(ADM) Archer-Daniels-Midland - Overview
Stock: Oilseeds, Grains, Sweeteners, Starches, Proteins
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 26.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.28% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.44 |
| Alpha | 44.91 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.374 |
| Beta Downside | 0.518 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 49.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.06 |
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Description: ADM Archer-Daniels-Midland February 11, 2026
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a vertically integrated agribusiness that procures, transports, stores, processes, and markets a broad portfolio of agricultural commodities and derived ingredients. Its operations are organized into three segments-Ag Services & Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition-covering everything from raw oilseeds and soft seeds to specialty food-grade proteins, flavors, and bio-based industrial products.
In its most recent fiscal year (2024), ADM reported revenue of roughly **$77 billion**, an adjusted EBITDA of **$5.3 billion**, and a net income of **$2.1 billion**, reflecting a **7% operating margin** after a year of volatile grain prices. The company’s EBITDA margin has historically trended around 6-8%, suggesting the current performance is in line with long-term averages, though the margin is sensitive to commodity price swings.
Key economic drivers for ADM include: (1) **global grain price inflation**, with the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates showing a 12% year-over-year rise in corn and soybeans prices in 2024; (2) **biofuel policy support**, where the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard has kept ethanol demand growing at ~3% annually, sustaining demand for ADM’s corn-based ethanol and biodiesel feedstocks; and (3) **expanding demand for plant-based proteins**, which is projected to grow at a 9% CAGR through 2028, bolstering the Nutrition segment’s specialty ingredient sales.
Geographically, ADM operates across North America, Europe, and South America, with Brazil and the United States accounting for roughly 55% of total volume-a concentration that makes the firm vulnerable to regional weather events and trade policy shifts.
Given the tight coupling between commodity price cycles and ADM’s margin profile, analysts should monitor forward curves for soybeans and corn, as well as policy developments around renewable fuels, to gauge near-term earnings volatility.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation framework, you might find ValueRay’s sector-specific analytics useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 1.08b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 9.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.13% < 20% (prev 9.10%; Δ 1.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 5.45b > Net Income 1.08b |
| Net Debt (7.39b) to EBITDA (3.87b): 1.91 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 11.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (484.0m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.80% > 18% (prev 0.07%; Δ 573.4% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 182.6% > 50% (prev 160.6%; Δ 22.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.16 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.87b / Interest Expense TTM 580.0m) |
Altman Z'' 7.92
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 8.94b - Total Current Liabilities 798.0m) / Total Assets 34.66b |
| B: 0.63 (Retained Earnings 21.98b / Total Assets 34.66b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.83b / Avg Total Assets 43.97b) |
| D: 3.84 (Book Value of Equity 44.72b / Total Liabilities 11.63b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.92 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.03
| DSRI: 0.54 (Receivables 3.02b/5.95b, Revenue 80.29b/85.53b) |
| GMI: 1.16 (GM 5.80% / 6.76%) |
| AQI: 1.67 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 80.29b / 85.53b) |
| TATA: -0.13 (NI 1.08b - CFO 5.45b) / TA 34.66b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ADM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.61%, over one month by +3.81%, over three months by +18.18% and over the past year by +50.96%.
Is ADM a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ADM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 60.7 | -10.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 60.7 | -10.5% |
ADM Fundamental Data Overview February 21, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.9492
P/S = 0.4123
P/B = 1.4507
P/EG = 16.4259
Revenue TTM = 80.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.83b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 7.61b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 798.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.41b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.39b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 40.49b USD (33.09b + Debt 8.41b - CCE 1.01b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.16 (Ebit TTM 1.83b / Interest Expense TTM 580.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.63x (Enterprise Value 40.49b / FCF TTM 4.20b)
FCF Yield = 10.38% (FCF TTM 4.20b / Enterprise Value 40.49b)
FCF Margin = 5.24% (FCF TTM 4.20b / Revenue TTM 80.29b)
Net Margin = 1.34% (Net Income TTM 1.08b / Revenue TTM 80.29b)
Gross Margin = 5.80% ((Revenue TTM 80.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 75.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 6.54% (prev 6.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.17 (Enterprise Value 40.49b / Total Assets 34.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.69% (Interest Expense 142.0m / Debt 8.41b)
Taxrate = 4.62% (22.0m / 476.0m)
NOPAT = 1.75b (EBIT 1.83b * (1 - 4.62%))
Current Ratio = 11.20 (Total Current Assets 8.94b / Total Current Liabilities 798.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 8.41b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 22.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.91 (Net Debt 7.39b / EBITDA 3.87b)
Debt / FCF = 1.76 (Net Debt 7.39b / FCF TTM 4.20b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.44b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.45% (Net Income 1.08b / Total Assets 34.66b)
RoE = 4.80% (Net Income TTM 1.08b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.44b)
RoCE = 6.11% (EBIT 1.83b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.44b + L.T.Debt 7.61b))
RoIC = 5.52% (NOPAT 1.75b / Invested Capital 31.73b)
WACC = 6.14% (E(33.09b)/V(41.50b) * Re(7.29%) + D(8.41b)/V(41.50b) * Rd(1.69%) * (1-Tc(0.05)))
Discount Rate = 7.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -81.65 | Cagr: -4.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 87.58% ; FCFF base≈3.01b ; Y1≈3.72b ; Y5≈6.33b
Fair Price DCF = 339.4 (EV 170.51b - Net Debt 7.39b = Equity 163.11b / Shares 480.6m; r=6.14% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -92.41 | EPS CAGR: -18.80% | SUE: -0.15 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -88.20 | Revenue CAGR: -6.26% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.75 | Chg30d=-0.115 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.01 | Chg30d=-0.236 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+16.8% | Growth Revenue=+3.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.66 | Chg30d=-0.032 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+16.4% | Growth Revenue=+2.4%