AER Stock Analysis: AerCap Holdings | NYSE
Rental & Leasing Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 24.073m USD | 12M Return: 22.8% | NL0000687663 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 156M
EPS Trend: 93.0%
Qual. Beats: 5
Rev. Trend: 89.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AerCap Holdings N.V. (AER) is a Dublin-based commercial aviation company whose primary business is the lease, financing, sale, and management of aircraft, engines, and helicopters. Founded in 1995 and listed on the NYSE since 2006, it operates globally, with a portfolio of approximately 3,500 owned, managed, or on-order assets.
The company generates revenue through aircraft leasing rentals and a broad set of asset management services for lessees, including contract compliance monitoring, maintenance oversight, lease restructuring, repossessions, insurance coordination, aircraft registration, and market research. It also provides corporate administrative services such as accounting, treasury, and cash management, as well as airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines, MRO providers, and parts distributors.
AerCap operates within the aircraft leasing sector, a capital-intensive industry that purchases aircraft directly from manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing and leases them to commercial airlines under long-term contracts, typically earning recurring rental income supplemented by maintenance reserves and asset trading gains. The leasing model allows airlines to preserve capital and manage fleet flexibility, while lessors like AerCap generate returns through lease yield, asset appreciation, and trading profits on secondary aircraft sales.
- Narrowbody aircraft demand lifts lease rates and utilization
- Higher interest expense pressures leasing margins
- Aircraft portfolio sales and trading gains drive earnings
| Net Income: 3.13b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.81 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -13.51% < 20% (prev -21.03%; Δ 7.51% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 5.94b > Net Income 3.13b |
| Net Debt (40.7b) to EBITDA (7.63b): 5.33 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (153.9m) vs 12m ago -11.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 61.56% > 18% (prev 53.94%; Δ 7.62% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.12% > 50% (prev 11.02%; Δ 1.09% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.68 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.05b / Interest Expense TTM 1.89b) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 4.28b - Total Current Liabilities 5.45b) / Total Assets 72.1b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 18.6b / Total Assets 72.1b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 5.05b / Avg Total Assets 72.0b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 18.6b / Total Liabilities 53.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.57 = BB |
| DSRI: 2.10 (Receivables 1.62b/702.1m, Revenue 8.72b/7.93b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 53.94% / 61.56%) |
| AQI: 0.80 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 8.72b / 7.93b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 3.13b - CFO 5.94b) / TA 72.1b) |
| Beneish M = -2.28 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of October 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 158.52 with a total of 1,484,494 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.63%, over one month by +9.25%, over three months by +3.97% and over the past year by +22.82%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 153.50 (which is 3.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
AerCap Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.60. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AER.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 186.6 | 17.7% |
P/E Trailing = 8.1043
P/E Forward = 8.8731
P/S = 2.6546
P/B = 1.3024
P/EG = 0.8038
Revenue TTM = 8.72b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.05b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.63b USD
Long Term Debt = 43.3b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 43.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 42.4m
Net Debt = 40.7b USD (calculated: Debt 43.3b - CCE 2.65b)
Enterprise Value = 64.7b USD (24.1b + Debt 43.3b - CCE 2.65b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.68 (Ebit TTM 5.05b / Interest Expense TTM 1.89b)
EV/FCF = -86.92x (Enterprise Value 64.7b / FCF TTM -744.7m)
FCF Yield = -1.15% (FCF TTM -744.7m / Enterprise Value 64.7b)
FCF Margin = -8.54% (FCF TTM -744.7m / Revenue TTM 8.72b)
Net Margin = 35.82% (Net Income TTM 3.13b / Revenue TTM 8.72b)
Gross Margin = 61.56% ((Revenue TTM 8.72b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.35b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 66.35% (prev 61.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 64.7b / Total Assets 72.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.35% (Interest Expense 1.89b / Debt 43.3b)
Taxrate = 12.89% (462.3m / 3.59b)
NOPAT = 4.40b (EBIT 5.05b * (1 - 12.89%))
Current Ratio = 0.78 (Total Current Assets 4.28b / Total Current Liabilities 5.45b)
Debt / Equity = 2.33 (Debt 43.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.6b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.33 (Net Debt 40.7b / EBITDA 7.63b)
Debt / FCF = -54.60 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 40.7b / FCF TTM -744.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.4b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.34% (Net Income 3.13b / Total Assets 72.1b)
RoE = 16.95% (Net Income TTM 3.13b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.4b)
RoCE = 8.18% (EBIT 5.05b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.4b + L.T.Debt 43.3b))
RoIC = 6.65% (NOPAT 4.40b / Invested Capital 66.2b)
WACC = 5.42% (E(24.1b)/V(67.4b) * Re(8.35%) + D(43.3b)/V(67.4b) * Rd(4.35%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 8.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.46 | Cagr: -10.38%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -744.7m)
EPS Correlation: 92.99 | EPS CAGR: 25.33% | SUE: 2.94 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 89.13 | Revenue CAGR: 3.67% | SUE: 1.63 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=4.41 | Chg30d=+2.37% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=21.89 | Chg30d=+16.92% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+42.4% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=19.04 | Chg30d=+4.56% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=-13.0% | GrowthRev=-6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +44% (up=5, down=1)