(SAVA) Cassava Sciences - Overview
Stock: Drug, Diagnostic, Alzheimer, Clinical
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 109% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -26.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.29 |
| Alpha | -32.24 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.982 |
| Beta Downside | 0.879 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 96.61% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.61 |
Description: SAVA Cassava Sciences January 19, 2026
Cassava Sciences (NASDAQ:SAVA) is a clinical-stage biotech focused on neurodegenerative disorders. The firm, incorporated in 1998 and headquartered in Austin, Texas, rebranded from Pain Therapeutics in March 2019. Its publicly disclosed pipeline centers on simufilam, a small-molecule candidate that has completed a Phase 2 trial for Alzheimer’s disease, and SavaDx, a blood-based diagnostic intended to identify Alzheimer’s pathology.
As of the most recent 10-Q (Q3 2024), Cassava reported cash and cash equivalents of roughly $130 million, giving it an estimated 12-month runway at current burn rates (~$20 million per quarter). The company’s R&D expense grew 38 % YoY, reflecting ongoing Phase 2b/3 preparations for simufilam. Analyst consensus (as of 1 Nov 2024) places the market-cap at ≈ $350 million, implying a price-to-cash-runway multiple of ~2.7×, a level that is modest compared with peers such as Biogen (BIIB) and Eli Lilly (LLY) which command higher valuations due to larger scale and diversified pipelines.
The Alzheimer’s therapeutics market is projected to exceed $10 billion by 2030, driven by an aging population and increasing diagnostic uptake; however, the sector remains highly volatile, with recent FDA setbacks for several amyloid-targeting drugs underscoring regulatory risk. Cassava’s value proposition hinges on whether simufilam can demonstrate a statistically and clinically meaningful cognitive benefit in upcoming Phase 3 data, a factor that will heavily influence both its valuation and partnership prospects. For a deeper dive into Cassava’s risk-adjusted upside, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay to see how its metrics compare against sector benchmarks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.5
| Net Income: -106.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.65 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -29.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2952 % < 20% (prev 6197 %; Δ -3246 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.65 > 3% & CFO -83.8m > Net Income -106.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (48.3m) vs 12m ago 0.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.17% > 50% (prev 1.05%; Δ 0.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.65 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -65.2m / Interest Expense TTM 40.0m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.47 (Total Current Assets 108.9m - Total Current Liabilities 48.0m) / Total Assets 129.7m |
| B: -3.73 (Retained Earnings -483.5m / Total Assets 129.7m) |
| C: -0.37 (EBIT TTM -66.1m / Avg Total Assets 176.7m) |
| D: -10.04 (Book Value of Equity -483.5m / Total Liabilities 48.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -22.13 = D |
Beneish M -4.00
| DSRI: 0.19 (Receivables 817.0k/5.00m, Revenue 2.06m/2.35m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.0 (AQ_t 0.0 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 0.88 (Revenue 2.06m / 2.35m) |
| TATA: -0.17 (NI -106.0m - CFO -83.8m) / TA 129.7m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -4.55 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of SAVA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.01%, over one month by -4.25%, over three months by -31.42% and over the past year by -13.25%.
Is SAVA a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the SAVA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 8 | 294.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 8 | 294.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1.2 | -41.4% |
SAVA Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/B = 1.2082
Revenue TTM = 2.06m USD
EBIT TTM = -66.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = -65.2m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = unknown
Net Debt = -106.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 35.9m USD (142.0m + (null Debt) - CCE 106.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.65 (Ebit TTM -66.1m / Interest Expense TTM 40.0m)
EV/FCF = -0.43x (Enterprise Value 35.9m / FCF TTM -83.9m)
FCF Yield = -233.4% (FCF TTM -83.9m / Enterprise Value 35.9m)
FCF Margin = -4069 % (FCF TTM -83.9m / Revenue TTM 2.06m)
Net Margin = -5142 % (Net Income TTM -106.0m / Revenue TTM 2.06m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 2.06m - Cost of Revenue TTM 39.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.28 (Enterprise Value 35.9m / Total Assets 129.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = unknown (Interest Expense 2.63m / Debt none)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -52.2m (EBIT -66.1m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 108.9m / Total Current Liabilities 48.0m)
Debt / Equity = unknown (Debt none)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.63 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -106.1m / EBITDA -65.2m)
Debt / FCF = 1.26 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -106.1m / FCF TTM -83.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 110.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -59.99% (Net Income -106.0m / Total Assets 129.7m)
RoE = -95.77% (Net Income TTM -106.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 110.7m)
RoCE = -80.88% (EBIT -66.1m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 129.7m - Current Liab 48.0m))
RoIC = -47.15% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -52.2m / Invested Capital 110.7m)
WACC = 9.53% (E(142.0m)/V(142.0m) * Re(9.53%) + (debt-free company))
Discount Rate = 9.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.99%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -83.9m)
EPS Correlation: 19.14 | EPS CAGR: 17.48% | SUE: 0.49 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 32.57 | Revenue CAGR: 49.82% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.31 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-1.22 | Chg30d=-0.060 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+36.8% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%