(TMDX) TransMedics - Overview
Stock: Organ Care, Portable Perfusion, Lung Heart Liver, Logistics
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 66.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.28 |
| Alpha | 63.67 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.156 |
| Beta Downside | 0.865 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.79% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.42 |
Description: TMDX TransMedics January 12, 2026
TransMedics Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMDX) is a commercial-stage medical-technology firm that develops and sells the Organ Care System (OCS), a portable platform that perfuses, monitors, and optimizes donor organs in near-physiologic conditions before transplantation.
The OCS portfolio includes three FDA-cleared devices: OCS LUNG for standard-criteria donor lungs, OCS HEART for donation-after-brain-death (DBD) hearts that are marginal for cold storage and for ex-vivo reanimation of donation-after-circulatory-death (DCD) hearts, and OCS LIVER for both DBD and DCD livers. Each system is bundled with a turnkey retrieval program and logistics services (aviation, ground transport, and coordination), creating a recurring-revenue “organ-as-a-service” model.
Key financial metrics (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly **$115 million**, a **~30 % year-over-year increase** driven by higher OCS LUNG and OCS HEART utilization, and a cash runway of **~$300 million** after the 2022 $200 million equity raise. The company’s gross margin has risen to **≈55 %**, reflecting scaling of consumables and service contracts.
Sector drivers that underpin TMDX’s growth outlook include the **U.S. organ-shortage gap** (≈115,000 patients awaiting transplants) and the **aging demographic**, which together push demand for technologies that extend preservation times and expand the donor pool. Reimbursement trends are favorable: Medicare coverage for OCS LUNG began in 2020, and CMS added OCS HEART in 2022, reducing payer uncertainty and enabling broader adoption.
Competitive pressures remain modest; the perfusion market is still fragmented, with the nearest rivals (e.g., XVIVO, OrganOx) holding < 10 % of U.S. lung-preservation volume, giving TMDX a **first-mover advantage** in a niche with high entry barriers.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation of TMDX, you might find the free analysis on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 91.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 28.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 94.16% < 20% (prev 107.8%; Δ -13.65% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.19 > 3% & CFO 178.0m > Net Income 91.8m |
| Net Debt (53.2m) to EBITDA (132.3m): 0.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.69 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.7m) vs 12m ago 14.19% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 60.28% > 18% (prev 0.59%; Δ 5969 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.41% > 50% (prev 51.06%; Δ 14.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.63 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 132.3m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m) |
Altman Z'' 3.84
| A: 0.56 (Total Current Assets 613.0m - Total Current Liabilities 79.7m) / Total Assets 946.0m |
| B: -0.41 (Retained Earnings -383.3m / Total Assets 946.0m) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 106.9m / Avg Total Assets 865.8m) |
| D: 0.60 (Book Value of Equity 355.2m / Total Liabilities 590.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.84 = AA |
Beneish M -3.25
| DSRI: 0.63 (Receivables 80.7m/90.1m, Revenue 566.4m/401.1m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 60.28% / 59.29%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.41 (Revenue 566.4m / 401.1m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 91.8m - CFO 178.0m) / TA 946.0m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.25 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of TMDX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.81%, over one month by +1.80%, over three months by +8.07% and over the past year by +83.76%.
Is TMDX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TMDX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 144.7 | 7.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 144.7 | 7.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 177.1 | 31.2% |
TMDX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 57.8035
P/S = 8.0842
P/B = 13.3705
Revenue TTM = 566.4m USD
EBIT TTM = 106.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 132.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 506.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 8.24m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 519.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 53.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.63b USD (4.58b + Debt 519.3m - CCE 466.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.63 (Ebit TTM 106.9m / Interest Expense TTM 14.0m)
EV/FCF = 38.39x (Enterprise Value 4.63b / FCF TTM 120.6m)
FCF Yield = 2.60% (FCF TTM 120.6m / Enterprise Value 4.63b)
FCF Margin = 21.30% (FCF TTM 120.6m / Revenue TTM 566.4m)
Net Margin = 16.20% (Net Income TTM 91.8m / Revenue TTM 566.4m)
Gross Margin = 60.28% ((Revenue TTM 566.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 224.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.80% (prev 61.38%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.90 (Enterprise Value 4.63b / Total Assets 946.0m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.67% (Interest Expense 3.49m / Debt 519.3m)
Taxrate = 0.88% (316.0k / 35.8m)
NOPAT = 105.9m (EBIT 106.9m * (1 - 0.88%))
Current Ratio = 7.69 (Total Current Assets 613.0m / Total Current Liabilities 79.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.46 (Debt 519.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 355.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.40 (Net Debt 53.2m / EBITDA 132.3m)
Debt / FCF = 0.44 (Net Debt 53.2m / FCF TTM 120.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 292.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.60% (Net Income 91.8m / Total Assets 946.0m)
RoE = 31.42% (Net Income TTM 91.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 292.1m)
RoCE = 13.38% (EBIT 106.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 292.1m + L.T.Debt 506.7m))
RoIC = 13.20% (NOPAT 105.9m / Invested Capital 802.5m)
WACC = 9.21% (E(4.58b)/V(5.10b) * Re(10.18%) + D(519.3m)/V(5.10b) * Rd(0.67%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 10.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.19%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.18% ; FCFF base≈120.6m ; Y1≈116.5m ; Y5≈115.0m
Fair Price DCF = 46.70 (EV 1.65b - Net Debt 53.2m = Equity 1.60b / Shares 34.2m; r=9.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -4.67% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 74.24 | EPS CAGR: 18.40% | SUE: -1.64 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.27 | Revenue CAGR: 105.4% | SUE: -0.14 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.70 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.91 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+12.9% | Growth Revenue=+20.7%