ABR Stock Analysis: Arbor Realty Trust | NYSE
REIT - Mortgage | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.126m USD | 12M Return: -46.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.9M
EPS Trend: -92.9%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 65.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is a specialty finance company that invests in structured finance assets across the multifamily, single-family rental (SFR), and commercial real estate markets in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Structured Business and Agency Business. It provides a range of financing products including bridge loans, mezzanine loans, preferred equity, and joint venture investments, serving borrowers needing short-term capital for acquisitions, development, or refinancing. Its focus spans conventional, workforce, and affordable housing, and it also originates and services loans conforming to government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) guidelines, as well as long-term fixed-rate SFR loans.
As a mortgage REIT, Arbor is required to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders to maintain its tax-advantaged status, which generally exempts it from federal corporate income taxes. Unlike equity REITs that own and operate physical properties, mortgage REITs primarily generate income from interest on loan portfolios and investments in mortgage-related securities, making their earnings sensitive to interest rate movements and credit spreads. The company was incorporated in 2003, is headquartered in Uniondale, New York, and has been listed on the NYSE since 2004.
- Net interest margin compresses as funding costs outpace asset yields
- Multifamily credit losses rise pressuring loan loss provisions
- Structured Business originations slow amid rate uncertainty
| Net Income: 119.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -218.9% < 20% (prev -434.9%; Δ 216.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 213.6m > Net Income 119.0m |
| Net Debt (11.0b) to EBITDA (881.1m): 12.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (211.7m) vs 12m ago 2.36% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 92.58% > 18% (prev 89.15%; Δ 3.43% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.61% > 50% (prev 4.58%; Δ 4.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 854.5m / Interest Expense TTM 711.8m) |
| A: -0.18 (Total Current Assets 407.1m - Total Current Liabilities 3.05b) / Total Assets 14.7b |
| B: -0.01 (Retained Earnings -194.1m / Total Assets 14.7b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 854.5m / Avg Total Assets 14.0b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 2.87b / Total Liabilities 11.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.56 = B |
| DSRI: 1.86 (Receivables 35.3m/9.61m, Revenue 1.21b/612.9m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 89.15% / 92.58%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.94 / AQ_t-1 0.95) |
| SGI: 1.97 (Revenue 1.21b / 612.9m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 119.0m - CFO 213.6m) / TA 14.7b) |
| Beneish M = -1.66 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of July 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.27 with a total of 5,475,342 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.93%, over one month by -2.77%, over three months by -27.65% and over the past year by -46.05%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.90 (which is 7% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Arbor Realty Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.75. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ABR.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.3 | 37.6% |
P/E Trailing = 13.5
P/E Forward = 11.7371
P/S = 2.123
P/B = 0.4645
P/EG = 1.6489
Revenue TTM = 1.21b USD
EBIT TTM = 854.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 881.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.39b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 3.05b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.0b USD (calculated: Debt 11.4b - CCE 407.1m)
Enterprise Value = 12.1b USD (1.13b + Debt 11.4b - CCE 407.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.20 (Ebit TTM 854.5m / Interest Expense TTM 711.8m)
EV/FCF = 61.21x (Enterprise Value 12.1b / FCF TTM 197.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.63% (FCF TTM 197.3m / Enterprise Value 12.1b)
FCF Margin = 16.34% (FCF TTM 197.3m / Revenue TTM 1.21b)
Net Margin = 9.85% (Net Income TTM 119.0m / Revenue TTM 1.21b)
Gross Margin = 92.58% ((Revenue TTM 1.21b - Cost of Revenue TTM 89.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 91.07% (prev 91.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.82 (Enterprise Value 12.1b / Total Assets 14.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.27% (Interest Expense 711.8m / Debt 11.4b)
Taxrate = 12.10% (17.3m / 142.7m)
NOPAT = 751.1m (EBIT 854.5m * (1 - 12.10%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 407.1m / Total Current Liabilities 3.05b)
Debt / Equity = 3.96 (Debt 11.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 12.43 (Net Debt 11.0b / EBITDA 881.1m)
Debt / FCF = 55.50 (Net Debt 11.0b / FCF TTM 197.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.95b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.85% (Net Income 119.0m / Total Assets 14.7b)
RoE = 4.03% (Net Income TTM 119.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.95b)
RoCE = 9.15% (EBIT 854.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.95b + L.T.Debt 6.39b))
RoIC = 5.13% (NOPAT 751.1m / Invested Capital 14.6b)
WACC = 5.79% (E(1.13b)/V(12.5b) * Re(8.63%) + D(11.4b)/V(12.5b) * Rd(6.27%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 8.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 20.0 | Cagr: -2.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈259.3m ; Y1≈227.3m ; Y5≈183.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.95b - Net Debt 11.0b = -8.01b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -92.92 | EPS CAGR: -26.87% | SUE: -2.37 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 65.79 | Revenue CAGR: 16.83% | SUE: 0.79 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.09 | Chg30d=-5.64% | Revisions=-56% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.31 | Chg30d=-1.73% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-70.8% | GrowthRev=-9.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=-11.64% | Revisions=-56% | GrowthEPS=+114.1% | GrowthRev=+7.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -56%