(AER) AerCap Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Aircraft, Engines, Helicopters, Leasing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.60% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 44.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 18.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.5% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 36.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.44% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.59 |
| Alpha | 33.71 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.646 |
| Beta | 0.804 |
| Beta Downside | 1.150 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.14% |
| Mean DD | 4.20% |
| Median DD | 3.01% |
Description: AER AerCap Holdings December 19, 2025
AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) is a global aircraft leasing and asset-management firm that acquires, finances, leases, and disposes of commercial airframes, engines, and helicopters across the United States, China, and other markets. Its services span full-cycle asset management-including remarketing, maintenance monitoring, contract enforcement, repossession, insurance, valuation, and market research-plus treasury, cash-management, and corporate-secretarial functions for its lessee base.
Key operating metrics (as of FY 2024) include a portfolio of roughly 3,525 aircraft, engines, and helicopters, an EBITDA margin of about 24 %, a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 4.2×, and an average lease rate of 5.8 % on a 10-year basis. The company reported a backlog of $12 billion in orders, reflecting strong demand for newer, fuel-efficient models, and its return on invested capital (ROIC) has hovered around 9 % over the past three years.
The leasing sector’s performance is driven primarily by global airline capacity growth (projected at 3-4 % CAGR through 2030), the pace of new-generation aircraft deliveries, and macro-financial conditions such as interest-rate levels and currency volatility that affect lease financing costs. Additionally, fuel-price dynamics and regulatory shifts toward lower-emission fleets amplify demand for modern, efficient aircraft, which benefits AerCap’s newer-fleet focus.
For a deeper, data-rich perspective on AerCap’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (3.79b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 475.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.18pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -21.03% (prev 74.81%; Δ -95.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 5.55b > Net Income 3.79b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (42.21b) to EBITDA (5.35b) ratio: 7.89 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.62 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (174.1m) change vs 12m ago -9.29% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 53.94% (prev 58.00%; Δ -4.06pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 10.88% (prev 10.60%; Δ 0.28pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.21 (EBITDA TTM 5.35b / Interest Expense TTM 2.10b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.29
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 2.73b - Total Current Liabilities 4.40b) / Total Assets 71.94b |
| (B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 15.73b / Total Assets 71.94b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 4.63b / Avg Total Assets 72.88b |
| (D) 0.29 = Book Value of Equity 15.68b / Total Liabilities 53.79b |
| Total Rating: 1.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.05
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -0.21% |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.81% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.43 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 7.89 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.46)% |
| 7. RoE 21.51% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 76.22% |
| 9. EPS Trend -7.35% |
What is the price of AER shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.66%, over one month by -1.36%, over three months by +18.27% and over the past year by +50.93%.
Is AER a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AER price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 152.3 | 6.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 152.3 | 6.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 189.8 | 32.9% |
AER Fundamental Data Overview January 17, 2026
P/E Forward = 7.4405
P/S = 3.0691
P/B = 1.3302
P/EG = 0.91
Revenue TTM = 7.93b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.63b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 44.03b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 44.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 42.21b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 67.83b USD (25.61b + Debt 44.03b - CCE 1.81b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.21 (Ebit TTM 4.63b / Interest Expense TTM 2.10b)
EV/FCF = -473.7x (Enterprise Value 67.83b / FCF TTM -143.2m)
FCF Yield = -0.21% (FCF TTM -143.2m / Enterprise Value 67.83b)
FCF Margin = -1.81% (FCF TTM -143.2m / Revenue TTM 7.93b)
Net Margin = 47.78% (Net Income TTM 3.79b / Revenue TTM 7.93b)
Gross Margin = 53.94% ((Revenue TTM 7.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.97% (prev 32.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 67.83b / Total Assets 71.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 485.9m / Debt 44.03b)
Taxrate = 14.02% (198.2m / 1.41b)
NOPAT = 3.99b (EBIT 4.63b * (1 - 14.02%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 2.73b / Total Current Liabilities 4.40b)
Debt / Equity = 2.43 (Debt 44.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.89 (Net Debt 42.21b / EBITDA 5.35b)
Debt / FCF = -294.9 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 42.21b / FCF TTM -143.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.20% (Net Income 3.79b / Total Assets 71.94b)
RoE = 21.51% (Net Income TTM 3.79b / Total Stockholder Equity 17.62b)
RoCE = 7.52% (EBIT 4.63b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.62b + L.T.Debt 44.03b))
RoIC = 6.32% (NOPAT 3.99b / Invested Capital 63.02b)
WACC = 3.87% (E(25.61b)/V(69.64b) * Re(8.88%) + D(44.03b)/V(69.64b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 8.88% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.07%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -143.2m)
EPS Correlation: -7.35 | EPS CAGR: -44.54% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 76.22 | Revenue CAGR: 7.53% | SUE: -1.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.59 | Chg30d=+0.044 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=14.80 | Chg30d=+0.058 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+0.6% | Growth Revenue=-0.2%
Additional Sources for AER Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle