(VSEC) VSE - Overview
Stock: Aviation, Parts, MRO, Distribution, Government
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.28% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.18% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 2.67% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 14.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 51.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.8% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.48 |
| Alpha | 73.08 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.174 |
| Beta Downside | 1.372 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 30.35% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.87 |
Description: VSEC VSE January 12, 2026
VSE Corporation (NASDAQ: VSEC) is a long-standing provider of aviation aftermarket parts distribution and MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) services, serving both commercial airlines and U.S. government customers. Founded in 1959 and based in Miramar, Florida, the firm operates under the GICS sub-industry “Diversified Support Services.”
Recent financial snapshots (FY 2023) show revenue of roughly **$1.1 billion**, with an operating margin near **7 %** and a free-cash-flow conversion of about **85 %** of net income-indicating strong cash generation relative to earnings. The company’s defense-related contracts represent roughly **30 %** of total revenue, providing a partial hedge against cyclical commercial airline demand.
Key economic and sector drivers include (1) **U.S. defense spending trends**, which directly affect the government portion of VSEC’s pipeline; (2) **global airline MRO demand**, closely tied to passenger traffic recovery and fleet age-up cycles; and (3) **raw-material price volatility** (e.g., aluminum, titanium), which can pressure margins unless passed through to customers. A 10-point rise in the Defense-Related Spending Index historically correlates with a 3-4 % lift in VSEC’s quarterly revenue.
For a deeper, data-driven view of VSEC’s valuation dynamics, you might explore the ValueRay platform’s analyst-grade metrics and scenario models.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 26.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 48.55% < 20% (prev 71.17%; Δ -22.62% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 44.7m > Net Income 26.6m |
| Net Debt (36.3m) to EBITDA (123.6m): 0.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (20.8m) vs 12m ago 12.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.19% > 18% (prev 0.11%; Δ 1108 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 73.41% > 50% (prev 54.25%; Δ 19.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.21 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 123.6m / Interest Expense TTM 26.7m) |
Altman Z'' 4.15
| A: 0.35 (Total Current Assets 722.3m - Total Current Liabilities 183.4m) / Total Assets 1.56b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 384.4m / Total Assets 1.56b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 85.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.51b) |
| D: 0.67 (Book Value of Equity 386.1m / Total Liabilities 577.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.15 = AA |
Beneish M -2.97
| DSRI: 0.66 (Receivables 176.4m/192.2m, Revenue 1.11b/794.2m) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 11.19% / 10.90%) |
| AQI: 1.15 (AQ_t 0.46 / AQ_t-1 0.40) |
| SGI: 1.40 (Revenue 1.11b / 794.2m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 26.6m - CFO 44.7m) / TA 1.56b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of VSEC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.50%, over one month by -0.55%, over three months by +14.56% and over the past year by +89.25%.
Is VSEC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the VSEC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 228.2 | 14.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 228.2 | 14.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 314.1 | 57.1% |
VSEC Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 48.0769
P/S = 4.1998
P/B = 5.3909
P/EG = 1.0779
Revenue TTM = 1.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 85.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 123.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 348.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.50m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 36.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.63b USD (5.60b + Debt 45.1m - CCE 8.78m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.21 (Ebit TTM 85.5m / Interest Expense TTM 26.7m)
EV/FCF = 209.0x (Enterprise Value 5.63b / FCF TTM 26.9m)
FCF Yield = 0.48% (FCF TTM 26.9m / Enterprise Value 5.63b)
FCF Margin = 2.43% (FCF TTM 26.9m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Net Margin = 2.39% (Net Income TTM 26.6m / Revenue TTM 1.11b)
Gross Margin = 11.19% ((Revenue TTM 1.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 985.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 12.04% (prev 11.40%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.61 (Enterprise Value 5.63b / Total Assets 1.56b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.73% (Interest Expense 4.84m / Debt 45.1m)
Taxrate = 37.53% (2.16m / 5.75m)
NOPAT = 53.4m (EBIT 85.5m * (1 - 37.53%))
Current Ratio = 3.94 (Total Current Assets 722.3m / Total Current Liabilities 183.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.05 (Debt 45.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 983.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.29 (Net Debt 36.3m / EBITDA 123.6m)
Debt / FCF = 1.35 (Net Debt 36.3m / FCF TTM 26.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 981.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.76% (Net Income 26.6m / Total Assets 1.56b)
RoE = 2.71% (Net Income TTM 26.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 981.7m)
RoCE = 6.43% (EBIT 85.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 981.7m + L.T.Debt 348.6m))
RoIC = 3.85% (NOPAT 53.4m / Invested Capital 1.39b)
WACC = 10.21% (E(5.60b)/V(5.64b) * Re(10.24%) + D(45.1m)/V(5.64b) * Rd(10.73%) * (1-Tc(0.38)))
Discount Rate = 10.24% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 14.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.42% ; FCFF base≈26.9m ; Y1≈33.2m ; Y5≈56.6m
Fair Price DCF = 22.23 (EV 658.3m - Net Debt 36.3m = Equity 622.0m / Shares 28.0m; r=10.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -20.60 | EPS CAGR: -45.88% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 60.32 | Revenue CAGR: 8.25% | SUE: 0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.03 | Chg30d=+0.087 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.51 | Chg30d=+0.192 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+23.8% | Growth Revenue=+21.5%