(AA) Alcoa - Overview
Stock: Bauxite, Alumina, Aluminum, Energy
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.27% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.92% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 41.42% |
| Payout Consistency | 80.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 8.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 56.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.39% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.13 |
| Alpha | 42.33 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.721 |
| Beta Downside | 1.563 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 58.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.14 |
Description: AA Alcoa January 06, 2026
Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA) is a vertically integrated producer of bauxite, alumina, primary aluminum, and electricity, operating across North America, South America, Europe, and Oceania. The firm’s operations span mining of bauxite ore, refining it into alumina, smelting alumina into aluminum ingots, and selling both primary metal and value-added cast products to end-users in transportation, construction, packaging, and industrial sectors.
The company reports two primary segments: Alumina, which supplies refined alumina to external smelters and industrial chemical customers via long-term contracts; and Aluminum, which manufactures primary alloy and value-add ingots, as well as generates wholesale electricity for industrial consumers and traders. Alcoa’s diversified geographic footprint includes assets in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, and the United States.
Key recent metrics: 2023 net sales were approximately $15.5 billion, with aluminum production at 1.6 million metric tons and a segment operating cash flow margin of ~12%. Demand drivers include the global shift toward electric vehicles and renewable-energy infrastructure, which together account for roughly 30% of projected aluminum consumption growth through 2028. A material-price risk remains, as aluminum spot prices have fluctuated between $2,200 and $2,800 per metric ton over the past 12 months, influencing both revenue and cost-pass-through potential.
For a deeper dive into AA’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, check out ValueRay’s research platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 1.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 13.28% < 20% (prev 12.36%; Δ 0.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.19b > Net Income 1.15b |
| Net Debt (-1.60b) to EBITDA (1.86b): -0.86 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (263.3m) vs 12m ago 1.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.22% > 18% (prev 0.14%; Δ 1407 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 84.76% > 50% (prev 87.39%; Δ -2.63% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.85 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.86b / Interest Expense TTM 158.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.62
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 5.47b - Total Current Liabilities 3.77b) / Total Assets 16.21b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -258.0m / Total Assets 16.21b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 1.24b / Avg Total Assets 15.14b) |
| D: -0.54 (Book Value of Equity -5.44b / Total Liabilities 10.00b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.62 = B |
Beneish M -4.00
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 1.27b/1.24b, Revenue 12.83b/12.29b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 14.22% / 14.26%) |
| AQI: -3.08 (AQ_t -0.60 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 12.83b / 12.29b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 1.15b - CFO 1.19b) / TA 16.21b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -5.43 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of AA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.14%, over one month by -6.92%, over three months by +61.20% and over the past year by +66.76%.
Is AA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 58 | -2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 58 | -2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 71.1 | 20.2% |
AA Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 20.202
P/S = 1.2239
P/B = 2.5605
P/EG = -0.29
Revenue TTM = 12.83b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.24b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.86b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.44b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.60b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.11b USD (15.70b + Debt 1.00m - CCE 1.60b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.85 (Ebit TTM 1.24b / Interest Expense TTM 158.0m)
EV/FCF = 24.88x (Enterprise Value 14.11b / FCF TTM 567.0m)
FCF Yield = 4.02% (FCF TTM 567.0m / Enterprise Value 14.11b)
FCF Margin = 4.42% (FCF TTM 567.0m / Revenue TTM 12.83b)
Net Margin = 8.95% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Revenue TTM 12.83b)
Gross Margin = 14.22% ((Revenue TTM 12.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.01b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.25% (prev 4.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 14.11b / Total Assets 16.21b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1600 % (Interest Expense 16.0m / Debt 1.00m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 980.4m (EBIT 1.24b * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 5.47b / Total Current Liabilities 3.77b)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 1.00m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.13b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.86 (Net Debt -1.60b / EBITDA 1.86b)
Debt / FCF = -2.81 (Net Debt -1.60b / FCF TTM 567.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 6.11b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.58% (Net Income 1.15b / Total Assets 16.21b)
RoE = 18.80% (Net Income TTM 1.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 6.11b)
RoCE = 14.52% (EBIT 1.24b / Capital Employed (Equity 6.11b + L.T.Debt 2.44b))
RoIC = 11.24% (NOPAT 980.4m / Invested Capital 8.72b)
WACC = 12.26% (E(15.70b)/V(15.70b) * Re(12.26%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 12.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 21.46%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 53.75% ; FCFF base≈357.0m ; Y1≈234.3m ; Y5≈106.9m
Fair Price DCF = 10.90 (EV 1.23b - Net Debt -1.60b = Equity 2.82b / Shares 259.0m; r=12.26% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 6.63 | EPS CAGR: -21.07% | SUE: 0.94 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 14.35 | Revenue CAGR: 0.36% | SUE: 1.77 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.20 | Chg30d=+0.083 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.75 | Chg30d=+0.613 | Revisions Net=+7 | Growth EPS=+26.1% | Growth Revenue=+7.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.97 | Chg30d=+0.352 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+4.6% | Growth Revenue=+0.9%