(SFM) Sprouts Farmers Market - Overview
Stock: Produce, Organic, Vitamins, Bulk, Wine
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.96% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.87 |
| Alpha | -73.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.767 |
| Beta Downside | 0.934 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.05% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.44 |
Description: SFM Sprouts Farmers Market January 03, 2026
Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ:SFM) operates a U.S. chain of grocery stores focused on fresh, natural, and organic products, ranging from perishable items like produce, meat alternatives, and dairy to non-perishable categories such as vitamins, bulk foods, and natural body-care. Founded in 1943 and headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, the company sells exclusively under the Sprouts brand.
Key performance indicators for Sprouts typically include same-store sales growth (which has averaged around 5-7% YoY pre-COVID) and average basket size, which tends to be higher than the broader grocery sector due to the premium nature of its product mix. The chain’s expansion strategy targets midsize markets with strong health-conscious demographics, leveraging a higher proportion of private-label organic items that command gross margins of roughly 30-35%.
Sector drivers such as rising consumer demand for clean-label foods, sustained interest in plant-based proteins, and inflation-adjusted pricing power are central to Sprouts’ growth outlook; however, supply-chain volatility for fresh produce remains a material risk. For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see ValueRay’s Sprouts Farmers Market analysis page.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 513.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.52 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.42% < 20% (prev 1.05%; Δ -0.63% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 702.3m > Net Income 513.4m |
| Net Debt (1.54b) to EBITDA (823.6m): 1.87 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (98.7m) vs 12m ago -2.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.06% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 3868 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 227.8% > 50% (prev 207.0%; Δ 20.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 277.0 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 823.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m) |
Altman Z'' 1.98
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 817.5m - Total Current Liabilities 781.5m) / Total Assets 4.01b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 602.6m / Total Assets 4.01b) |
| C: 0.18 (EBIT TTM 671.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.80b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 602.7m / Total Liabilities 2.58b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.98 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.03
| DSRI: 2.22 (Receivables 64.8m/25.1m, Revenue 8.65b/7.42b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 39.06% / 38.00%) |
| AQI: 0.90 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.17) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 8.65b / 7.42b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 513.4m - CFO 702.3m) / TA 4.01b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.03 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of SFM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.06%, over one month by -12.57%, over three months by -13.51% and over the past year by -60.39%.
Is SFM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 10
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SFM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 115.9 | 72.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 115.9 | 72.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 69.6 | 3.4% |
SFM Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.5786
P/S = 0.8008
P/B = 4.8126
P/EG = 0.9679
Revenue TTM = 8.65b USD
EBIT TTM = 671.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 823.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.86b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 172.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.86b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.54b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.47b USD (6.93b + Debt 1.86b - CCE 322.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 277.0 (Ebit TTM 671.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.42m)
EV/FCF = 18.50x (Enterprise Value 8.47b / FCF TTM 457.6m)
FCF Yield = 5.40% (FCF TTM 457.6m / Enterprise Value 8.47b)
FCF Margin = 5.29% (FCF TTM 457.6m / Revenue TTM 8.65b)
Net Margin = 5.93% (Net Income TTM 513.4m / Revenue TTM 8.65b)
Gross Margin = 39.06% ((Revenue TTM 8.65b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.27b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.68% (prev 38.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.11 (Enterprise Value 8.47b / Total Assets 4.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.04% (Interest Expense 690.0k / Debt 1.86b)
Taxrate = 24.02% (38.0m / 158.1m)
NOPAT = 510.1m (EBIT 671.3m * (1 - 24.02%))
Current Ratio = 1.05 (Total Current Assets 817.5m / Total Current Liabilities 781.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.30 (Debt 1.86b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.43b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.87 (Net Debt 1.54b / EBITDA 823.6m)
Debt / FCF = 3.36 (Net Debt 1.54b / FCF TTM 457.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.51% (Net Income 513.4m / Total Assets 4.01b)
RoE = 38.03% (Net Income TTM 513.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.35b)
RoCE = 20.92% (EBIT 671.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.35b + L.T.Debt 1.86b))
RoIC = 37.78% (NOPAT 510.1m / Invested Capital 1.35b)
WACC = 6.90% (E(6.93b)/V(8.79b) * Re(8.74%) + D(1.86b)/V(8.79b) * Rd(0.04%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 8.74% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.72%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.89% ; FCFF base≈416.3m ; Y1≈437.1m ; Y5≈510.4m
Fair Price DCF = 100.8 (EV 11.36b - Net Debt 1.54b = Equity 9.82b / Shares 97.4m; r=6.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.43% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 23.85 | EPS CAGR: -47.24% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.36 | Revenue CAGR: 10.90% | SUE: -1.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.85 | Chg30d=+0.008 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.77 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+9.5% | Growth Revenue=+10.0%