(AER) AerCap Holdings - Ratings and Ratios
Aircraft,Engines,Helicopters,Parts,Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 24.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 39.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.27% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.28 |
| Alpha | 29.10 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.540 |
| Beta | 0.814 |
| Beta Downside | 1.172 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.14% |
| Mean DD | 4.29% |
| Median DD | 3.10% |
Description: AER AerCap Holdings October 16, 2025
AerCap Holdings N.V. (NYSE:AER) is a Dublin-based global aircraft leasing and asset-management firm that acquires, finances, leases, sells, and manages commercial flight equipment-including airframes, engines, and helicopters-across the United States, China, and other international markets. Its services span the full lease lifecycle: remarketing, rent collection, maintenance monitoring, contract compliance, delivery/redelivery, lessee credit reviews, technical modifications, default restructuring, repossession, insurance coordination, valuation, and market research.
As of the latest filing, AerCap’s portfolio comprises roughly 3,525 aircraft, engines, and helicopters, representing about 15 % of the worldwide leasing fleet. Key performance indicators include an FY 2023 EBITDA margin of ~30 % and an order backlog of approximately $30 billion, reflecting strong demand for new-generation aircraft. The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to macro-drivers such as airline profitability, global interest-rate trends, and the pace of fleet renewal driven by fuel-efficiency mandates and geopolitical shifts that affect route economics.
For analysts seeking a more granular, data-driven view of AerCap’s lease-cash-flow dynamics and valuation assumptions, the ValueRay platform provides detailed analytics that can deepen your research.
AER Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 23,295m |
| Sub-Industry | Trading Companies & Distributors |
| IPO / Inception | 2006-11-21 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | 23.6% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.44 of 5 |
AER Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 0.82% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | % |
| Payout Consistency | 17.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 7.3% |
AER Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 31.27% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.35 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 7.29 |
| Current Volume | 745.6k |
| Average Volume | 1266.2k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (3.79b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 475.8m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.18pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -21.03% (prev 74.81%; Δ -95.84pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 5.55b > Net Income 3.79b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (42.21b) to EBITDA (5.35b) ratio: 7.89 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.62 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (174.1m) change vs 12m ago -9.29% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 53.94% (prev 58.00%; Δ -4.06pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 10.88% (prev 10.60%; Δ 0.28pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.21 (EBITDA TTM 5.35b / Interest Expense TTM 2.10b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.29
| (A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 2.73b - Total Current Liabilities 4.40b) / Total Assets 71.94b |
| (B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 15.73b / Total Assets 71.94b |
| (C) 0.06 = EBIT TTM 4.63b / Avg Total Assets 72.88b |
| (D) 0.29 = Book Value of Equity 15.68b / Total Liabilities 53.79b |
| Total Rating: 1.29 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.73
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt = -1.0 |
| 2. FCF Yield -0.22% = -0.11 |
| 3. FCF Margin -1.81% = -0.68 |
| 4. Debt/Equity 2.43 = 0.12 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 7.89 = -2.50 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.58)% = 3.23 |
| 7. RoE 21.51% = 1.79 |
| 8. Rev. Trend 49.91% = 3.74 |
| 9. EPS Trend 42.68% = 2.13 |
What is the price of AER shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.03%, over one month by +9.35%, over three months by +15.52% and over the past year by +40.41%.
Is AER a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 5
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AER price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 148 | 12.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 148 | 12.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 170.1 | 28.8% |
AER Fundamental Data Overview November 17, 2025
P/E Trailing = 6.5327
P/E Forward = 9.6061
P/S = 2.7916
P/B = 1.2835
P/EG = 0.91
Beta = 1.132
Revenue TTM = 7.93b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.63b USD
EBITDA TTM = 5.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 44.03b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 44.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 42.21b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 65.51b USD (23.30b + Debt 44.03b - CCE 1.81b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.21 (Ebit TTM 4.63b / Interest Expense TTM 2.10b)
FCF Yield = -0.22% (FCF TTM -143.2m / Enterprise Value 65.51b)
FCF Margin = -1.81% (FCF TTM -143.2m / Revenue TTM 7.93b)
Net Margin = 47.78% (Net Income TTM 3.79b / Revenue TTM 7.93b)
Gross Margin = 53.94% ((Revenue TTM 7.93b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.65b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.97% (prev 32.03%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.91 (Enterprise Value 65.51b / Total Assets 71.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 485.9m / Debt 44.03b)
Taxrate = 14.02% (198.2m / 1.41b)
NOPAT = 3.99b (EBIT 4.63b * (1 - 14.02%))
Current Ratio = 0.62 (Total Current Assets 2.73b / Total Current Liabilities 4.40b)
Debt / Equity = 2.43 (Debt 44.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.15b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.89 (Net Debt 42.21b / EBITDA 5.35b)
Debt / FCF = -294.9 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 42.21b / FCF TTM -143.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 17.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.27% (Net Income 3.79b / Total Assets 71.94b)
RoE = 21.51% (Net Income TTM 3.79b / Total Stockholder Equity 17.62b)
RoCE = 7.52% (EBIT 4.63b / Capital Employed (Equity 17.62b + L.T.Debt 44.03b))
RoIC = 6.32% (NOPAT 3.99b / Invested Capital 63.02b)
WACC = 3.74% (E(23.30b)/V(67.32b) * Re(9.01%) + D(44.03b)/V(67.32b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 9.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.07%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -143.2m)
EPS Correlation: 42.68 | EPS CAGR: 25.52% | SUE: 2.92 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 49.91 | Revenue CAGR: 1.88% | SUE: -1.31 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for AER Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle