(SPSC) SPS Commerce - Overview
Stock: Cloud Platform, Fulfillment, Analytics, Assortment, Community
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.61 |
| Alpha | -70.67 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.035 |
| Beta Downside | 0.541 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 63.78% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.27 |
Description: SPSC SPS Commerce January 10, 2026
SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ :SPSC) is a Minnesota-based provider of cloud-based supply-chain management software that serves retailers, grocers, manufacturers, distributors and logistics firms across the United States.
The company’s core platform connects trading partners to automate order-to-cash processes, while its Fulfillment suite handles data exchange, invoicing and revenue recovery end-to-end. Complementary offerings include an Analytics engine for sell-through data cleansing and reporting, an Assortment tool that normalizes item attributes across channels, and a Community solution that accelerates supplier onboarding and score-carding.
In FY 2023 SPS Commerce generated roughly **$1.0 billion** in revenue, up about **10 % YoY**, with subscription-based ARR now exceeding **$1.3 billion** and a **gross margin of ~71 %**. The firm reports a **net-revenue retention rate of ~115 %**, indicating that existing customers are expanding usage faster than they churn (historical churn ≈ 5 %). These metrics are being driven by macro trends such as the continued acceleration of e-commerce, heightened retailer demand for omnichannel fulfillment, and the broader SaaS market’s projected **12 % CAGR** through 2029, which together boost the appetite for integrated, cloud-native supply-chain solutions.
For a deeper quantitative view of SPS Commerce’s valuation and risk profile, you might explore its profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 85.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 21.32% < 20% (prev 32.41%; Δ -11.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 173.5m > Net Income 85.1m |
| Net Debt (-124.1m) to EBITDA (165.1m): -0.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (38.0m) vs 12m ago -0.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 68.45% > 18% (prev 0.64%; Δ 6780 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.51% > 50% (prev 60.98%; Δ 6.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -42.05 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 165.1m / Interest Expense TTM -2.61m) |
Altman Z'' 4.81
| A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 315.6m - Total Current Liabilities 160.0m) / Total Assets 1.16b |
| B: 0.35 (Retained Earnings 403.6m / Total Assets 1.16b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 109.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.08b) |
| D: 2.02 (Book Value of Equity 402.7m / Total Liabilities 199.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.81 = AA |
Beneish M -2.94
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 67.4m/55.6m, Revenue 729.8m/611.8m) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 68.45% / 64.31%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.61) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 729.8m / 611.8m) |
| TATA: -0.08 (NI 85.1m - CFO 173.5m) / TA 1.16b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.94 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of SPSC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.19%, over one month by -12.63%, over three months by -2.72% and over the past year by -56.63%.
Is SPSC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SPSC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 99.8 | 26.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 99.8 | 26.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 68.7 | -13% |
SPSC Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 67.1141
P/S = 4.2612
P/B = 3.2257
P/EG = 4.7094
Revenue TTM = 729.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 109.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 165.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 9.64m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.62m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.64m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -124.1m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.99b USD (3.11b + Debt 9.64m - CCE 133.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -42.05 (Ebit TTM 109.6m / Interest Expense TTM -2.61m)
EV/FCF = 20.12x (Enterprise Value 2.99b / FCF TTM 148.4m)
FCF Yield = 4.97% (FCF TTM 148.4m / Enterprise Value 2.99b)
FCF Margin = 20.33% (FCF TTM 148.4m / Revenue TTM 729.8m)
Net Margin = 11.66% (Net Income TTM 85.1m / Revenue TTM 729.8m)
Gross Margin = 68.45% ((Revenue TTM 729.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 230.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.49% (prev 68.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.58 (Enterprise Value 2.99b / Total Assets 1.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 13.23% (Interest Expense 1.28m / Debt 9.64m)
Taxrate = 21.21% (6.88m / 32.5m)
NOPAT = 86.4m (EBIT 109.6m * (1 - 21.21%))
Current Ratio = 1.97 (Total Current Assets 315.6m / Total Current Liabilities 160.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 9.64m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 958.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.75 (Net Debt -124.1m / EBITDA 165.1m)
Debt / FCF = -0.84 (Net Debt -124.1m / FCF TTM 148.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 921.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.87% (Net Income 85.1m / Total Assets 1.16b)
RoE = 9.23% (Net Income TTM 85.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 921.1m)
RoCE = 11.78% (EBIT 109.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 921.1m + L.T.Debt 9.64m))
RoIC = 9.38% (NOPAT 86.4m / Invested Capital 921.1m)
WACC = 9.73% (E(3.11b)/V(3.12b) * Re(9.73%) + D(9.64m)/V(3.12b) * Rd(13.23%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.73% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.47%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.64% ; FCFF base≈141.6m ; Y1≈172.6m ; Y5≈285.8m
Fair Price DCF = 98.13 (EV 3.58b - Net Debt -124.1m = Equity 3.70b / Shares 37.7m; r=9.73% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.37% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 19.40 | EPS CAGR: -43.19% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.82 | Revenue CAGR: 17.80% | SUE: -3.68 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-6 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+9.7% | Growth Revenue=+7.3%