(TMC) TMC the metals - Overview
Stock: Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Manganese
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 149% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.58 |
| Alpha | 240.68 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.714 |
| Beta Downside | 0.923 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 74.56% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.16 |
Description: TMC TMC the metals January 11, 2026
TMC The Metals Company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) is a Vancouver-based deep-sea mining firm that holds exploration and commercial rights to two polymetallic-nodule contract areas in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean. Its target commodities are nickel, cobalt, copper and manganese-metals that underpin electric-vehicle batteries, grid-scale energy storage, and high-strength steel alloys.
As of the latest filing (Q4 2023), TMC reported a market capitalization of roughly $150 million and cash-and-cash-equivalents of about $30 million, sufficient to fund its current environmental impact assessments but insufficient for full-scale commercial extraction, which analysts estimate will require $200-$300 million in additional capital over the next 5-7 years.
Key economic drivers include the projected 12%-15% CAGR in global demand for nickel and cobalt driven by EV battery production, and the tightening supply outlook for deep-sea sourced manganese, which could command a premium if regulatory approvals are secured. However, the sector faces high uncertainty from evolving international seabed mining treaties, potential environmental litigation, and the long lead-time (typically 8-10 years) from exploration to commercial output.
For a data-rich, risk-adjusted view of TMC’s valuation and exposure to these macro trends, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboard can help you identify the most material assumptions to test.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.0
| Net Income: -295.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.26 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 48.74 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -348.7% < 20% (prev -269.2%; Δ -79.56% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.26 > 3% & CFO -45.3m > Net Income -295.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 2.50 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (321.9m) vs 12m ago -0.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: -17.04% > 50% (prev 32.92%; Δ -49.96% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -105.8 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -291.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.76m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.40 (Total Current Assets 117.2m - Total Current Liabilities 46.8m) / Total Assets 175.6m |
| B: -5.19 (Retained Earnings -910.9m / Total Assets 175.6m) |
| C: -2.46 (EBIT TTM -291.6m / Avg Total Assets 118.5m) |
| D: -1.26 (Book Value of Equity -273.2m / Total Liabilities 216.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -32.15 = D |
What is the price of TMC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.23%, over one month by -5.14%, over three months by +12.35% and over the past year by +256.99%.
Is TMC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11.2 | 68.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11.2 | 68.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.9 | 3.2% |
TMC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
Revenue TTM = -20.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -291.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -291.3m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 11.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -115.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.44b USD (3.54b + Debt 11.8m - CCE 115.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -105.8 (Ebit TTM -291.6m / Interest Expense TTM 2.76m)
EV/FCF = -75.57x (Enterprise Value 3.44b / FCF TTM -45.5m)
FCF Yield = -1.32% (FCF TTM -45.5m / Enterprise Value 3.44b)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
FCF Margin = 225.3% (FCF TTM -45.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Net Margin = 1464 % (Net Income TTM -295.5m / Revenue TTM -20.2m)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -20.2m
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM -20.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 255.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 19.57 (Enterprise Value 3.44b / Total Assets 175.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.78% (Interest Expense 681.0k / Debt 11.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -230.3m (EBIT -291.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.50 (Total Current Assets 117.2m / Total Current Liabilities 46.8m)
Debt / Equity = -0.29 (negative equity) (Debt 11.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -40.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -115.6m / EBITDA -291.3m)
Debt / FCF = 2.54 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -115.6m / FCF TTM -45.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.84m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -249.4% (out of range, set to none)
RoE = -16.1k% (out of range, set to none) (Net Income TTM -295.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.84m)
RoCE = -226.4% (out of range, set to none) (EBIT -291.6m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 175.6m - Current Liab 46.8m))
RoIC = -2917 % (out of range, set to none) (NOPAT -230.3m / Invested Capital 7.90m)
WACC = 12.20% (E(3.54b)/V(3.55b) * Re(12.23%) + D(11.8m)/V(3.55b) * Rd(5.78%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 2.47%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -45.5m)
EPS Correlation: -20.48 | EPS CAGR: 5.89% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -74.20 | Revenue CAGR: -22.32% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.05 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.23 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+71.1% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%