ADM Stock Analysis: Archer-Daniels-Midland | NYSE
Farm Products | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 34.142m USD | 12M Return: 28.9% | US0394831020 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 231M
EPS Trend: -67.4%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -86.5%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) is a global agribusiness that supplies human and animal nutrition ingredients, operating across more than half a dozen countries with its headquarters in Chicago, Illinois. Founded in 1902 and listed on the NYSE since 1983, the company sits in the Consumer Staples sector under Agricultural Products & Services, a grouping that typically includes commodity-driven, vertically integrated food and feed processors.
ADM runs three reporting segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds (sourcing, transporting, storing, and crushing raw commodities such as soybeans, canola, sunflower, and cottonseed into oils and protein meals); Carbohydrate Solutions (corn and wheat wet and dry milling, producing sweeteners, ethanol co-products like distillers grains, and running carbon capture initiatives); and Nutrition (plant-based proteins, flavors, colors, emulsifiers, fibers, probiotics, enzymes, and other specialty ingredients for food and feed customers). The business model is vertically integrated, linking farm-level origination to ingredient manufacturing, which is characteristic of large-scale agricultural processors that serve food, feed, energy, and industrial end-markets.
In addition to its core processing activities, ADM is involved in structured trade finance, derivatives and commodity exchange transactions, and captive insurance coverage for property, casualty, marine, and medical risks, reflecting the broad operational footprint typical of multinational commodity handlers.
- Soybean crushing margins and global grain exports drive Ag Services
- Nutrition segment margins expand on flavors and plant-based protein demand
- Accounting investigation and leadership transition pressure capital allocation
| Net Income: 2.48b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.86% < 20% (prev 8.61%; Δ 2.25% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 1.48b > Net Income 2.48b |
| Net Debt (1.76b) to EBITDA (4.74b): 0.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.45 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (484.0m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.44% > 18% (prev 5.77%; Δ 1.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 156.7% > 50% (prev 160.3%; Δ -3.66% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.88 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.55b / Interest Expense TTM 604.0m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 29.6b - Total Current Liabilities 20.5b) / Total Assets 55.4b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 22.9b / Total Assets 55.4b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 3.55b / Avg Total Assets 53.7b) |
| D: 0.76 (Book Value of Equity 23.9b / Total Liabilities 31.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.67 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.29 (Receivables 7.95b/6.09b, Revenue 84.1b/83.2b) |
| GMI: 0.78 (GM 5.77% / 7.44%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 84.1b / 83.2b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 2.48b - CFO 1.48b) / TA 55.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 70.47 with a total of 5,270,546 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.52%, over one month by -14.55%, over three months by -8.59% and over the past year by +28.85%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 67.50 (which is 4.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Archer-Daniels-Midland has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold ADM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 80.3 | 13.9% |
P/E Trailing = 13.8359
P/E Forward = 12.9366
P/S = 0.4062
P/B = 1.4434
P/EG = 0.8404
Revenue TTM = 84.1b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.55b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.74b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.61b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.61b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 11.4b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.33b
Net Debt = 1.76b USD (calculated: Debt 11.4b - CCE 9.63b)
Enterprise Value = 35.9b USD (34.1b + Debt 11.4b - CCE 9.63b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.88 (Ebit TTM 3.55b / Interest Expense TTM 604.0m)
EV/FCF = 103.8x (Enterprise Value 35.9b / FCF TTM 346.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.96% (FCF TTM 346.0m / Enterprise Value 35.9b)
FCF Margin = 0.41% (FCF TTM 346.0m / Revenue TTM 84.1b)
Net Margin = 2.95% (Net Income TTM 2.48b / Revenue TTM 84.1b)
Gross Margin = 7.44% ((Revenue TTM 84.1b - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.8b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 8.44% (prev 8.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 35.9b / Total Assets 55.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.30% (Interest Expense 604.0m / Debt 11.4b)
Taxrate = 15.28% (450.0m / 2.94b)
NOPAT = 3.01b (EBIT 3.55b * (1 - 15.28%))
Current Ratio = 1.45 (Total Current Assets 29.6b / Total Current Liabilities 20.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 11.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.9b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.37 (Net Debt 1.76b / EBITDA 4.74b)
Debt / FCF = 5.10 (Net Debt 1.76b / FCF TTM 346.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 23.2b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.63% (Net Income 2.48b / Total Assets 55.4b)
RoE = 10.68% (Net Income TTM 2.48b / Total Stockholder Equity 23.2b)
RoCE = 11.50% (EBIT 3.55b / Capital Employed (Equity 23.2b + L.T.Debt 7.61b))
RoIC = 9.30% (NOPAT 3.01b / Invested Capital 32.3b)
WACC = 5.68% (E(34.1b)/V(45.5b) * Re(6.08%) + D(11.4b)/V(45.5b) * Rd(5.30%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 6.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.07 | Cagr: -1.08%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈2.09b ; Y1≈1.83b ; Y5≈1.48b
[DCF] Fair Price = 45.63 (EV 23.8b - Net Debt 1.76b = Equity 22.0b / Shares 482.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -67.37 | EPS CAGR: -16.08% | SUE: 0.97 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -86.48 | Revenue CAGR: -4.63% | SUE: -1.33 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=1.35 | Chg30d=-3.30% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.59 | Chg30d=+1.58% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+62.9% | GrowthRev=+6.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.67 | Chg30d=+0.07% | Revisions=-29% | GrowthEPS=+1.6% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +8% (up=5, down=4)