(VRDN) Viridian Therapeutics - Overview
Stock: Monoclonal Antibody, IGF-1R, Autoimmune, Fc Receptor
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 49.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.65% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.07 |
| Alpha | 37.51 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.902 |
| Beta Downside | 0.730 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 67.19% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
Description: VRDN Viridian Therapeutics January 15, 2026
Viridian Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VRDN) is a U.S. biotech focused on monoclonal-antibody therapies for rare, high-unmet-need conditions, chiefly thyroid eye disease (TED). Its lead assets are veligrotug (an IGF-1R antibody) and VRDN-003 (a half-life-extended IGF-1R antibody), both currently in Phase 3 trials for TED, and a pipeline of engineered anti-neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) inhibitors (VRDN-006, VRDN-008) targeting broader autoimmune indications.
Key market data (as of the most recent filing): market capitalization ≈ $190 million, cash and equivalents of $85 million, giving an estimated runway of ~12 months at current burn rates. The TED market is projected to exceed $1 billion globally, driven by rising prevalence of Graves’ disease and limited approved therapies, which creates a favorable pricing environment for a successful product.
Sector drivers that materially affect VRDN’s outlook include the biotech industry’s average Phase 3 success rate (~30 % for antibody programs) and the current U.S. regulatory climate, where the FDA’s accelerated approval pathways for rare-disease treatments could shorten time-to-market if efficacy endpoints are met.
Given the concentration of risk in a single indication, a disconfirming scenario would be a missed primary endpoint in the Phase 3 trials, which would likely force a pivot to the FcRn program and materially depress valuation.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of VRDN’s risk-adjusted upside, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 0.0
| Net Income: -302.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.57 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -30.97 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 736.3% < 20% (prev 240.4k%; Δ -239.7k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.56 > 3% & CFO -326.0m > Net Income -302.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 11.28 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (81.8m) vs 12m ago 23.13% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: error (current vs previous; cannot be calculated due to missing/invalid data or negative margin) |
| Asset Turnover: 10.49% > 50% (prev 0.04%; Δ 10.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -118.9 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -299.0m / Interest Expense TTM 2.52m) |
Altman Z'' -15.00
| A: 0.90 (Total Current Assets 571.9m - Total Current Liabilities 50.7m) / Total Assets 577.1m |
| B: -2.11 (Retained Earnings -1.22b / Total Assets 577.1m) |
| C: -0.44 (EBIT TTM -299.5m / Avg Total Assets 674.5m) |
| D: -16.41 (Book Value of Equity -1.22b / Total Liabilities 74.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -21.17 = D |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 21.33 (Receivables 70.0m/14.0k, Revenue 70.8m/302.0k) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 2.38 (AQ_t 0.00 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 234.4 (Revenue 70.8m / 302.0k) |
| TATA: 0.04 (NI -302.0m - CFO -326.0m) / TA 577.1m) |
| Beneish M-Score: 181.9 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of VRDN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.36%, over one month by -4.79%, over three months by +6.36% and over the past year by +58.02%.
Is VRDN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VRDN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 42.1 | 43.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 42.1 | 43.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 32.1 | 9.8% |
VRDN Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/B = 9.2286
Revenue TTM = 70.8m USD
EBIT TTM = -299.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = -299.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 20.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 730.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -145.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.32b USD (2.78b + Debt 23.8m - CCE 490.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -118.9 (Ebit TTM -299.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.52m)
EV/FCF = -7.10x (Enterprise Value 2.32b / FCF TTM -326.3m)
FCF Yield = -14.08% (FCF TTM -326.3m / Enterprise Value 2.32b)
FCF Margin = -461.0% (FCF TTM -326.3m / Revenue TTM 70.8m)
Net Margin = -426.6% (Net Income TTM -302.0m / Revenue TTM 70.8m)
Gross Margin = unknown ((Revenue TTM 70.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 123.0k) / Revenue TTM)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.01 (Enterprise Value 2.32b / Total Assets 577.1m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.35% (Interest Expense 560.0k / Debt 23.8m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -236.6m (EBIT -299.5m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 11.28 (Total Current Assets 571.9m / Total Current Liabilities 50.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 23.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 503.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.49 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -145.8m / EBITDA -299.0m)
Debt / FCF = 0.45 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -145.8m / FCF TTM -326.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 573.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -44.77% (Net Income -302.0m / Total Assets 577.1m)
RoE = -52.65% (Net Income TTM -302.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 573.6m)
RoCE = -50.37% (EBIT -299.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 573.6m + L.T.Debt 20.9m))
RoIC = -58.35% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -236.6m / Invested Capital 405.4m)
WACC = 9.18% (E(2.78b)/V(2.81b) * Re(9.24%) + D(23.8m)/V(2.81b) * Rd(2.35%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 28.30%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -326.3m)
EPS Correlation: 60.12 | EPS CAGR: 25.46% | SUE: 3.15 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 12.25 | Revenue CAGR: 369.4% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-1.06 | Chg30d=+0.014 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.62 | Chg30d=-0.073 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-2.2% | Growth Revenue=-6.1%