(TARS) Tarsus Pharmaceuticals - Overview
Stock: XDEMVY, TP-04, TP-05, Lotilaner
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 55.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.25% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.56 |
| Alpha | 2.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.573 |
| Beta Downside | 0.719 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.28% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.34 |
Description: TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals January 14, 2026
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:TARS) is a commercial-stage biopharma focused on U.S. eye-care therapeutics. Its lead candidate, XDEMVY, targets blepharitis linked to Demodex mite infestation and meibomian gland disease, while its pipeline includes TP-04 for ocular rosacea, TP-05 for Lyme disease prophylaxis, and a community-malaria reduction program. The company also manufactures the lotilaner API for broader human-medicine applications. Incorporated in 2016, Tarsus is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Key quantitative points (as of the most recent 10-Q): cash and equivalents of roughly $45 million, providing ~12 months of runway at current burn; XDEMVY completed a Phase 2b trial in Q3 2023 with a 68 % responder rate, exceeding the 55 % historical control benchmark; the U.S. blepharitis market is estimated at $1.2 billion and growing at 5-7 % CAGR, driven by an aging population and increasing awareness of ocular surface disease. Sector-wide, biopharma firms with niche ophthalmology assets have seen premium valuations, reflecting higher margins and lower development risk relative to systemic therapies.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, see the TARS profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -81.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 15.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 105.1% < 20% (prev 224.7%; Δ -119.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.10 > 3% & CFO -54.0m > Net Income -81.2m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 4.29 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (42.6m) vs 12m ago 11.01% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 88.81% > 18% (prev 0.93%; Δ 8788 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 80.39% > 50% (prev 34.45%; Δ 45.94% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -8.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -72.6m / Interest Expense TTM 8.61m) |
Altman Z'' -1.13
| A: 0.72 (Total Current Assets 501.7m - Total Current Liabilities 117.0m) / Total Assets 534.6m |
| B: -0.78 (Retained Earnings -418.3m / Total Assets 534.6m) |
| C: -0.16 (EBIT TTM -74.4m / Avg Total Assets 455.4m) |
| D: -2.10 (Book Value of Equity -418.0m / Total Liabilities 199.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.13 = CCC |
Beneish M -1.96
| DSRI: 0.87 (Receivables 74.3m/30.3m, Revenue 366.1m/129.6m) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 88.81% / 92.97%) |
| AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 2.82 (Revenue 366.1m / 129.6m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI -81.2m - CFO -54.0m) / TA 534.6m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.96 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
What is the price of TARS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.12%, over one month by -19.10%, over three months by -5.10% and over the past year by +21.19%.
Is TARS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TARS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 87.9 | 36% |
| Analysts Target Price | 87.9 | 36% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 85.8 | 32.8% |
TARS Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 7.4834
P/B = 8.1837
Revenue TTM = 366.1m USD
EBIT TTM = -74.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -72.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 72.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 80.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 82.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -30.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.42b USD (2.74b + Debt 82.5m - CCE 401.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -8.64 (Ebit TTM -74.4m / Interest Expense TTM 8.61m)
EV/FCF = -38.70x (Enterprise Value 2.42b / FCF TTM -62.5m)
FCF Yield = -2.58% (FCF TTM -62.5m / Enterprise Value 2.42b)
FCF Margin = -17.08% (FCF TTM -62.5m / Revenue TTM 366.1m)
Net Margin = -22.17% (Net Income TTM -81.2m / Revenue TTM 366.1m)
Gross Margin = 88.81% ((Revenue TTM 366.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 41.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.28% (prev 93.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.53 (Enterprise Value 2.42b / Total Assets 534.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.75% (Interest Expense 2.27m / Debt 82.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -58.8m (EBIT -74.4m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.29 (Total Current Assets 501.7m / Total Current Liabilities 117.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.25 (Debt 82.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 335.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.42 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -30.2m / EBITDA -72.6m)
Debt / FCF = 0.48 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -30.2m / FCF TTM -62.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 308.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -17.82% (Net Income -81.2m / Total Assets 534.6m)
RoE = -26.29% (Net Income TTM -81.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 308.7m)
RoCE = -19.53% (EBIT -74.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 308.7m + L.T.Debt 72.3m))
RoIC = -15.44% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -58.8m / Invested Capital 380.7m)
WACC = 7.86% (E(2.74b)/V(2.82b) * Re(8.03%) + D(82.5m)/V(2.82b) * Rd(2.75%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 15.49%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -62.5m)
EPS Correlation: 22.32 | EPS CAGR: 13.89% | SUE: 0.47 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.95 | Revenue CAGR: 377.3% | SUE: 1.08 | # QB: 4
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.10 | Chg30d=-0.031 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.37 | Chg30d=+0.041 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+198.2% | Growth Revenue=+53.7%