(ABEV) Ambev - Ratings and Ratios
Beer, Soft Drinks, Energy Drinks, Water
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 6.94% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.56% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.13% |
| Payout Consistency | 77.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 55.4% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 27.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 44.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.69% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.71 |
| Alpha | 11.39 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.415 |
| Beta | 0.373 |
| Beta Downside | 0.122 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.91% |
| Mean DD | 17.35% |
| Median DD | 17.39% |
Description: ABEV Ambev December 03, 2025
Ambev S.A. (NYSE: ABEV) is Brazil’s largest brewer and a leading beverage company in Latin America, producing and distributing beer, draft beer, carbonated soft drinks, malt-based drinks, and a range of non-alcoholic beverages across Brazil, Central America, the Caribbean, Southern Latin America, and Canada. Its portfolio mixes proprietary brands (e.g., Brahma, Antarctica, Quilmes, Presidente) with licensed global labels such as Budweiser, Corona, and Stella Artois, and it also sells third-party products like Pepsi, Lipton IceTea, and Red Bull through both third-party and direct distribution channels.
Key operational metrics (as of FY 2023) show a ≈ 12 % YoY increase in net revenue to US$ 15.5 bn, driven largely by volume growth in the premium-beer segment (+8 %) and a ≈ 5 % rise in non-beer beverage sales, which helped offset soft-drink market saturation in Brazil. The company’s EBITDA margin hovered around 27 %, reflecting strong pricing power and cost-discipline, while its free-cash-flow conversion remained above 80 % of EBITDA, supporting dividend payouts and debt reduction.
Macro-level drivers that materially affect Ambev’s outlook include Brazil’s real-exchange volatility (a 1 % depreciation historically correlates with a ≈ 0.4 % uplift in local-currency revenue), the country’s per-capita beer consumption trend (currently flat at ~ 70 l per adult, implying limited organic growth without premium-segment gains), and the broader shift toward “on-premise” consumption post-COVID, which is expected to boost draft-beer volumes by 3-4 % annually. Additionally, the company’s exposure to commodity input costs (barley, aluminum) introduces margin risk; a 10 % rise in barley prices has historically trimmed EBITDA margins by ~ 0.6 percentage points.
For a deeper quantitative view, consult ValueRay’s ABEV dashboard to explore the latest forecasts and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.0
| Net Income (16.04b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 5.43b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.15 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.63pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 5.93% (prev 8.49%; Δ -2.57pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 (>3.0%) and CFO 25.09b > Net Income 16.04b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-15.41b) to EBITDA (28.74b) ratio: -0.54 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.15 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (15.67b) change vs 12m ago -0.91% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 51.77% (prev 50.98%; Δ 0.78pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 62.82% (prev 55.95%; Δ 6.87pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 15.07 (EBITDA TTM 28.74b / Interest Expense TTM 1.51b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 5.26
| (A) 0.04 = (Total Current Assets 41.94b - Total Current Liabilities 36.58b) / Total Assets 140.75b |
| (B) 0.05 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 7.43b / Total Assets 140.75b |
| (C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 22.78b / Avg Total Assets 144.02b |
| (D) 3.59 = Book Value of Equity 172.61b / Total Liabilities 48.03b |
| Total Rating: 5.26 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 87.24
| 1. Piotroski 8.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 10.50% |
| 3. FCF Margin 22.78% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.03 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.54 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 14.48)% |
| 7. RoE 16.99% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 37.07% |
| 9. EPS Trend 36.94% |
What is the price of ABEV shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.66%, over one month by +0.79%, over three months by +10.87% and over the past year by +27.09%.
Is ABEV a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ABEV price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.8 | 11.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.8 | 11.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3 | 16.5% |
ABEV Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
P/E Trailing = 13.0
P/E Forward = 11.0011
P/S = 0.435
P/B = 2.2142
P/EG = 1.1455
Beta = 0.25
Revenue TTM = 90.47b BRL
EBIT TTM = 22.78b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 28.74b BRL
Long Term Debt = 264.1m BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.05b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.90b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -15.41b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 196.28b BRL (213.23b + Debt 2.90b - CCE 19.84b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.07 (Ebit TTM 22.78b / Interest Expense TTM 1.51b)
FCF Yield = 10.50% (FCF TTM 20.61b / Enterprise Value 196.28b)
FCF Margin = 22.78% (FCF TTM 20.61b / Revenue TTM 90.47b)
Net Margin = 17.73% (Net Income TTM 16.04b / Revenue TTM 90.47b)
Gross Margin = 51.77% ((Revenue TTM 90.47b - Cost of Revenue TTM 43.64b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.46% (prev 50.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.39 (Enterprise Value 196.28b / Total Assets 140.75b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 24.85% (Interest Expense 719.7m / Debt 2.90b)
Taxrate = 6.72% (350.2m / 5.21b)
NOPAT = 21.25b (EBIT 22.78b * (1 - 6.72%))
Current Ratio = 1.15 (Total Current Assets 41.94b / Total Current Liabilities 36.58b)
Debt / Equity = 0.03 (Debt 2.90b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 92.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.54 (Net Debt -15.41b / EBITDA 28.74b)
Debt / FCF = -0.75 (Net Debt -15.41b / FCF TTM 20.61b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 94.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.39% (Net Income 16.04b / Total Assets 140.75b)
RoE = 16.99% (Net Income TTM 16.04b / Total Stockholder Equity 94.42b)
RoCE = 24.06% (EBIT 22.78b / Capital Employed (Equity 94.42b + L.T.Debt 264.1m))
RoIC = 22.08% (NOPAT 21.25b / Invested Capital 96.24b)
WACC = 7.60% (E(213.23b)/V(216.12b) * Re(7.39%) + D(2.90b)/V(216.12b) * Rd(24.85%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 7.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.50%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.64% ; FCFE base≈20.62b ; Y1≈22.73b ; Y5≈29.30b
Fair Price DCF = 32.67 (DCF Value 509.48b / Shares Outstanding 15.59b; 5y FCF grow 11.74% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 36.94 | EPS CAGR: 2.95% | SUE: 0.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 37.07 | Revenue CAGR: -1.44% | SUE: -0.03 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.05 | Chg30d=-0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.19 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+6.1% | Growth Revenue=+4.9%
Additional Sources for ABEV Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle