(AGM) Federal Agricultural - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US3131483063
Stock: Loans, Securities, Guarantees, Servicing, Funding
Total Rating 19
Risk 82
Buy Signal -1.15
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.19% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 9.05% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 14.26% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 35.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 29.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.00% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.44 |
| Alpha | -24.60 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.704 |
| Beta Downside | 0.613 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.07% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.43 |
Description: AGM Federal Agricultural January 15, 2026
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (AGM) operates a secondary market for U.S. agricultural and rural infrastructure loans, structuring its activities across seven segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. The firm purchases and retains eligible loans and securities, guarantees principal and interest on loan-backed securities, services the underlying loans, and provides long-term standby purchase commitments for designated assets.
Key metrics that investors watch include AGM’s loan portfolio size-approximately $30 billion as of the latest quarter-and its net interest margin, which has hovered around 2.2% despite a rising Fed funds rate environment. The company’s performance is also sensitive to USDA farm loan demand, rural broadband expansion incentives, and renewable-energy tax credit extensions, all of which drive loan origination volumes in its core segments.
For a deeper dive into AGM’s valuation dynamics and how its exposure to interest-rate risk compares to peers, consider exploring the detailed analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 216.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -472.2% < 20% (prev 194.4%; Δ -666.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 344.2m > Net Income 216.0m |
| Current Ratio: 0.27 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (11.0m) vs 12m ago 0.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 23.64% > 18% (prev 0.26%; Δ 2337 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.04% > 50% (prev 4.27%; Δ 0.78% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.03 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 263.6m / Interest Expense TTM 1.21b) |
Altman Z'' -1.35
| A: -0.23 (Total Current Assets 2.85b - Total Current Liabilities 10.47b) / Total Assets 33.38b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.04b / Total Assets 33.38b) |
| C: 0.00 (EBIT TTM 40.3m / Avg Total Assets 32.00b) |
| D: 0.03 (Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 31.69b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.35 = CCC |
What is the price of AGM shares?
As of January 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 169.30 with a total of 156,520 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.12%, over one month by -4.36%, over three months by +9.20% and over the past year by -12.35%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.12%, over one month by -4.36%, over three months by +9.20% and over the past year by -12.35%.
Is AGM a buy, sell or hold?
Federal Agricultural has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 226.7 | 33.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 226.7 | 33.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 187.8 | 10.9% |
AGM Fundamental Data Overview January 29, 2026
P/E Trailing = 9.8513
P/E Forward = 8.6655
P/S = 4.9883
P/B = 1.599
P/EG = 1.605
Revenue TTM = 1.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 40.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 263.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 21.14b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.15b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 31.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 30.40b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 32.27b USD (1.89b + Debt 31.29b - CCE 901.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.03 (Ebit TTM 40.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.21b)
EV/FCF = 93.76x (Enterprise Value 32.27b / FCF TTM 344.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.07% (FCF TTM 344.2m / Enterprise Value 32.27b)
FCF Margin = 21.32% (FCF TTM 344.2m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Net Margin = 13.38% (Net Income TTM 216.0m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Gross Margin = 23.64% ((Revenue TTM 1.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.93% (prev 23.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 32.27b / Total Assets 33.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.01% (Interest Expense 316.9m / Debt 31.29b)
Taxrate = 17.52% (11.7m / 66.7m)
NOPAT = 33.2m (EBIT 40.3m * (1 - 17.52%))
Current Ratio = 0.27 (Total Current Assets 2.85b / Total Current Liabilities 10.47b)
Debt / Equity = 18.54 (Debt 31.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.69b)
Debt / EBITDA = 115.3 (Net Debt 30.40b / EBITDA 263.6m)
Debt / FCF = 88.33 (Net Debt 30.40b / FCF TTM 344.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.56b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.68% (Net Income 216.0m / Total Assets 33.38b)
RoE = 13.83% (Net Income TTM 216.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.56b)
RoCE = 0.18% (EBIT 40.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.56b + L.T.Debt 21.14b))
RoIC = 0.11% (NOPAT 33.2m / Invested Capital 31.49b)
WACC = 1.27% (E(1.89b)/V(33.17b) * Re(8.51%) + D(31.29b)/V(33.17b) * Rd(1.01%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.57% ; FCFF base≈235.7m ; Y1≈219.0m ; Y5≈200.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 6.03b - Net Debt 30.40b = -24.38b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -15.10 | EPS CAGR: -40.62% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 67.27 | Revenue CAGR: 41.62% | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=19.25 | Chg30d=-0.057 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+9.5% | Growth Revenue=+10.0%
P/E Forward = 8.6655
P/S = 4.9883
P/B = 1.599
P/EG = 1.605
Revenue TTM = 1.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 40.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 263.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 21.14b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 10.15b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 31.29b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 30.40b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 32.27b USD (1.89b + Debt 31.29b - CCE 901.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.03 (Ebit TTM 40.3m / Interest Expense TTM 1.21b)
EV/FCF = 93.76x (Enterprise Value 32.27b / FCF TTM 344.2m)
FCF Yield = 1.07% (FCF TTM 344.2m / Enterprise Value 32.27b)
FCF Margin = 21.32% (FCF TTM 344.2m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Net Margin = 13.38% (Net Income TTM 216.0m / Revenue TTM 1.61b)
Gross Margin = 23.64% ((Revenue TTM 1.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.23b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.93% (prev 23.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 32.27b / Total Assets 33.38b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.01% (Interest Expense 316.9m / Debt 31.29b)
Taxrate = 17.52% (11.7m / 66.7m)
NOPAT = 33.2m (EBIT 40.3m * (1 - 17.52%))
Current Ratio = 0.27 (Total Current Assets 2.85b / Total Current Liabilities 10.47b)
Debt / Equity = 18.54 (Debt 31.29b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.69b)
Debt / EBITDA = 115.3 (Net Debt 30.40b / EBITDA 263.6m)
Debt / FCF = 88.33 (Net Debt 30.40b / FCF TTM 344.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.56b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.68% (Net Income 216.0m / Total Assets 33.38b)
RoE = 13.83% (Net Income TTM 216.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.56b)
RoCE = 0.18% (EBIT 40.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.56b + L.T.Debt 21.14b))
RoIC = 0.11% (NOPAT 33.2m / Invested Capital 31.49b)
WACC = 1.27% (E(1.89b)/V(33.17b) * Re(8.51%) + D(31.29b)/V(33.17b) * Rd(1.01%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.51% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.57% ; FCFF base≈235.7m ; Y1≈219.0m ; Y5≈200.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 6.03b - Net Debt 30.40b = -24.38b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -15.10 | EPS CAGR: -40.62% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 67.27 | Revenue CAGR: 41.62% | SUE: 0.80 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=19.25 | Chg30d=-0.057 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+9.5% | Growth Revenue=+10.0%