ABR Stock Analysis: Arbor Realty Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 708m USD | 12M Return: -70.9% | US0389231087 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 23.2M
EPS Trend: -96.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 76.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is a US-based mortgage REIT that invests in a diversified portfolio of structured finance assets across the multifamily, single-family rental (SFR), and commercial real estate markets. The company operates through two segments: Structured Business, which focuses on bridge loans, mezzanine financing, preferred equity, and real estate-related joint ventures, and Agency Business, which underwrites, originates, sells, and services loans conforming to government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) guidelines for long-term permanent financing on multifamily and SFR properties. ABR also provides short-term floating-rate financing for multifamily construction projects and subordinate financing for conventional, workforce, and affordable SFR housing.
The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust (REIT) for federal income tax purposes and avoids federal corporate income tax by distributing at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders-a standard REIT requirement under US tax law. Unlike equity REITs that own physical properties, mortgage REITs like ABR primarily generate income from the interest and fees earned on their loan and securities portfolios. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Uniondale, New York, ABR has been listed on the NYSE since its 2004 IPO.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Multifamily loan origination volume drives Structured Business revenue
- Agency Business servicing fees scale on GSE loan sale volumes
| Net Income: 57.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.55 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -124.6% < 20% (prev -391.4%; Δ 266.9% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 311.8m > Net Income 57.7m |
| Net Debt (10.8b) to EBITDA (820.6m): 13.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.16 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.8m) vs 12m ago -8.71% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 92.02% > 18% (prev 90.86%; Δ 1.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.59% > 50% (prev 5.69%; Δ 2.90% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.11 > 6 (EBIT TTM 794.0m / Interest Expense TTM 718.0m) |
| A: -0.10 (Total Current Assets 287.5m - Total Current Liabilities 1.78b) / Total Assets 14.4b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -267.2m / Total Assets 14.4b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 794.0m / Avg Total Assets 14.0b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 2.78b / Total Liabilities 11.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.11 = B |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 11.9b/16.8m, Revenue 1.20b/772.0m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 90.86% / 92.02%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.95 / AQ_t-1 0.95) |
| SGI: 1.55 (Revenue 1.20b / 772.0m) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 57.7m - CFO 311.8m) / TA 14.4b) |
| Beneish M = -1.00 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of October 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 2.87 with a total of 12,425,175 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -16.71%, over one month by -38.32%, over three months by -35.10% and over the past year by -70.85%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 2.60 (which is 9.4% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Arbor Realty Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.60. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ABR.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 5.2 | 80.1% |
P/E Trailing = 38.7778
P/E Forward = 11.7371
P/S = 1.4205
P/B = 0.3645
P/EG = 1.6489
Revenue TTM = 1.20b USD
EBIT TTM = 794.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 820.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.90b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.78b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 10.8b USD (calculated: Debt 11.1b - CCE 287.5m)
Enterprise Value = 11.5b USD (707.5m + Debt 11.1b - CCE 287.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.11 (Ebit TTM 794.0m / Interest Expense TTM 718.0m)
EV/FCF = 40.54x (Enterprise Value 11.5b / FCF TTM 283.8m)
FCF Yield = 2.47% (FCF TTM 283.8m / Enterprise Value 11.5b)
FCF Margin = 23.67% (FCF TTM 283.8m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Net Margin = 4.81% (Net Income TTM 57.7m / Revenue TTM 1.20b)
Gross Margin = 92.02% ((Revenue TTM 1.20b - Cost of Revenue TTM 95.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 91.62% (prev 91.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 11.5b / Total Assets 14.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.48% (Interest Expense 718.0m / Debt 11.1b)
Taxrate = 22.40% (17.0m / 76.0m)
NOPAT = 616.2m (EBIT 794.0m * (1 - 22.40%))
Current Ratio = 0.16 (Total Current Assets 287.5m / Total Current Liabilities 1.78b)
Debt / Equity = 3.99 (Debt 11.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.78b)
Debt / EBITDA = 13.16 (Net Debt 10.8b / EBITDA 820.6m)
Debt / FCF = 38.05 (Net Debt 10.8b / FCF TTM 283.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.41% (Net Income 57.7m / Total Assets 14.4b)
RoE = 1.99% (Net Income TTM 57.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.90b)
RoCE = 9.02% (EBIT 794.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.90b + L.T.Debt 5.90b))
RoIC = 4.31% (NOPAT 616.2m / Invested Capital 14.3b)
WACC = 5.22% (E(707.5m)/V(11.8b) * Re(8.21%) + D(11.1b)/V(11.8b) * Rd(6.48%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.21% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -44.20 | Cagr: -6.68%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈307.2m ; Y1≈269.4m ; Y5≈217.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 3.49b - Net Debt 10.8b = -7.31b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -96.66 | EPS CAGR: -34.13% | SUE: 0.44 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 76.59 | Revenue CAGR: 23.39% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.06 | Chg30d=+24.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.27 | Chg30d=-0.92% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-74.8% | GrowthRev=-11.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.49 | Chg30d=-7.49% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+83.0% | GrowthRev=+3.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=1, down=5)