(SNCY) Sun Country Airlines - Overview
Stock: Passenger Flights, Cargo Flights, Charter Flights, Aircraft Leasing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 60.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 |
| Alpha | 10.79 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.007 |
| Beta Downside | 2.055 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 64.72% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.02 |
Description: SNCY Sun Country Airlines December 26, 2025
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) is a U.S.-based carrier that offers scheduled passenger flights, air cargo, charter services, and ancillary support such as crew, maintenance, insurance, and loyalty-program rewards. Its customer base spans leisure travelers, VFR (visiting-friends-and-relatives) passengers, charter groups, military contracts, sports teams, tour operators, and corporate clients, accessed through its website, call center, and travel-agent network.
The business is organized into two reporting segments-Passenger and Cargo. As of 31 Dec 2024 the fleet comprised 63 Boeing 737-NG aircraft: 45 configured for passengers, 12 dedicated to cargo, and 6 leased to third-party airlines. The carrier’s mixed-use model allows it to shift capacity between passenger and freight markets in response to seasonal demand fluctuations.
Key operating metrics that analysts watch include a 2023 load factor of roughly 84 % (above the industry average of 78 %), RASM of about $0.13 per seat-mile, and an EBITDA margin near 8 % after accounting for volatile fuel costs, which historically track roughly 70 % of total operating expenses. The airline’s cash position stood at approximately $150 million at year-end, providing a buffer against the current high-fuel-price environment and supporting potential fleet upgrades or lease-back transactions.
Sector-wide drivers that will likely impact Sun Country’s near-term performance are the rebound in leisure travel demand post-pandemic, the sensitivity of cargo yields to global supply-chain disruptions, and the ongoing labor-cost pressure in the airline industry.
For a deeper dive into Sun Country’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, the ValueRay platform offers a concise, data-driven overview.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 58.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.28% < 20% (prev -14.59%; Δ 6.31% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 168.8m > Net Income 58.1m |
| Net Debt (463.9m) to EBITDA (231.5m): 2.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (55.0m) vs 12m ago 0.38% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 56.86% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 5668 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 68.84% > 50% (prev 65.90%; Δ 2.94% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.74 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 231.5m / Interest Expense TTM 76.8m) |
Altman Z'' 0.78
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 284.8m - Total Current Liabilities 376.4m) / Total Assets 1.60b |
| B: 0.12 (Retained Earnings 191.8m / Total Assets 1.60b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 133.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.61b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 192.4m / Total Liabilities 993.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.78 = B |
Beneish M -3.44
| DSRI: 1.27 (Receivables 50.1m/37.8m, Revenue 1.11b/1.06b) |
| GMI: 0.31 (GM 56.86% / 17.37%) |
| AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 1.11b / 1.06b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 58.1m - CFO 168.8m) / TA 1.60b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.44 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of SNCY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +24.52%, over one month by +42.09%, over three months by +76.27% and over the past year by +35.06%.
Is SNCY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SNCY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19 | -13% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | -13% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 24.8 | 13.3% |
SNCY Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.3636
P/S = 0.935
P/B = 1.6707
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 133.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 231.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 226.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 99.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 575.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 463.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.43b USD (1.03b + Debt 575.8m - CCE 176.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.74 (Ebit TTM 133.3m / Interest Expense TTM 76.8m)
EV/FCF = 10.61x (Enterprise Value 1.43b / FCF TTM 134.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.43% (FCF TTM 134.9m / Enterprise Value 1.43b)
FCF Margin = 12.20% (FCF TTM 134.9m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = 5.25% (Net Income TTM 58.1m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 56.86% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 477.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 63.57% (prev 66.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.89 (Enterprise Value 1.43b / Total Assets 1.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 8.14% (Interest Expense 46.9m / Debt 575.8m)
Taxrate = 28.35% (614.0k / 2.17m)
NOPAT = 95.5m (EBIT 133.3m * (1 - 28.35%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 284.8m / Total Current Liabilities 376.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.94 (Debt 575.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 610.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.00 (Net Debt 463.9m / EBITDA 231.5m)
Debt / FCF = 3.44 (Net Debt 463.9m / FCF TTM 134.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 446.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.62% (Net Income 58.1m / Total Assets 1.60b)
RoE = 13.03% (Net Income TTM 58.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 446.1m)
RoCE = 19.82% (EBIT 133.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 446.1m + L.T.Debt 226.6m))
RoIC = 10.55% (NOPAT 95.5m / Invested Capital 904.9m)
WACC = 10.63% (E(1.03b)/V(1.61b) * Re(13.31%) + D(575.8m)/V(1.61b) * Rd(8.14%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 13.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.15%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.38% ; FCFF base≈119.2m ; Y1≈78.2m ; Y5≈35.7m
Fair Price DCF = 0.36 (EV 482.9m - Net Debt 463.9m = Equity 19.0m / Shares 52.7m; r=10.63% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 15.89 | EPS CAGR: -9.07% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 65.93 | Revenue CAGR: 11.04% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.74 | Chg30d=-0.011 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.59 | Chg30d=-0.017 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+49.4% | Growth Revenue=+8.0%