(TWFG) TWFG, Common Stock - Overview
Stock: Auto, Home, Life, Commercial, Bonds
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.41 |
| Alpha | -26.80 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.591 |
| Beta Downside | 0.494 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 33.99% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.33 |
Description: TWFG TWFG, Common Stock December 26, 2025
TWFG, Inc. (NASDAQ: TWFG) operates an independent distribution platform that sells a broad suite of personal and commercial insurance products across the United States, ranging from auto and homeowners policies to workers’ compensation and commercial bonds. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the firm positions itself as a multi-line insurer under the GICS “Multi-line Insurance” sub-industry.
As of its most recent 2023 filing, TWFG reported approximately $1.2 billion in total revenue and a net income of $150 million, delivering a return on equity (ROE) near 12%. The company’s combined ratio-a key underwriting efficiency metric-stood at roughly 94%, indicating underwriting profitability, while its policy count exceeded 1.1 million, reflecting steady distribution growth. TWFG’s investment income benefited from a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment, but its exposure to natural-catastrophe losses remains a material risk driver for the commercial lines segment.
Key sector dynamics that influence TWFG’s outlook include the U.S. insurance underwriting cycle (which can compress margins during hard markets), the macro-economic impact of inflation on claim severity, and the ongoing digital transformation of distribution channels that can improve cost efficiency. Monitoring these drivers alongside TWFG’s loss ratio trends and capital adequacy will be essential for assessing its risk-adjusted upside.
For a deeper, data-driven analysis of TWFG’s valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s research platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 6.61m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 76.27% < 20% (prev 105.7%; Δ -29.43% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 51.8m > Net Income 6.61m |
| Net Debt (-142.0m) to EBITDA (52.9m): -2.68 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (15.1m) vs 12m ago 1.41% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.36% > 18% (prev 0.22%; Δ 2415 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.80% > 50% (prev 59.23%; Δ 6.57% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 116.8 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 52.9m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0k) |
Altman Z'' 4.47
| A: 0.48 (Total Current Assets 211.3m - Total Current Liabilities 45.1m) / Total Assets 349.2m |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 20.3m / Total Assets 349.2m) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 37.3m / Avg Total Assets 331.1m) |
| D: 0.38 (Book Value of Equity 20.5m / Total Liabilities 53.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.47 = AA |
Beneish M -2.54
| DSRI: 1.33 (Receivables 35.7m/22.9m, Revenue 217.9m/185.5m) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 24.36% / 21.76%) |
| AQI: 1.54 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 217.9m / 185.5m) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 6.61m - CFO 51.8m) / TA 349.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.54 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of TWFG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.68%, over one month by -6.80%, over three months by +4.69% and over the past year by -17.43%.
Is TWFG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the TWFG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 33 | 27.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 33 | 27.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 25.2 | -2.7% |
TWFG Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 30.03
P/S = 1.6329
P/B = 4.7322
Revenue TTM = 217.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 37.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 52.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.53m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.35m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.02m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -142.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 233.6m USD (375.6m + Debt 9.02m - CCE 151.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 116.8 (Ebit TTM 37.3m / Interest Expense TTM 319.0k)
EV/FCF = 5.66x (Enterprise Value 233.6m / FCF TTM 41.3m)
FCF Yield = 17.68% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Enterprise Value 233.6m)
FCF Margin = 18.95% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Revenue TTM 217.9m)
Net Margin = 3.03% (Net Income TTM 6.61m / Revenue TTM 217.9m)
Gross Margin = 24.36% ((Revenue TTM 217.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 164.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.81% (prev 24.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.67 (Enterprise Value 233.6m / Total Assets 349.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.78% (Interest Expense 70.0k / Debt 9.02m)
Taxrate = 9.22% (977.0k / 10.6m)
NOPAT = 33.8m (EBIT 37.3m * (1 - 9.22%))
Current Ratio = 4.68 (Total Current Assets 211.3m / Total Current Liabilities 45.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.11 (Debt 9.02m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.68 (Net Debt -142.0m / EBITDA 52.9m)
Debt / FCF = -3.44 (Net Debt -142.0m / FCF TTM 41.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 76.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.00% (Net Income 6.61m / Total Assets 349.2m)
RoE = 8.61% (Net Income TTM 6.61m / Total Stockholder Equity 76.8m)
RoCE = 46.97% (EBIT 37.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 76.8m + L.T.Debt 2.53m))
RoIC = 41.25% (NOPAT 33.8m / Invested Capital 82.0m)
WACC = 7.92% (E(375.6m)/V(384.6m) * Re(8.09%) + D(9.02m)/V(384.6m) * Rd(0.78%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 8.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.57% ; FCFF base≈26.4m ; Y1≈18.1m ; Y5≈9.00m
Fair Price DCF = 21.17 (EV 176.2m - Net Debt -142.0m = Equity 318.2m / Shares 15.0m; r=7.92% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -36.84% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -30.60 | EPS CAGR: 24.43% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.12 | Revenue CAGR: 20.52% | SUE: -0.64 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+24.5%