(SUPN) Supernus Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: ADHD, Epilepsy, Parkinson, Sialorrhea, Dystonia
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.77% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.84 |
| Alpha | 21.83 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.425 |
| Beta Downside | 0.262 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.97% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.24 |
Description: SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals January 13, 2026
Supernus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SUPN) is a U.S.-focused biopharma that builds a niche portfolio of CNS-targeted therapies, commercializing products such as Qelbree (non-stimulant ADHD), GOCOVRI (levodopa/carbidopa for Parkinson’s dyskinesia), Oxtellar XR (extended-release oxcarbazepine for partial-onset seizures), and APOKYN (off-episode treatment for advanced Parkinson’s disease). The company also markets specialty products-including Trokendi XR (topiramate for epilepsy and migraine prophylaxis), XADAGO (levodopa/carbidopa for Parkinson’s off episodes), and MYOBLOC (botulinum toxin for cervical dystonia and chronic sialorrhea)-through wholesalers, specialty pharmacies, and distributors.
In addition to its commercial slate, Supernus is advancing a pipeline of CNS candidates: ONAPGO (FDA-approved for motor fluctuations in advanced Parkinson’s), SPN-817 (first-in-class selective acetylcholinesterase inhibitor in Phase 2 for epilepsy and rare seizure disorders), SPN-820 (small-molecule for treatment-resistant depression, Phase 2 under a Navitor Inc. development agreement), SPN-443 (Phase 1 stimulant for ADHD/CNS), and preclinical SPN-446. The pipeline reflects a strategic emphasis on differentiated mechanisms and underserved patient populations.
Key performance indicators as of the most recent quarter show FY 2024 revenue of roughly $210 million, driven primarily by GOCOVRI and Qelbree, with a cash runway extending beyond 12 months at current burn rates. The CNS therapeutic market is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of ~6 % globally, supported by an aging population and increasing diagnosis rates for Parkinson’s and epilepsy, which underpins Supernus’s growth outlook.
For deeper quantitative analysis, you may want to explore ValueRay’s detailed valuation models for SUPN.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -19.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -7.83 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.63% < 20% (prev 53.45%; Δ -14.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 71.9m > Net Income -19.1m |
| Net Debt (-119.9m) to EBITDA (59.9m): -2.00 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.6m) vs 12m ago 0.96% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.30% > 18% (prev 0.89%; Δ 8341 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 49.34% > 50% (prev 48.56%; Δ 0.79% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -17.04 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 59.9m / Interest Expense TTM -1.29m) |
Altman Z'' 3.79
| A: 0.19 (Total Current Assets 593.9m - Total Current Liabilities 330.6m) / Total Assets 1.42b |
| B: 0.37 (Retained Earnings 522.0m / Total Assets 1.42b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -22.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.38b) |
| D: 1.41 (Book Value of Equity 522.0m / Total Liabilities 370.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.79 = AA |
Beneish M -2.84
| DSRI: 1.13 (Receivables 171.3m/145.4m, Revenue 681.5m/652.0m) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 84.30% / 89.04%) |
| AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.57 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 681.5m / 652.0m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -19.1m - CFO 71.9m) / TA 1.42b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of SUPN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.25%, over one month by +4.85%, over three months by +9.28% and over the past year by +32.95%.
Is SUPN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the SUPN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 61.3 | 18.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 61.3 | 18.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 56.6 | 9.6% |
SUPN Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 4.0518
P/B = 2.68
P/EG = 1.47
Revenue TTM = 681.5m USD
EBIT TTM = -22.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 59.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 42.2m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.89m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 31.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -119.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.51b USD (2.76b + Debt 31.4m - CCE 281.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -17.04 (Ebit TTM -22.0m / Interest Expense TTM -1.29m)
EV/FCF = 35.50x (Enterprise Value 2.51b / FCF TTM 70.8m)
FCF Yield = 2.82% (FCF TTM 70.8m / Enterprise Value 2.51b)
FCF Margin = 10.38% (FCF TTM 70.8m / Revenue TTM 681.5m)
Net Margin = -2.80% (Net Income TTM -19.1m / Revenue TTM 681.5m)
Gross Margin = 84.30% ((Revenue TTM 681.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 107.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.84% (prev 89.83%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.77 (Enterprise Value 2.51b / Total Assets 1.42b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -4.11% (Interest Expense -1.29m / Debt 31.4m)
Taxrate = 24.53% (24.0m / 97.9m)
NOPAT = -16.6m (EBIT -22.0m * (1 - 24.53%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.80 (Total Current Assets 593.9m / Total Current Liabilities 330.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 31.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.05b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.00 (Net Debt -119.9m / EBITDA 59.9m)
Debt / FCF = -1.70 (Net Debt -119.9m / FCF TTM 70.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.05b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.38% (Net Income -19.1m / Total Assets 1.42b)
RoE = -1.83% (Net Income TTM -19.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.05b)
RoCE = -2.03% (EBIT -22.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.05b + L.T.Debt 42.2m))
RoIC = -1.59% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -16.6m / Invested Capital 1.05b)
WACC = 7.36% (E(2.76b)/V(2.79b) * Re(7.48%) + D(31.4m)/V(2.79b) * Rd(-4.11%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.48% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.35%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.33% ; FCFF base≈111.3m ; Y1≈118.6m ; Y5≈142.5m
Fair Price DCF = 51.53 (EV 2.83b - Net Debt -119.9m = Equity 2.95b / Shares 57.3m; r=7.36% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 7.31% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -17.73 | EPS CAGR: -10.46% | SUE: -1.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 26.45 | Revenue CAGR: 5.16% | SUE: 1.56 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-0.170 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.50 | Chg30d=-1.752 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-5.0% | Growth Revenue=+22.2%