AER Stock Analysis: AerCap Holdings | NYSE
Rental & Leasing Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 24.029m USD | 12M Return: 42.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 148M
EPS Trend: 92.5%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 93.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AerCap Holdings N.V. is a Dublin-headquartered company that leases, finances, sells, and manages commercial aircraft, engines, and helicopters, operating primarily in the United States, China, and other international markets. Beyond pure leasing, the company provides aircraft and engine asset management services, including remarketing, lease compliance monitoring, maintenance oversight, repossession, insurance coordination, and market research, as well as corporate administrative services such as accounting, treasury, and cash management. It also supplies airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines, MRO providers, and parts distributors, and maintains a combined portfolio of approximately 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters that are owned, managed, or on order.
The company sits within the Industrials sector under the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry, and as one of the worlds largest aircraft lessors it operates a capital-intensive business model that relies on long-term operating leases, secondary market trading of flight equipment, and cross-border financing structures. Dublin has historically been a favored jurisdiction for aircraft leasing companies due to Irelands extensive network of double tax treaties and its specialized aviation finance regulatory framework, which helps lessors like AerCap manage withholding tax exposure on cross-border lease income.
- Air travel recovery pushes lease rates and utilization higher
- Narrowbody aircraft values strengthen on constrained supply
- Share buybacks and dividends accelerate capital returns
- Lower interest rates reduce aircraft lease financing costs
| Net Income: 3.39b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -20.85% < 20% (prev 64.55%; Δ -85.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 5.67b > Net Income 3.39b |
| Net Debt (41.0b) to EBITDA (7.54b): 5.44 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.68 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (158.0m) vs 12m ago -11.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.86% > 18% (prev 52.13%; Δ 7.73% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.46% > 50% (prev 10.84%; Δ 0.62% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 5.58b / Interest Expense TTM 1.90b) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 3.69b - Total Current Liabilities 5.42b) / Total Assets 71.2b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 17.7b / Total Assets 71.2b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 5.58b / Avg Total Assets 72.4b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 18.4b / Total Liabilities 52.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.54 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.52 (Receivables 1.89b/3.46b, Revenue 8.30b/7.98b) |
| GMI: 0.87 (GM 52.13% / 59.86%) |
| AQI: 1.54 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 8.30b / 7.98b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 3.39b - CFO 5.67b) / TA 71.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.19 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 02, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 150.90 with a total of 1,182,391 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.26%, over one month by +3.51%, over three months by +6.41% and over the past year by +42.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 144.70 (which is 4.1% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
AerCap Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AER.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 170.9 | 13.2% |
P/E Trailing = 7.512
P/E Forward = 8.2576
P/S = 2.6812
P/B = 1.2731
P/EG = 0.8038
Revenue TTM = 8.30b USD
EBIT TTM = 5.58b USD
EBITDA TTM = 7.54b USD
Long Term Debt = 42.8b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 42.8b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 45.1m
Net Debt = 41.0b USD (calculated: Debt 42.8b - CCE 1.80b)
Enterprise Value = 65.0b USD (24.0b + Debt 42.8b - CCE 1.80b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.94 (Ebit TTM 5.58b / Interest Expense TTM 1.90b)
EV/FCF = -205.1x (Enterprise Value 65.0b / FCF TTM -317.1m)
FCF Yield = -0.49% (FCF TTM -317.1m / Enterprise Value 65.0b)
FCF Margin = -3.82% (FCF TTM -317.1m / Revenue TTM 8.30b)
Net Margin = 40.87% (Net Income TTM 3.39b / Revenue TTM 8.30b)
Gross Margin = 59.86% ((Revenue TTM 8.30b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.89% (prev 65.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 65.0b / Total Assets 71.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.43% (Interest Expense 1.90b / Debt 42.8b)
Taxrate = 13.68% (537.6m / 3.93b)
NOPAT = 4.81b (EBIT 5.58b * (1 - 13.68%))
Current Ratio = 0.68 (Total Current Assets 3.69b / Total Current Liabilities 5.42b)
Debt / Equity = 2.33 (Debt 42.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.44 (Net Debt 41.0b / EBITDA 7.54b)
Debt / FCF = -129.4 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 41.0b / FCF TTM -317.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.69% (Net Income 3.39b / Total Assets 71.2b)
RoE = 18.52% (Net Income TTM 3.39b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.3b)
RoCE = 9.13% (EBIT 5.58b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.3b + L.T.Debt 42.8b))
RoIC = 7.36% (NOPAT 4.81b / Invested Capital 65.4b)
WACC = 5.71% (E(24.0b)/V(66.8b) * Re(9.08%) + D(42.8b)/V(66.8b) * Rd(4.43%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.04 | Cagr: -9.97%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -317.1m)
EPS Correlation: 92.49 | EPS CAGR: 21.70% | SUE: 1.80 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 93.38 | Revenue CAGR: 3.10% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.96 | Chg30d=+0.88% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.42 | Chg30d=+1.27% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=+13.3% | GrowthRev=-0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=17.23 | Chg30d=+1.23% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=-1.1% | GrowthRev=-0.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +58% (up=19, down=4)