(ABR) Arbor Realty Trust - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US0389231087

Bridge Loans, Mezzanine Debt, Preferred Equity, Agency Multifamily Loans

Mortgage REITs
Market Cap in USD: 1,629m

IPO / Inception: 2004-04-07
12m vs SPY: -44.9%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -46.61%
EPS Trend: -58.0%

Last SUE: -3.30
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -39.70%
Rev. Trend: -60.3%

Last SUE: -0.37
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	12.36%
Yield on Cost 5y	15.83%
Yield CAGR 5y	-0.92%
Payout Consistency	80.0%
Payout Ratio	103.9%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	38.5%
Value at Risk 5%th	58.5%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.66%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.97
Alpha	-51.13
CAGR/Max DD	-0.18

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.453
Beta	0.864
Beta Downside	0.761

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	42.85%
Mean DD	15.89%
Median DD	15.21%

Description: ABR Arbor Realty Trust January 13, 2026

Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE:ABR) is a U.S. REIT that assembles a diversified pool of structured-finance assets across multifamily, single-family rental, and commercial real-estate markets. Its core strategy is to generate yield by originating, acquiring, and managing bridge and mezzanine loans, junior participation interests, preferred equity stakes, and related mortgage-backed securities.

The firm operates two main segments: a Structured Business that focuses on higher-yield, short-term financing (e.g., bridge loans, mezzanine debt, junior participation) and an Agency Business that underwrites, originates, and services multifamily mortgages through conduit CMBS programs. This bifurcated model lets ABR capture both spread income from risk-adjusted debt and servicing fees from agency-originated loans.

As a qualified REIT, ABR must distribute at least 90 % of its taxable income to shareholders to avoid corporate income tax. Consequently, its dividend policy is a key driver of total return, and any deviation from the 90 % payout threshold would materially affect net income available to investors.

Recent data (Q4 2023) show an adjusted FFO of $0.45 per share, a loan portfolio of roughly $7.2 billion with a weighted-average loan-to-value of 73 %, and a net interest spread of 3.2 % over the LIBOR-plus benchmark. The sector is currently sensitive to the Fed’s rate trajectory; higher rates compress loan spreads but also boost demand for bridge financing as borrowers seek to lock in financing before rates climb further.

For a deeper dive into how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst tools to see ABR’s projected cash-flow scenarios under different rate-path assumptions.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0

Net Income (183.7m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 22.1m TTM)

FCFTA 0.03 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.41pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -818.9% (prev -331.5%; Δ -487.4pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 436.0m > Net Income 183.7m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (6.25b) to EBITDA (949.0m) ratio: 6.59 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.12 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (210.5m) change vs 12m ago 2.52% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 66.73% (prev 90.90%; Δ -24.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 2.65% (prev 4.69%; Δ -2.03pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 1.28 (EBITDA TTM 949.0m / Interest Expense TTM 701.6m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' -1.02

(A) -0.22 = (Total Current Assets 423.4m - Total Current Liabilities 3.44b) / Total Assets 13.89b

(B) -0.01 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -92.3m / Total Assets 13.89b

(D) -0.01 = Book Value of Equity -90.3m / Total Liabilities 10.77b

Total Rating: -1.02 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 44.13

1. Piotroski 3.0pt

2. FCF Yield 5.53%

3. FCF Margin data missing

4. Debt/Equity 2.23

5. Debt/Ebitda 6.59

6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.88)%

7. RoE 6.12%

8. Rev. Trend -60.26%

9. EPS Trend -57.96%

What is the price of ABR shares?

As of January 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.75 with a total of 3,115,564 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.64%, over one month by -7.52%, over three months by -31.03% and over the past year by -33.42%.

Is ABR a buy, sell or hold?

Arbor Realty Trust has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.75. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ABR.

Strong Buy: 0
Buy: 1
Hold: 1
Sell: 2
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ABR price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	9.4	21%
Analysts Target Price	9.4	21%
ValueRay Target Price	8.8	13.2%

ABR Fundamental Data Overview January 09, 2026

P/E Trailing = 9.7342
P/S = 2.9469
P/B = 0.6367
P/EG = 1.2
Beta = 1.34
Revenue TTM = 368.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 896.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 949.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.27b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 403.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.68b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.25b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.88b USD (1.63b + Debt 6.68b - CCE 423.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.28 (Ebit TTM 896.1m / Interest Expense TTM 701.6m)
EV/FCF = 18.08x (Enterprise Value 7.88b / FCF TTM 436.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.53% (FCF TTM 436.0m / Enterprise Value 7.88b)
FCF Margin = 118.3% (FCF TTM 436.0m / Revenue TTM 368.5m)
Net Margin = 49.85% (Net Income TTM 183.7m / Revenue TTM 368.5m)
Gross Margin = 66.73% ((Revenue TTM 368.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 122.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -48.96% (prev -50.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.57 (Enterprise Value 7.88b / Total Assets 13.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.77% (Interest Expense 184.7m / Debt 6.68b)
Taxrate = 54.39% (7.59m / 14.0m)
NOPAT = 408.7m (EBIT 896.1m * (1 - 54.39%))
Current Ratio = 0.12 (Total Current Assets 423.4m / Total Current Liabilities 3.44b)
Debt / Equity = 2.23 (Debt 6.68b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 6.59 (Net Debt 6.25b / EBITDA 949.0m)
Debt / FCF = 14.34 (Net Debt 6.25b / FCF TTM 436.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.32% (Net Income 183.7m / Total Assets 13.89b)
RoE = 6.12% (Net Income TTM 183.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.00b)
RoCE = 9.66% (EBIT 896.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.00b + L.T.Debt 6.27b))
RoIC = 4.68% (NOPAT 408.7m / Invested Capital 8.73b)
WACC = 2.80% (E(1.63b)/V(8.30b) * Re(9.10%) + D(6.68b)/V(8.30b) * Rd(2.77%) * (1-Tc(0.54)))
Discount Rate = 9.10% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -2.81%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.17% ; FCFF base≈458.5m ; Y1≈450.8m ; Y5≈461.4m
Fair Price DCF = 38.52 (EV 13.79b - Net Debt 6.25b = Equity 7.54b / Shares 195.7m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -2.57% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -57.96 | EPS CAGR: -46.61% | SUE: -3.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -60.26 | Revenue CAGR: -39.70% | SUE: -0.37 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.86 | Chg30d=-0.028 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=-8.1% | Growth Revenue=-10.9%

Additional Sources for ABR Stock

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