(RAIL) Freightcar America - Overview
Stock: Railcars, Components, Rebuilds, Leasing, Parts
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 72.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.21 |
| Alpha | -25.65 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.643 |
| Beta Downside | 1.217 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 71.67% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.72 |
Description: RAIL Freightcar America January 03, 2026
FreightCar America (NASDAQ:RAIL) designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of railcars and related components for bulk-commodity and containerized freight across the United States and Mexico. The business is split into a Manufacturing segment that produces new cars-including boxcars, hoppers, flatcars, gondolas, and specialty steel-alloy units-and a Parts segment that supplies forged, cast, and fabricated components, as well as offers rebuild, conversion, and leasing services for both new and used equipment.
According to the company’s most recent 10-K (FY 2023), FreightCar America generated roughly **$550 million in revenue**, a decline of about **10 % year-over-year**, reflecting softer demand in the coal and steel sectors. The firm reported an **order backlog of $200 million**, indicating that while current utilization hovers near **85 %**, future production is still constrained by limited new-car orders. Net income remained negative, driven by higher raw-material costs and under-utilized capacity.
Key macro drivers for FreightCar America include the **U.S. rail-freight volume trend**, which has risen modestly (~2 % YoY) on the back of intermodal growth (≈3 % YoY) and a gradual recovery in bulk-commodity shipments as infrastructure spending picks up. Conversely, a prolonged downturn in coal transport and cyclical steel demand can suppress new-car orders, making the company’s diversification into parts and leasing a critical hedge.
For a deeper quantitative view, you might explore the ValueRay platform’s rail-car segment dashboard to assess how FreightCar America stacks up against peers and macro trends.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 89.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -17.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 17.20% < 20% (prev 11.54%; Δ 5.67% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 30.6m > Net Income 89.3m |
| Net Debt (-15.1m) to EBITDA (26.1m): -0.58 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (31.9m) vs 12m ago 1.70% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.09% > 18% (prev 0.11%; Δ 1498 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 174.9% > 50% (prev 222.9%; Δ -48.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.39 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 26.1m / Interest Expense TTM 14.4m) |
Altman Z'' 0.17
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 221.1m - Total Current Liabilities 132.8m) / Total Assets 340.8m |
| B: -0.49 (Retained Earnings -165.9m / Total Assets 340.8m) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 19.9m / Avg Total Assets 293.4m) |
| D: -0.38 (Book Value of Equity -162.9m / Total Liabilities 431.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.17 = B |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.43 (Receivables 32.5m/24.3m, Revenue 513.1m/548.3m) |
| GMI: 0.70 (GM 15.09% / 10.60%) |
| AQI: 35.36 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 513.1m / 548.3m) |
| TATA: 0.17 (NI 89.3m - CFO 30.6m) / TA 340.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: 17.56 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of RAIL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.08%, over one month by +15.29%, over three months by +49.70% and over the past year by -6.68%.
Is RAIL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the RAIL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15.3 | 23.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15.3 | 23.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 13 | 4.5% |
RAIL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.3132
P/S = 0.4291
P/B = 3.1742
P/EG = -30.08
Revenue TTM = 513.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 19.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 26.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 104.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.15m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 47.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -15.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 205.0m USD (220.2m + Debt 47.6m - CCE 62.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.39 (Ebit TTM 19.9m / Interest Expense TTM 14.4m)
EV/FCF = 7.53x (Enterprise Value 205.0m / FCF TTM 27.2m)
FCF Yield = 13.28% (FCF TTM 27.2m / Enterprise Value 205.0m)
FCF Margin = 5.31% (FCF TTM 27.2m / Revenue TTM 513.1m)
Net Margin = 17.40% (Net Income TTM 89.3m / Revenue TTM 513.1m)
Gross Margin = 15.09% ((Revenue TTM 513.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 435.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 15.08% (prev 15.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 205.0m / Total Assets 340.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.74% (Interest Expense 4.64m / Debt 47.6m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 15.8m (EBIT 19.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.66 (Total Current Assets 221.1m / Total Current Liabilities 132.8m)
Debt / Equity = -0.52 (negative equity) (Debt 47.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -90.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.58 (Net Debt -15.1m / EBITDA 26.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.56 (Net Debt -15.1m / FCF TTM 27.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -105.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 30.44% (Net Income 89.3m / Total Assets 340.8m)
RoE = -84.65% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 89.3m / Total Stockholder Equity -105.5m)
RoCE = -2423 % (out of range, set to none) (EBIT 19.9m / Capital Employed (Equity -105.5m + L.T.Debt 104.7m))
RoIC = 629.9% (NOPAT 15.8m / Invested Capital 2.50m)
WACC = 11.21% (E(220.2m)/V(267.8m) * Re(11.97%) + D(47.6m)/V(267.8m) * Rd(9.74%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 3.89%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 57.30% ; FCFF base≈41.4m ; Y1≈27.2m ; Y5≈12.4m
Fair Price DCF = 9.06 (EV 157.7m - Net Debt -15.1m = Equity 172.8m / Shares 19.1m; r=11.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 23.58 | EPS CAGR: 1.62% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 62.81 | Revenue CAGR: 22.49% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.77 | Chg30d=+0.050 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+40.0% | Growth Revenue=+15.3%