(UFCS) United Fire - Overview
Stock: Property, Casualty, Auto, Liability, Workers Compensation
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.11% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.32% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 1.63% |
| Payout Consistency | 92.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 20.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.29 |
| Alpha | 38.24 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.533 |
| Beta Downside | 0.633 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.28% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.24 |
Description: UFCS United Fire January 27, 2026
United Fire Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is a U.S.-based property and casualty insurer offering both commercial and personal lines, including fire, liability, automobile, workers’ compensation, fidelity, surety, and assumed reinsurance for homeowners. The company distributes its products through an independent agency network and has operated since 1946 from its headquarters in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
According to the most recent 2024 Q2 filing, UFCS reported net written premiums of $1.23 billion for 2023, a 4.2% year-over-year increase, and posted a combined ratio of 96.3%, reflecting a loss ratio of 55.1% and an expense ratio of 41.2%. The insurer’s investment income rose to $84 million, boosted by higher interest rates, while its book value per share stood at $12.45, up from $11.80 a year earlier.
Key sector drivers include the ongoing underwriting cycle, where elevated interest rates improve investment yields but also raise policyholder borrowing costs, and the heightened frequency of severe weather events that pressure loss ratios across the P&C industry. Additionally, the shift toward digital distribution channels is accelerating competition among independent agencies.
For a deeper quantitative look at UFCS’s valuation, you might explore the metrics available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 111.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.44 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -111.8% < 20% (prev -77.41%; Δ -34.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 306.3m > Net Income 111.3m |
| Net Debt (-87.6m) to EBITDA (160.2m): -0.55 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (26.4m) vs 12m ago 1.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 21.81% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 2165 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.08% > 50% (prev 34.13%; Δ 2.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 160.2m / Interest Expense TTM 10.6m) |
Altman Z'' -1.52
| A: -0.40 (Total Current Assets 233.7m - Total Current Liabilities 1.75b) / Total Assets 3.75b |
| B: 0.18 (Retained Earnings 688.0m / Total Assets 3.75b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 149.8m / Avg Total Assets 3.65b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 677.1m / Total Liabilities 2.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.52 = D |
Beneish M -3.26
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 756.7m/875.5m, Revenue 1.35b/1.21b) |
| GMI: 0.77 (GM 21.81% / 16.78%) |
| AQI: 1.23 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.73) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 1.35b / 1.21b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 111.3m - CFO 306.3m) / TA 3.75b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.26 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of UFCS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.09%, over one month by +3.55%, over three months by +5.88% and over the past year by +47.85%.
Is UFCS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the UFCS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 37.5 | 1.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 37.5 | 1.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 41.2 | 11.1% |
UFCS Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 0.6896
P/B = 1.0342
P/EG = 2.9
Revenue TTM = 1.35b USD
EBIT TTM = 149.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 160.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 146.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.17m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 146.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -87.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = -159.1m USD (933.6m + Debt 146.1m - CCE 1.24b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.18 (Ebit TTM 149.8m / Interest Expense TTM 10.6m)
EV/FCF = -0.53x (Enterprise Value -159.1m / FCF TTM 297.5m)
FCF Yield = -187.0% (FCF TTM 297.5m / Enterprise Value -159.1m)
FCF Margin = 21.98% (FCF TTM 297.5m / Revenue TTM 1.35b)
Net Margin = 8.22% (Net Income TTM 111.3m / Revenue TTM 1.35b)
Gross Margin = 21.81% ((Revenue TTM 1.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.82% (prev 20.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = -0.04 (set to none) (Enterprise Value -159.1m / Total Assets 3.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.13% (Interest Expense 3.12m / Debt 146.1m)
Taxrate = 19.49% (9.49m / 48.7m)
NOPAT = 120.6m (EBIT 149.8m * (1 - 19.49%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 233.7m / Total Current Liabilities 1.75b)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 146.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 898.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.55 (Net Debt -87.6m / EBITDA 160.2m)
Debt / FCF = -0.29 (Net Debt -87.6m / FCF TTM 297.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 835.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.05% (Net Income 111.3m / Total Assets 3.75b)
RoE = 13.31% (Net Income TTM 111.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 835.9m)
RoCE = 15.26% (EBIT 149.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 835.9m + L.T.Debt 146.1m))
RoIC = 12.45% (NOPAT 120.6m / Invested Capital 968.8m)
WACC = 7.05% (E(933.6m)/V(1.08b) * Re(7.88%) + D(146.1m)/V(1.08b) * Rd(2.13%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.80%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.13% ; FCFF base≈256.3m ; Y1≈288.5m ; Y5≈387.0m
Fair Price DCF = 325.7 (EV 8.22b - Net Debt -87.6m = Equity 8.31b / Shares 25.5m; r=7.05% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.60% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 34.33 | EPS CAGR: -10.01% | SUE: -3.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.10 | Revenue CAGR: 8.27% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.62 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=-7.9% | Growth Revenue=+3.4%