(AGI) Alamos Gold - Overview
Stock: Gold, Mining
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.34% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.29% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 89.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 11.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 60.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.23% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.44 |
| Alpha | 72.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.343 |
| Beta Downside | 0.037 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 23.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.46 |
Description: AGI Alamos Gold January 03, 2026
Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE: AGI) is a mid-tier gold producer with operating mines in Canada (Mulatos), Mexico (El Chanate), and the United States (Young-Davidson). The firm’s core business is the extraction and sale of gold, complemented by ongoing exploration to extend mine life and discover new deposits. Founded in 2003 and headquartered in Toronto, the company is listed under the GICS sub-industry “Gold.”
In 2023 Alamos generated roughly 400,000 ounces of gold, reporting an all-in sustaining cash cost of about $950 per ounce and a net cash position near $250 million, giving it a modest balance-sheet cushion amid volatile commodity prices. The company’s current mine life extends to 2029 for its flagship Young-Davidson operation, with expansion plans that could add up to 100,000 ounces annually if the proposed underground development proceeds on schedule.
Key drivers of Alamos’ performance include the global gold price (which is highly sensitive to real-interest-rate differentials and inflation expectations), the strength of the U.S. dollar, and the cost structure of its mines relative to peers. A sustained high-gold price environment, combined with disciplined cost control, typically translates into higher free cash flow and the ability to fund growth without dilutive financing.
For a deeper quantitative view, you may want to explore ValueRay’s detailed model of AGI’s fundamentals and upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 535.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.07 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 26.27% < 20% (prev 19.05%; Δ 7.22% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 730.9m > Net Income 535.4m |
| Net Debt (-187.0m) to EBITDA (1.03b): -0.18 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (422.8m) vs 12m ago 1.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.38% > 18% (prev 0.42%; Δ 4996 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.47% > 50% (prev 23.16%; Δ 5.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 289.4 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.03b / Interest Expense TTM 2.80m) |
Altman Z'' 3.46
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.01b - Total Current Liabilities 587.9m) / Total Assets 5.98b |
| B: -0.03 (Retained Earnings -189.7m / Total Assets 5.98b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 809.5m / Avg Total Assets 5.64b) |
| D: 2.03 (Book Value of Equity 3.95b / Total Liabilities 1.94b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.46 = A |
Beneish M -3.37
| DSRI: 0.68 (Receivables 31.2m/34.8m, Revenue 1.60b/1.23b) |
| GMI: 0.82 (GM 50.38% / 41.51%) |
| AQI: 0.81 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.31 (Revenue 1.60b / 1.23b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 535.4m - CFO 730.9m) / TA 5.98b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.37 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AGI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.86%, over one month by -1.06%, over three months by +32.06% and over the past year by +81.15%.
Is AGI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 51 | 27% |
| Analysts Target Price | 51 | 27% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 63.1 | 57.1% |
AGI Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.835
P/S = 9.8274
P/B = 4.2079
P/EG = -2.5
Revenue TTM = 1.60b USD
EBIT TTM = 809.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.03b USD
Long Term Debt = 250.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 275.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -187.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.58b USD (15.82b + Debt 275.6m - CCE 508.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 289.4 (Ebit TTM 809.5m / Interest Expense TTM 2.80m)
EV/FCF = 68.59x (Enterprise Value 15.58b / FCF TTM 227.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.46% (FCF TTM 227.2m / Enterprise Value 15.58b)
FCF Margin = 14.16% (FCF TTM 227.2m / Revenue TTM 1.60b)
Net Margin = 33.38% (Net Income TTM 535.4m / Revenue TTM 1.60b)
Gross Margin = 50.38% ((Revenue TTM 1.60b - Cost of Revenue TTM 796.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 56.41% (prev 54.20%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.61 (Enterprise Value 15.58b / Total Assets 5.98b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.11% (Interest Expense 296.7k / Debt 275.6m)
Taxrate = 25.63% (94.1m / 367.4m)
NOPAT = 602.0m (EBIT 809.5m * (1 - 25.63%))
Current Ratio = 1.72 (Total Current Assets 1.01b / Total Current Liabilities 587.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.07 (Debt 275.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.18 (Net Debt -187.0m / EBITDA 1.03b)
Debt / FCF = -0.82 (Net Debt -187.0m / FCF TTM 227.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.50% (Net Income 535.4m / Total Assets 5.98b)
RoE = 14.31% (Net Income TTM 535.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.74b)
RoCE = 20.28% (EBIT 809.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.74b + L.T.Debt 250.0m))
RoIC = 15.08% (NOPAT 602.0m / Invested Capital 3.99b)
WACC = 7.06% (E(15.82b)/V(16.09b) * Re(7.18%) + D(275.6m)/V(16.09b) * Rd(0.11%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 3.20%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.30% ; FCFF base≈218.3m ; Y1≈267.1m ; Y5≈446.5m
Fair Price DCF = 22.64 (EV 9.32b - Net Debt -187.0m = Equity 9.51b / Shares 419.8m; r=7.06% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.92% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 54.80 | EPS CAGR: -33.83% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.78 | Revenue CAGR: 24.16% | SUE: -1.28 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=-0.057 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.57 | Chg30d=+0.050 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+82.4% | Growth Revenue=+50.0%