value 2.34b / FCF TTM 380.4m)
FCF Yield = 16.28% (FCF TTM 380.4m / Enterprise Value 2.34b)
FCF Margin = 15.49% (FCF TTM 380.4m / Revenue TTM 2.46b)
Net Margin = -4.24% (Net Income TTM -104.2m / Revenue TTM 2.46b)
Gross Margin = 50.83% ((Revenue TTM 2.46b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.21b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.51% (prev 54.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.08 (Enterprise Value 2.34b / Total Assets 2.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.18% (Interest Expense 32.3m / Debt 1.02b)
Taxrate = 4.79% (700.0k / 14.6m)
NOPAT = 43.1m (EBIT 45.3m * (1 - 4.79%))
Current Ratio = 1.90 (Total Current Assets 1.51b / Total Current Liabilities 795.0m)
Debt / Equity = -2.93 (negative equity) (Debt 1.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -347.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.69 (Net Debt -87.1m / EBITDA 127.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.23 (Net Debt -87.1m / FCF TTM 380.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -437.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.82% (Net Income -104.2m / Total Assets 2.17b)
RoE = 23.83% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -104.2m / Total Stockholder Equity -437.3m)
RoCE = 5.31% (EBIT 45.3m / Capital Employed (Equity -437.3m + L.T.Debt 1.29b))
RoIC = 4.06% (NOPAT 43.1m / Invested Capital 1.06b)
WACC = 10.30% (E(2.42b)/V(3.44b) * Re(13.35%) + D(1.02b)/V(3.44b) * Rd(3.18%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 13.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 8.94%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 60.62% ; FCFF base≈231.5m ; Y1≈152.0m ; Y5≈69.3m
Fair Price DCF = 2.64 (EV 974.5m - Net Debt -87.1m = Equity 1.06b / Shares 402.0m; r=10.30% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 90.83 | EPS CAGR: 17.80% | SUE: 0.51 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -71.34 | Revenue CAGR: -17.51% | SUE: 0.90 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=-0.003 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=12
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=-0.004 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+148.6% | Growth Revenue=-0.4%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=0.20 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+35.2% | Growth Revenue=+1.2%