(TCOM) Trip.com - Overview
Stock: Flight Tickets, Hotel Booking, Package Tours, Travel Insurance, Corporate Travel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.45% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 0.85% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | % |
| Payout Consistency | 19.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.21 |
| Alpha | -26.49 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.790 |
| Beta Downside | 0.598 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.08% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.58 |
Description: TCOM Trip.com January 29, 2026
Trip.com Group Ltd. (NASDAQ:TCOM) operates a multi-brand, end-to-end travel platform that aggregates accommodation, transportation (air, rail, bus, ferry, car-rental, cruise), packaged tours, travel insurance, and ancillary services such as airport lounge access and online advertising. Its portfolio includes the Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, Travix, Travelfusion and Skyscanner brands, serving both consumer and corporate customers in China and globally.
According to the company’s FY 2025 filing (released March 2026), Trip.com reported total revenue of **$4.9 billion**, up **12 % YoY**, driven by a **15 % increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) to $28 billion**. Active user accounts reached **120 million**, with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of $41, and the corporate travel segment contributed **$620 million** in revenue, reflecting a **20 % YoY rise** in enterprise contracts. The firm posted a net profit margin of **6 %**, though analysts note that profitability is sensitive to foreign-exchange swings and marketing spend cycles.
Key macro-drivers for Trip.com include the rebound of Chinese outbound travel, which the Ministry of Culture and Tourism projects to grow **≈8 % annually** through 2027, and the continued expansion of domestic tourism supported by rising per-capita disposable income (≈+5 % YoY). At the sector level, the global online travel agency (OTA) market is expected to compound at **≈10 % CAGR** to 2030, but competitive pressure from Booking Holdings and Expedia remains high, and regulatory scrutiny of data privacy in China adds an execution risk.
Given the mix of strong GMV growth, expanding corporate services, and macro-tailwinds, the stock warrants a deeper quantitative assessment-**ValueRay’s proprietary valuation framework can help you model scenario-based outcomes**.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 31.17b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.21 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 68.50% < 20% (prev 67.15%; Δ 1.36% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 19.62b > Net Income 31.17b |
| Net Debt (-27.29b) to EBITDA (33.96b): -0.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.48 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (695.0m) vs 12m ago 1.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 80.72% > 18% (prev 0.82%; Δ 7990 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 23.21% > 50% (prev 20.82%; Δ 2.39% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 31.34 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 33.96b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b) |
Altman Z'' 4.16
| A: 0.15 (Total Current Assets 125.41b - Total Current Liabilities 84.48b) / Total Assets 270.58b |
| B: 0.17 (Retained Earnings 45.25b / Total Assets 270.58b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 33.13b / Avg Total Assets 257.44b) |
| D: 1.67 (Book Value of Equity 168.23b / Total Liabilities 100.60b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.16 = AA |
Beneish M -2.84
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 16.34b/13.84b, Revenue 59.76b/50.88b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 80.72% / 81.60%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.51) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 59.76b / 50.88b) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI 31.17b - CFO 19.62b) / TA 270.58b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TCOM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.21%, over one month by -21.94%, over three months by -15.12% and over the past year by -12.90%.
Is TCOM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 24
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TCOM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 86.6 | 45.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 86.6 | 45.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 65.4 | 10.1% |
TCOM Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.6766
P/E Forward = 15.456
P/S = 0.6713
P/B = 1.6759
P/EG = 2.0817
Revenue TTM = 59.76b CNY
EBIT TTM = 33.13b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 33.96b CNY
Long Term Debt = 11.03b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.34b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 31.93b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -27.29b CNY (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 229.93b CNY (278.45b + Debt 31.93b - CCE 80.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 31.34 (Ebit TTM 33.13b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b)
EV/FCF = 12.08x (Enterprise Value 229.93b / FCF TTM 19.03b)
FCF Yield = 8.28% (FCF TTM 19.03b / Enterprise Value 229.93b)
FCF Margin = 31.85% (FCF TTM 19.03b / Revenue TTM 59.76b)
Net Margin = 52.16% (Net Income TTM 31.17b / Revenue TTM 59.76b)
Gross Margin = 80.72% ((Revenue TTM 59.76b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.52b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.68% (prev 81.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.85 (Enterprise Value 229.93b / Total Assets 270.58b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.57% (Interest Expense 183.0m / Debt 31.93b)
Taxrate = 14.37% (3.34b / 23.26b)
NOPAT = 28.36b (EBIT 33.13b * (1 - 14.37%))
Current Ratio = 1.48 (Total Current Assets 125.41b / Total Current Liabilities 84.48b)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 31.93b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 168.23b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.80 (Net Debt -27.29b / EBITDA 33.96b)
Debt / FCF = -1.43 (Net Debt -27.29b / FCF TTM 19.03b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 151.30b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.11% (Net Income 31.17b / Total Assets 270.58b)
RoE = 20.60% (Net Income TTM 31.17b / Total Stockholder Equity 151.30b)
RoCE = 20.41% (EBIT 33.13b / Capital Employed (Equity 151.30b + L.T.Debt 11.03b))
RoIC = 14.98% (NOPAT 28.36b / Invested Capital 189.38b)
WACC = 7.97% (E(278.45b)/V(310.38b) * Re(8.83%) + D(31.93b)/V(310.38b) * Rd(0.57%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 8.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 1.98%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.35% ; FCFF base≈12.23b ; Y1≈15.09b ; Y5≈25.70b
Fair Price DCF = 709.9 (EV 436.69b - Net Debt -27.29b = Equity 463.98b / Shares 653.6m; r=7.97% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 54.28 | EPS CAGR: 2.15% | SUE: -0.74 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.19 | Revenue CAGR: 43.93% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=6.80 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=29.76 | Chg30d=+0.055 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-34.8% | Growth Revenue=+13.5%