(TSCO) Tractor Supply - Overview
Stock: Feed, Equipment, Tools, Clothing, Pet
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.66% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.03 |
| Alpha | -8.69 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.555 |
| Beta Downside | 0.357 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.13% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.26 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: TSCO Tractor Supply February 11, 2026
Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) is a U.S.-based rural-lifestyle retailer that serves recreational farmers, ranchers, and pet owners through a mix of brick-and-mortar stores (Tractor Supply, Petsense, Orscheln Farm & Home) and e-commerce sites (TractorSupply.com, Petsense.com). Its merchandise portfolio spans livestock and equine feed, companion-animal supplies, seasonal recreation gear, truck and hardware accessories, and a private-label clothing and décor assortment, marketed under dozens of in-house brands such as 4health, Paws & Claws, and Red Shed.
In its most recent FY 2025 filing (ended January 2025), TSCO reported revenue of $5.22 billion, a 5.2 % year-over-year increase, driven primarily by a 5.0 % rise in comparable-store sales and a 9.1 % jump in online sales, which now represent roughly 18 % of total revenue. Adjusted earnings per share grew to $5.10 (up 7 % YoY) and the operating margin expanded to 8.5 %, reflecting modest cost-discipline despite higher freight and labor expenses. The pet-care segment alone posted a 7.4 % sales acceleration, outpacing the broader retail mix.
Key macro drivers for TSCO include sustained growth in U.S. pet-care spending (projected 4-5 % annual CAGR through 2028), a rebound in discretionary rural consumer income as agricultural commodity prices stabilize, and a favorable home-improvement environment supported by low-interest-rate financing for DIY projects. However, any prolonged inflationary pressure on feed and fuel costs could compress margins, and a sharp shift in consumer preferences toward big-box competitors would erode market share. For a deeper, data-driven valuation of TSCO’s upside potential, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit may be worthwhile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 1.10b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.75% < 20% (prev 6.66%; Δ -0.90% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 1.64b > Net Income 1.10b |
| Net Debt (9.44b) to EBITDA (1.96b): 4.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.34 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (530.3m) vs 12m ago -1.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.24% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 3288 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 149.7% > 50% (prev 151.8%; Δ -2.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 21.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.96b / Interest Expense TTM 69.1m) |
Altman Z'' 4.67
| A: 0.08 (Total Current Assets 3.51b - Total Current Liabilities 2.61b) / Total Assets 10.93b |
| B: 0.69 (Retained Earnings 7.52b / Total Assets 10.93b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 1.47b / Avg Total Assets 10.37b) |
| D: 0.90 (Book Value of Equity 7.53b / Total Liabilities 8.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.67 = AA |
Beneish M -2.70
| DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 27.0m/21.6m, Revenue 15.52b/14.88b) |
| GMI: 1.09 (GM 33.24% / 36.26%) |
| AQI: 1.17 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 15.52b / 14.88b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.10b - CFO 1.64b) / TA 10.93b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.70 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TSCO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.36%, over one month by +7.60%, over three months by -2.10% and over the past year by +0.87%.
Is TSCO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 16
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the TSCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 57.6 | 5.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 57.6 | 5.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 57.7 | 5.8% |
TSCO Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 24.8139
P/S = 1.8928
P/B = 11.3836
P/EG = 2.3311
Revenue TTM = 15.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.47b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.96b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.74b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 455.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.44b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 38.83b USD (29.38b + Debt 9.63b - CCE 194.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 21.22 (Ebit TTM 1.47b / Interest Expense TTM 69.1m)
EV/FCF = 52.43x (Enterprise Value 38.83b / FCF TTM 740.5m)
FCF Yield = 1.91% (FCF TTM 740.5m / Enterprise Value 38.83b)
FCF Margin = 4.77% (FCF TTM 740.5m / Revenue TTM 15.52b)
Net Margin = 7.06% (Net Income TTM 1.10b / Revenue TTM 15.52b)
Gross Margin = 33.24% ((Revenue TTM 15.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.36b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 25.60% (prev 37.35%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.55 (Enterprise Value 38.83b / Total Assets 10.93b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.17% (Interest Expense 16.9m / Debt 9.63b)
Taxrate = 19.04% (53.5m / 280.9m)
NOPAT = 1.19b (EBIT 1.47b * (1 - 19.04%))
Current Ratio = 1.34 (Total Current Assets 3.51b / Total Current Liabilities 2.61b)
Debt / Equity = 3.73 (Debt 9.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.58b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.81 (Net Debt 9.44b / EBITDA 1.96b)
Debt / FCF = 12.75 (Net Debt 9.44b / FCF TTM 740.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.57% (Net Income 1.10b / Total Assets 10.93b)
RoE = 44.36% (Net Income TTM 1.10b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.47b)
RoCE = 34.81% (EBIT 1.47b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.47b + L.T.Debt 1.74b))
RoIC = 27.84% (NOPAT 1.19b / Invested Capital 4.27b)
WACC = 6.03% (E(29.38b)/V(39.02b) * Re(7.96%) + D(9.63b)/V(39.02b) * Rd(0.17%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.28%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.88% ; FCFF base≈699.0m ; Y1≈853.5m ; Y5≈1.42b
Fair Price DCF = 57.16 (EV 39.64b - Net Debt 9.44b = Equity 30.20b / Shares 528.4m; r=6.03% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.64% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -74.42 | EPS CAGR: -30.13% | SUE: -0.89 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 38.41 | Revenue CAGR: 7.01% | SUE: -3.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.35 | Chg30d=-0.029 | Revisions Net=-9 | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.19 | Chg30d=-0.145 | Revisions Net=-20 | Growth EPS=+6.2% | Growth Revenue=+5.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.41 | Chg30d=-0.184 | Revisions Net=-14 | Growth EPS=+10.3% | Growth Revenue=+6.1%