RPD Stock Analysis: Rapid7 | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 525m USD | 12M Return: -61.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 13.8M
EPS Trend: 40.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 8
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Rapid7, Inc. (NASDAQ: RPD) is a U.S. cybersecurity software and services provider founded in 2000 and headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts. Classified in the GICS Systems Software sub-industry, the company sells its offerings under the Rapid7, Nexpose, and Metasploit brands and generates revenue primarily through a mix of recurring software subscriptions and higher-margin managed and professional services.
Its product portfolio centers on a unified data-collection layer - including the Rapid7 Agent, Network Sensor, and Cloud Event Data Harvesting - that gathers telemetry across on-premises and cloud environments. Built on this layer, the company offers Managed Threat Complete (managed detection and response), Incident Command (SIEM/extended detection and response), Threat Intelligence, Managed Digital Risk Protection, and Incident Response Services.
Rapid7 also delivers exposure and attack-surface management solutions such as Exposure Command, Surface Command (Cyber Asset Attack Surface Management), and Vector Command (continuous red-teaming), alongside Cloud Security, Application Security, and Vulnerability Management products. Complementary advisory and professional services help customers offload day-to-day security operations, a common buying pattern in the enterprise cybersecurity market where skills shortages drive demand for outsourced, outcome-based engagements.
- ARR growth deceleration pressures subscription revenue outlook
- Profitability initiatives narrow losses and improve free cash flow
- Competitive pressure from CrowdStrike and SentinelOne intensifies
| Net Income: 22.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.57 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -35.09% < 20% (prev 16.90%; Δ -51.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 163.5m > Net Income 22.4m |
| Net Debt (366.9m) to EBITDA (82.5m): 4.45 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (66.9m) vs 12m ago 4.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 69.70% > 18% (prev 70.59%; Δ -0.88% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.08% > 50% (prev 51.63%; Δ -0.55% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.65 > 6 (EBIT TTM 37.5m / Interest Expense TTM 10.3m) |
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 853.0m - Total Current Liabilities 1.15b) / Total Assets 1.72b |
| B: -0.56 (Retained Earnings -963.5m / Total Assets 1.72b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 37.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.68b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 174.8m / Total Liabilities 1.54b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.71 = D |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 138.5m/140.5m, Revenue 859.2m/849.2m) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 70.59% / 69.70%) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.46 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 859.2m / 849.2m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 22.4m - CFO 163.5m) / TA 1.72b) |
| Beneish M = -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.29 with a total of 2,468,800 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +31.40%, over one month by +21.20%, over three months by +60.73% and over the past year by -61.88%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.60 (which is 7.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Rapid7 has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.56. Therefore, it is recommended to hold RPD.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.3 | -21.5% |
P/E Trailing = 22.4286
P/E Forward = 4.852
P/S = 0.5919
P/B = 2.8947
P/EG = 0.4112
Revenue TTM = 859.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 37.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 82.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 295.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 615.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 72.0m
Net Debt = 366.9m USD (calculated: Debt 1.04b - CCE 670.3m)
Enterprise Value = 891.5m USD (524.6m + Debt 1.04b - CCE 670.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.65 (Ebit TTM 37.5m / Interest Expense TTM 10.3m)
EV/FCF = 6.08x (Enterprise Value 891.5m / FCF TTM 146.7m)
FCF Yield = 16.46% (FCF TTM 146.7m / Enterprise Value 891.5m)
FCF Margin = 17.08% (FCF TTM 146.7m / Revenue TTM 859.2m)
Net Margin = 2.61% (Net Income TTM 22.4m / Revenue TTM 859.2m)
Gross Margin = 69.70% ((Revenue TTM 859.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 260.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.12% (prev 68.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.52 (Enterprise Value 891.5m / Total Assets 1.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.99% (Interest Expense 10.3m / Debt 1.04b)
Taxrate = 17.64% (4.80m / 27.2m)
NOPAT = 30.9m (EBIT 37.5m * (1 - 17.64%))
Current Ratio = 0.74 (Total Current Assets 853.0m / Total Current Liabilities 1.15b)
Debt / Equity = 5.93 (Debt 1.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 174.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.45 (Net Debt 366.9m / EBITDA 82.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.50 (Net Debt 366.9m / FCF TTM 146.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 136.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.33% (Net Income 22.4m / Total Assets 1.72b)
RoE = 16.38% (Net Income TTM 22.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 136.8m)
RoCE = 8.67% (EBIT 37.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 136.8m + L.T.Debt 295.7m))
RoIC = 2.71% (NOPAT 30.9m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
WACC = 4.02% (E(524.6m)/V(1.56b) * Re(10.36%) + D(1.04b)/V(1.56b) * Rd(0.99%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 10.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 11.11 | Cagr: -4.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.68% ; FCFF base≈154.5m ; Y1≈139.9m ; Y5≈120.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 23.20 (EV 1.92b - Net Debt 366.9m = Equity 1.55b / Shares 66.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -11.71% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 40.13 | EPS CAGR: 15.01% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.27 | Revenue CAGR: 5.81% | SUE: 1.10 | # QB: 8
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-5.76% | Revisions=-70% | Analysts=24
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-2.08% | Revisions=-54% | Analysts=24
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.56 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+8% | GrowthEPS=-25.2% | GrowthRev=-2.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.55 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=-22% | GrowthEPS=-0.2% | GrowthRev=-0.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -37% (up=27, down=60)