(SMTC) Semtech - Overview
Stock: Semiconductors, Iot Modules, Connectivity Services, Protection Devices
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 67.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.81 |
| Alpha | -0.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.292 |
| Beta Downside | 2.445 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 68.45% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.57 |
Description: SMTC Semtech January 10, 2026
Semtech Corp. (NASDAQ: SMTC) designs, manufactures and sells semiconductor and IoT connectivity solutions across three segments – Signal Integrity, Analog Mixed-Signal & Wireless, and IoT Systems & Connectivity – serving OEMs, solution providers and end-users in data-center, telecom, industrial and consumer markets worldwide.
In FY 2023 the company generated ≈ $2.2 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of ~ 55 % and free-cash-flow conversion of roughly 70 %, underscoring a relatively high-margin, cash-generating business model for a mid-cap semiconductor firm.
Key growth drivers include the accelerating rollout of 5G infrastructure (which fuels demand for Semtech’s optical transceivers and RF components), the expanding data-center footprint (boosting need for high-speed signal-integrity ICs), and the broader IoT adoption curve in industrial automation and medical devices, all of which are projected to outpace the overall semiconductor CAGR of 5-6 % through 2027.
Semtech’s exposure to the “digital-infrastructure” theme is further supported by its strong position in power-management ICs (switching regulators, smart regulators and wireless-charging solutions), a segment that has seen FY 2023 R&D spend rise to ~ 8 % of revenue to stay ahead of efficiency-driven design cycles.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation of SMTC, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent model you can explore at your own pace.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 28.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.96 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.63% < 20% (prev 37.86%; Δ -2.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 153.2m > Net Income 28.5m |
| Net Debt (325.8m) to EBITDA (112.5m): 2.90 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (87.7m) vs 12m ago 16.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.05% > 18% (prev 0.49%; Δ 5156 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.73% > 50% (prev 61.73%; Δ 12.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.31 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 112.5m / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m) |
Altman Z'' 0.50
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 620.9m - Total Current Liabilities 255.1m) / Total Assets 1.41b |
| B: -0.29 (Retained Earnings -406.3m / Total Assets 1.41b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 67.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.39b) |
| D: -0.56 (Book Value of Equity -418.0m / Total Liabilities 746.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.50 = B |
Beneish M -3.08
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 164.8m/142.5m, Revenue 1.03b/851.2m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 52.05% / 48.97%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.48 / AQ_t-1 0.50) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 1.03b / 851.2m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 28.5m - CFO 153.2m) / TA 1.41b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SMTC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.46%, over one month by +11.70%, over three months by +23.77% and over the past year by +42.98%.
Is SMTC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SMTC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 83.4 | -3.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 83.4 | -3.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 89 | 2.9% |
SMTC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 36.63
P/S = 7.9107
P/B = 13.0502
P/EG = 3.389
Revenue TTM = 1.03b USD
EBIT TTM = 67.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 112.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 490.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 490.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 325.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.45b USD (8.12b + Debt 490.5m - CCE 164.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.31 (Ebit TTM 67.6m / Interest Expense TTM 51.5m)
EV/FCF = 59.15x (Enterprise Value 8.45b / FCF TTM 142.8m)
FCF Yield = 1.69% (FCF TTM 142.8m / Enterprise Value 8.45b)
FCF Margin = 13.91% (FCF TTM 142.8m / Revenue TTM 1.03b)
Net Margin = 2.78% (Net Income TTM 28.5m / Revenue TTM 1.03b)
Gross Margin = 52.05% ((Revenue TTM 1.03b - Cost of Revenue TTM 492.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.87% (prev 52.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.01 (Enterprise Value 8.45b / Total Assets 1.41b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.34% (Interest Expense 26.2m / Debt 490.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 53.4m (EBIT 67.6m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.43 (Total Current Assets 620.9m / Total Current Liabilities 255.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.74 (Debt 490.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 659.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.90 (Net Debt 325.8m / EBITDA 112.5m)
Debt / FCF = 2.28 (Net Debt 325.8m / FCF TTM 142.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 581.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.05% (Net Income 28.5m / Total Assets 1.41b)
RoE = 4.91% (Net Income TTM 28.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 581.0m)
RoCE = 6.31% (EBIT 67.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 581.0m + L.T.Debt 490.5m))
RoIC = 4.93% (NOPAT 53.4m / Invested Capital 1.08b)
WACC = 13.78% (E(8.12b)/V(8.61b) * Re(14.36%) + D(490.5m)/V(8.61b) * Rd(5.34%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 14.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 16.85%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 49.10% ; FCFF base≈97.8m ; Y1≈64.2m ; Y5≈29.3m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 295.8m - Net Debt 325.8m = -30.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -50.73 | EPS CAGR: -27.64% | SUE: -1.66 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 74.02 | Revenue CAGR: 9.41% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.43 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=14
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+28.3% | Growth Revenue=+13.5%