(SGML) Sigma Lithium Resources - Overview
Stock: Lithium, Spodumene, Battery-Grade
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 143% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.63% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.57 |
| Alpha | -12.51 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.602 |
| Beta Downside | 1.915 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 89.91% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.27 |
Description: SGML Sigma Lithium Resources December 27, 2025
Sigma Lithium Corp (NASDAQ: SGML) is a Brazil-based pure-play lithium miner that owns 100 % of four contiguous lithium projects-Grota do Cirilo, Genipapo, Santa Clara, and São José-spanning roughly 185 km² in Minas Gerais’ Araçuaí and Itinga districts. The company focuses on supplying spodumene concentrate to the lithium-ion battery supply chain that powers electric vehicles (EVs) and grid-scale storage.
As of the latest NI 43-101 update (Q2 2024), Sigma’s combined indicated and inferred resources total approximately 4.2 million tonnes of lithium-carbonate equivalent (LCE) with an average grade of 1.2 % Li₂O. The firm targets a 2026 ramp-up to 30,000 t/yr of spodumene concentrate, aiming for a cash-cost benchmark of under $4,500 per tonne LCE-competitive against peers in South America. Recent financing includes a $150 million senior note issuance and a strategic off-take agreement with POSCO, which secures a minimum of 20,000 t/yr of concentrate for the next five years.
Global EV sales are projected to grow >30 % YoY through 2028, tightening lithium supply and driving premium pricing for low-cost, high-grade projects like Sigma’s; monitoring Brazil’s mining tax regime and infrastructure constraints is essential for valuation. For a deeper, data-driven dive into SGML’s risk-adjusted upside, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth a look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -37.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -13.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -40.87% < 20% (prev -18.80%; Δ -22.06% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.07 > 3% & CFO -24.2m > Net Income -37.4m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.49 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (111.3m) vs 12m ago 0.44% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.93% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1680 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 38.11% > 50% (prev 31.16%; Δ 6.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.14 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -15.8m / Interest Expense TTM 21.8m) |
Altman Z'' -3.80
| A: -0.19 (Total Current Assets 62.8m - Total Current Liabilities 128.3m) / Total Assets 342.8m |
| B: -0.74 (Retained Earnings -252.7m / Total Assets 342.8m) |
| C: -0.06 (EBIT TTM -25.0m / Avg Total Assets 420.6m) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 64.0m / Total Liabilities 259.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.80 = D |
Beneish M -1.50
| DSRI: 1.29 (Receivables 26.8m/20.1m, Revenue 160.3m/155.3m) |
| GMI: 0.82 (GM 16.93% / 13.81%) |
| AQI: 3.48 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 160.3m / 155.3m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -37.4m - CFO -24.2m) / TA 342.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.50 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of SGML shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.36%, over one month by -24.71%, over three months by +141.03% and over the past year by +9.20%.
Is SGML a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SGML price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.2 | 40.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.2 | 40.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 12.2 | -0.2% |
SGML Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/E Forward = 30.2115
P/S = 10.1878
P/B = 17.3651
Revenue TTM = 160.3m CAD
EBIT TTM = -25.0m CAD
EBITDA TTM = -15.8m CAD
Long Term Debt = 113.3m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.9m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 166.4m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 160.3m CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.09b CAD (1.93b + Debt 166.4m - CCE 6.11m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.14 (Ebit TTM -25.0m / Interest Expense TTM 21.8m)
EV/FCF = -65.08x (Enterprise Value 2.09b / FCF TTM -32.2m)
FCF Yield = -1.54% (FCF TTM -32.2m / Enterprise Value 2.09b)
FCF Margin = -20.08% (FCF TTM -32.2m / Revenue TTM 160.3m)
Net Margin = -23.32% (Net Income TTM -37.4m / Revenue TTM 160.3m)
Gross Margin = 16.93% ((Revenue TTM 160.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 133.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -5.37% (prev -39.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.11 (Enterprise Value 2.09b / Total Assets 342.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.69% (Interest Expense 6.14m / Debt 166.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -19.7m (EBIT -25.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.49 (Total Current Assets 62.8m / Total Current Liabilities 128.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.99 (Debt 166.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 83.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -10.13 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 160.3m / EBITDA -15.8m)
Debt / FCF = -4.98 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 160.3m / FCF TTM -32.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 112.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.89% (Net Income -37.4m / Total Assets 342.8m)
RoE = -33.39% (Net Income TTM -37.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 112.0m)
RoCE = -11.09% (EBIT -25.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 112.0m + L.T.Debt 113.3m))
RoIC = -6.80% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -19.7m / Invested Capital 290.5m)
WACC = 11.11% (E(1.93b)/V(2.10b) * Re(11.82%) + D(166.4m)/V(2.10b) * Rd(3.69%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 4.83%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -32.2m)
EPS Correlation: 1.79 | EPS CAGR: 4.02% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 79.28 | Revenue CAGR: 109.9% | SUE: -0.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.51 | Chg30d=+0.270 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+610.0% | Growth Revenue=+153.4%