(SIGI) Selective Insurance - Overview
Stock: Casualty, Property, Flood, Commercial, Investments
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.94% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.27% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.11% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 21.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 25.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.60% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 |
| Alpha | -1.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.381 |
| Beta Downside | 0.365 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 30.46% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
Description: SIGI Selective Insurance January 08, 2026
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGI) is a U.S.-based property-and-casualty carrier that operates through four segments: Standard Commercial Lines, Standard Personal Lines, Excess & Surplus (E&S) Lines, and an Investment portfolio. The firm writes casualty policies (workers’ compensation, general liability), property coverage (commercial and personal), and flood insurance, distributing products via independent retail agents and wholesale general agents to businesses, nonprofits, local governments, and individuals.
In its most recent fiscal year (2023), SIGI reported net written premium of roughly $1.5 billion and a combined ratio of about 95%, indicating underwriting profitability marginally above breakeven. The Investment segment contributed ~15% of total earnings, benefitting from a steepening yield curve that lifted fixed-income returns. However, the company’s exposure to natural-catastrophe losses remains a material risk, as the sector’s loss ratio has been trending upward with increasing severe weather events.
Key drivers for SIGI’s outlook include U.S. interest-rate dynamics (which affect investment income), the underwriting cycle in the P&C market, and regulatory trends around flood insurance pricing. Assuming current rate environments persist, the firm’s diversified mix of standard and E&S lines should provide a buffer against cyclical underwriting volatility. For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore ValueRay’s analytics platform to compare SIGI’s risk-adjusted performance against peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 466.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 205.6% < 20% (prev -111.4%; Δ 317.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 856.8m > Net Income 466.4m |
| Net Debt (901.6m) to EBITDA (857.2m): 1.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 650.4 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (60.7m) vs 12m ago -0.98% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.19% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 3391 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.23% > 50% (prev 35.97%; Δ 1.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.75 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 857.2m / Interest Expense TTM 49.3m) |
Altman Z'' 6.10
| A: 0.72 (Total Current Assets 10.99b - Total Current Liabilities 16.9m) / Total Assets 15.16b |
| B: 0.23 (Retained Earnings 3.50b / Total Assets 15.16b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 579.0m / Avg Total Assets 14.33b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 3.56b / Total Liabilities 11.55b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.10 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.93
| DSRI: 0.55 (Receivables 1.53b/2.53b, Revenue 5.34b/4.86b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 34.19% / 28.39%) |
| AQI: 0.28 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.97) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 5.34b / 4.86b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 466.4m - CFO 856.8m) / TA 15.16b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.93 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of SIGI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.45%, over one month by +5.40%, over three months by +15.30% and over the past year by +8.90%.
Is SIGI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SIGI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 85.8 | -4.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 85.8 | -4.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 91 | 1% |
SIGI Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.0375
P/S = 1.0199
P/B = 1.5888
P/EG = 1.86
Revenue TTM = 5.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 579.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 857.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 898.1m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 901.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 901.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -3.11b USD (5.44b + Debt 901.9m - CCE 9.46b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.75 (Ebit TTM 579.0m / Interest Expense TTM 49.3m)
EV/FCF = -3.76x (Enterprise Value -3.11b / FCF TTM 828.0m)
FCF Yield = -26.60% (FCF TTM 828.0m / Enterprise Value -3.11b)
FCF Margin = 15.51% (FCF TTM 828.0m / Revenue TTM 5.34b)
Net Margin = 8.74% (Net Income TTM 466.4m / Revenue TTM 5.34b)
Gross Margin = 34.19% ((Revenue TTM 5.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.51b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 12.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.21 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -3.11b / Total Assets 15.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.46% (Interest Expense 13.2m / Debt 901.9m)
Taxrate = 20.86% (40.9m / 196.1m)
NOPAT = 458.2m (EBIT 579.0m * (1 - 20.86%))
Current Ratio = 650.4 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 10.99b / Total Current Liabilities 16.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 901.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.61b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.05 (Net Debt 901.6m / EBITDA 857.2m)
Debt / FCF = 1.09 (Net Debt 901.6m / FCF TTM 828.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.43b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.25% (Net Income 466.4m / Total Assets 15.16b)
RoE = 13.59% (Net Income TTM 466.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.43b)
RoCE = 13.37% (EBIT 579.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.43b + L.T.Debt 898.1m))
RoIC = 11.26% (NOPAT 458.2m / Invested Capital 4.07b)
WACC = 6.44% (E(5.44b)/V(6.34b) * Re(7.32%) + D(901.9m)/V(6.34b) * Rd(1.46%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.32% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.99% ; FCFF base≈924.4m ; Y1≈1.09b ; Y5≈1.65b
Fair Price DCF = 663.1 (EV 40.76b - Net Debt 901.6m = Equity 39.85b / Shares 60.1m; r=6.44% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 18.55% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 13.77 | EPS CAGR: 17.36% | SUE: 0.50 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.78 | Revenue CAGR: 13.60% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=+0.017 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.02 | Chg30d=+0.059 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+8.6% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.76 | Chg30d=+0.031 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+9.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.0%