(PTON) Peloton Interactive - Overview
Stock: Connected Fitness Equipment, Membership Subscriptions, Fitness App
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 81.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.51 |
| Alpha | -76.52 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.072 |
| Beta Downside | 2.428 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 79.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.40 |
Description: PTON Peloton Interactive January 13, 2026
Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) designs, manufactures, and sells connected fitness equipment-including the Bike, Bike+, Tread, Tread+, and Row-and monetizes the platform through all-access, rental, and App memberships. Distribution is mixed between direct-to-consumer e-commerce, company-run showrooms, and third-party retailers, while a leasing line extends the Bike+ to cost-sensitive customers. The firm was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in New York.
As of the most recent quarter (Q4 2023), Peloton reported ~2.2 million total connected-fitness subscribers, a 7 % YoY increase, and generated $1.31 billion in revenue, reflecting a 12 % growth rate despite a 4 % decline in average revenue per user (ARPU). The business is sensitive to discretionary-spending trends and the broader “home-fitness” macro-cycle, which has been moderated by the post-pandemic shift back to gyms and heightened competition from low-cost alternatives (e.g., NordicTrack, Echelon). Margins remain constrained, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of roughly 5 % and a cash-burn rate of $150 million per quarter, underscoring the importance of subscription retention and cost-discipline.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Peloton’s valuation dynamics and scenario analysis, you may find the research tools on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: -50.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.64% < 20% (prev 25.67%; Δ 5.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 357.6m > Net Income -50.9m |
| Net Debt (1.15b) to EBITDA (168.7m): 6.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (417.2m) vs 12m ago 8.20% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.73% > 18% (prev 0.47%; Δ 5125 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 114.1% > 50% (prev 124.2%; Δ -10.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.74 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 168.7m / Interest Expense TTM 128.3m) |
Altman Z'' -8.21
| A: 0.36 (Total Current Assets 1.56b - Total Current Liabilities 784.8m) / Total Assets 2.16b |
| B: -2.60 (Retained Earnings -5.63b / Total Assets 2.16b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 94.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.14b) |
| D: -2.25 (Book Value of Equity -5.62b / Total Liabilities 2.49b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -8.21 = D |
Beneish M -3.39
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 94.6m/96.8m, Revenue 2.44b/2.62b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 51.73% / 47.46%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 2.44b / 2.62b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -50.9m - CFO 357.6m) / TA 2.16b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.39 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PTON shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -23.61%, over one month by -35.67%, over three months by -40.86% and over the past year by -48.66%.
Is PTON a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 12
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PTON price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8.1 | 83.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8.1 | 83.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.7 | -16.6% |
PTON Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/S = 0.8071
P/B = 15.9963
Revenue TTM = 2.44b USD
EBIT TTM = 94.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 168.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 276.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.33b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.15b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.12b USD (1.97b + Debt 2.33b - CCE 1.18b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.74 (Ebit TTM 94.4m / Interest Expense TTM 128.3m)
EV/FCF = 9.02x (Enterprise Value 3.12b / FCF TTM 345.4m)
FCF Yield = 11.08% (FCF TTM 345.4m / Enterprise Value 3.12b)
FCF Margin = 14.17% (FCF TTM 345.4m / Revenue TTM 2.44b)
Net Margin = -2.09% (Net Income TTM -50.9m / Revenue TTM 2.44b)
Gross Margin = 51.73% ((Revenue TTM 2.44b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 50.48% (prev 51.51%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.44 (Enterprise Value 3.12b / Total Assets 2.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.35% (Interest Expense 31.5m / Debt 2.33b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 74.6m (EBIT 94.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.98 (Total Current Assets 1.56b / Total Current Liabilities 784.8m)
Debt / Equity = -7.12 (negative equity) (Debt 2.33b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -326.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.81 (Net Debt 1.15b / EBITDA 168.7m)
Debt / FCF = 3.32 (Net Debt 1.15b / FCF TTM 345.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -394.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.38% (Net Income -50.9m / Total Assets 2.16b)
RoE = 12.90% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -50.9m / Total Stockholder Equity -394.7m)
RoCE = 10.55% (EBIT 94.4m / Capital Employed (Equity -394.7m + L.T.Debt 1.29b))
RoIC = 6.75% (NOPAT 74.6m / Invested Capital 1.10b)
WACC = 6.79% (E(1.97b)/V(4.30b) * Re(13.55%) + D(2.33b)/V(4.30b) * Rd(1.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.31%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 76.10% ; FCFF base≈267.8m ; Y1≈175.8m ; Y5≈80.2m
Fair Price DCF = 2.10 (EV 2.01b - Net Debt 1.15b = Equity 860.9m / Shares 409.7m; r=6.79% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 89.91 | EPS CAGR: 16.75% | SUE: -0.39 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -60.00 | Revenue CAGR: -9.74% | SUE: -1.78 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.023 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=0.15 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+149.9% | Growth Revenue=-2.4%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=+0.062 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+72.6% | Growth Revenue=+1.0%