(ABR) Arbor Realty Trust - Ratings and Ratios
Bridge Loans, Mezzanine Loans, Preferred Equity, Multifamily Mortgages, Agency Loans
ABR EPS (Earnings per Share)
ABR Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 55.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.28% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.05 |
| Alpha | -46.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.423 |
| Beta | 0.840 |
| Beta Downside | 0.813 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.52% |
| Mean DD | 14.24% |
| Median DD | 14.12% |
Description: ABR Arbor Realty Trust November 10, 2025
Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is a REIT that builds a diversified portfolio of structured-finance assets across multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real-estate markets in the United States. Its operations are split between a Structured Business segment-focused on bridge, mezzanine, junior-participating, and preferred-equity financing-and an Agency Business segment that originates, sells, and services multifamily mortgage loans through conduit CMBS programs.
As of the most recent FY-2023 filing, ABR reported a loan portfolio of roughly $7.2 billion, an adjusted Funds-From-Operations (AFFO) growth of 12 % year-over-year, and a dividend yield near 7.5 %. The company maintains a leverage ratio (debt-to-AFFO) of about 5.0×, which is in line with peers but leaves it moderately exposed to rising interest-rate environments.
The primary macro drivers for ABR are U.S. interest-rate trends, multifamily occupancy rates, and the supply-demand balance in the affordable-housing segment. Higher Fed rates increase borrowing costs for bridge and mezzanine loans, compressing spreads, while strong multifamily demand-currently reflected in a national occupancy rate of 96 %-supports loan performance and reduces default risk. Additionally, the ongoing shortage of affordable single-family homes creates a tailwind for ABR’s targeted financing products.
For a deeper, data-driven view of how these factors translate into valuation risk and upside, you may find it useful to explore the ABR analysis on ValueRay, where the model surfaces the key sensitivities in a transparent format.
ABR Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 2,028m |
| Sub-Industry | Mortgage REITs |
| IPO / Inception | 2004-04-07 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -40.9% |
| Analyst Rating | 2.75 of 5 |
ABR Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 15.13% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 17.45% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.74% |
| Payout Consistency | 80.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 103.9% |
ABR Growth Ratios
| CAGR 3y | -4.02% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | -0.11 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | -0.28 |
| Current Volume | 3583.3k |
| Average Volume | 2502.8k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (183.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 22.1m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.49pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -818.9% (prev 32.91%; Δ -851.8pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 436.0m > Net Income 183.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-423.4m) to EBITDA (965.9m) ratio: -0.44 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.12 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (210.5m) change vs 12m ago 2.52% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 66.73% (prev 90.90%; Δ -24.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 2.65% (prev 4.69%; Δ -2.03pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 1.30 (EBITDA TTM 965.9m / Interest Expense TTM 701.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -1.01
| (A) -0.22 = (Total Current Assets 423.4m - Total Current Liabilities 3.44b) / Total Assets 13.89b |
| (B) -0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -92.3m / Total Assets 13.89b |
| (C) 0.07 = EBIT TTM 913.0m / Avg Total Assets 13.88b |
| (D) -0.01 = Book Value of Equity -90.3m / Total Liabilities 10.77b |
| Total Rating: -1.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 52.52
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.74% = 1.87 |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 3.35 = -1.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.44 = 2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.58)% = 9.47 |
| 7. RoE 6.12% = 0.51 |
| 8. Rev. Trend -72.53% = -5.44 |
| 9. EPS Trend -82.36% = -4.12 |
What is the price of ABR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.51%, over one month by -22.96%, over three months by -21.77% and over the past year by -32.26%.
Is Arbor Realty Trust a good stock to buy?
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ABR is around 8.64 USD . This means that ABR is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -1.71%.
Is ABR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 2
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ABR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.8 | 22.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10.8 | 22.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9.1 | 3.8% |
ABR Fundamental Data Overview November 07, 2025
P/E Trailing = 12.1139
P/S = 3.6674
P/B = 1.021
P/EG = 1.2
Beta = 1.326
Revenue TTM = 368.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 913.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 965.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.41b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 3.44b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 10.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -423.4m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 11.65b USD (2.03b + Debt 10.04b - CCE 423.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.30 (Ebit TTM 913.0m / Interest Expense TTM 701.6m)
FCF Yield = 3.74% (FCF TTM 436.0m / Enterprise Value 11.65b)
FCF Margin = 118.3% (FCF TTM 436.0m / Revenue TTM 368.5m)
Net Margin = 49.85% (Net Income TTM 183.7m / Revenue TTM 368.5m)
Gross Margin = 66.73% ((Revenue TTM 368.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 122.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -48.96% (prev -50.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 11.65b / Total Assets 13.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.84% (Interest Expense 184.7m / Debt 10.04b)
Taxrate = -54.39% (out of range, set to none) (-7.59m / 14.0m)
NOPAT = unknown (EBIT/Op.Income or Taxrate missing)
Current Ratio = 0.12 (Total Current Assets 423.4m / Total Current Liabilities 3.44b)
Debt / Equity = 3.35 (Debt 10.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.44 (Net Debt -423.4m / EBITDA 965.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.97 (Net Debt -423.4m / FCF TTM 436.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.32% (Net Income 183.7m / Total Assets 13.89b)
RoE = 6.12% (Net Income TTM 183.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 9.70% (EBIT 913.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 6.41b))
RoIC = 9.11% (EBIT 913.0m / (Assets 13.89b - Curr.Liab 3.44b - Cash 423.4m))
WACC = 1.53% (E(2.03b)/V(12.07b) * Re(9.11%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.11% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -2.81%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.24% ; FCFE base≈463.0m ; Y1≈456.4m ; Y5≈470.6m
Fair Price DCF = 35.31 (DCF Value 6.91b / Shares Outstanding 195.7m; 5y FCF grow -2.27% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -82.36 | EPS CAGR: -8.73% | SUE: 2.57 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -72.53 | Revenue CAGR: -50.26% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for ABR Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle