AGM Stock Analysis: Federal Agricultural | NYSE
Credit Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.390m USD | 12M Return: 42.1% | US3131483063 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.4M
EPS Trend: 89.5%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 45.6%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: AGM) operates as a secondary market provider for loans to U.S. borrowers, structuring its business across seven reportable segments: Farm & Ranch, Corporate AgFinance, Power & Utilities, Broadband Infrastructure, Renewable Energy, Funding, and Investments. Its core activities include purchasing and retaining eligible loans and securities, guaranteeing principal and interest payments on securities backed by pools of eligible loans, servicing loans, and issuing long-term standby purchase commitments. The company serves a diverse rural credit ecosystem, spanning agricultural operations, agribusinesses, rural electric cooperatives, broadband and data center infrastructure, and renewable energy projects, while separately managing its funding activities and an investment portfolio held for liquidity purposes. Incorporated in 1987 and headquartered in Washington, D.C., AGM is classified under the Financials sector within the Commercial & Residential Mortgage Finance sub-industry per the GICS framework.
- Net interest margin expansion driven by loan portfolio growth
- Farm sector credit quality weakens amid declining commodity prices
- Renewable energy and broadband infrastructure loan originations accelerate
| Net Income: 220.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 682.0% < 20% (prev -476.9%; Δ 1.16k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 310.1m > Net Income 220.9m |
| Net Debt (14.2b) to EBITDA (1.40b): 10.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.85 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago 17.77% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 33.71% > 18% (prev 23.19%; Δ 10.53% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.88% > 50% (prev 4.86%; Δ -0.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.43b / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b) |
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 20.8b - Total Current Liabilities 11.3b) / Total Assets 39.3b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 1.12b / Total Assets 39.3b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.43b / Avg Total Assets 36.1b) |
| D: 0.05 (Book Value of Equity 1.85b / Total Liabilities 37.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.01 = BBB |
As of August 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 236.92 with a total of 69,452 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +7.54%, over one month by +17.95%, over three months by +33.61% and over the past year by +42.07%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 226.90 (which is 4.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Federal Agricultural has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AGM.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 219.7 | -7.3% |
P/E Trailing = 12.3141
P/E Forward = 10.8225
P/S = 6.2029
P/B = 1.9173
P/EG = 0.9838
Revenue TTM = 1.40b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.43b USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.40b USD
Long Term Debt = 21.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 11.3b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 34.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 14.2b USD (calculated: Debt 34.7b - CCE 20.5b)
Enterprise Value = 16.6b USD (2.39b + Debt 34.7b - CCE 20.5b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.24 (Ebit TTM 1.43b / Interest Expense TTM 1.15b)
EV/FCF = 53.61x (Enterprise Value 16.6b / FCF TTM 310.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.87% (FCF TTM 310.1m / Enterprise Value 16.6b)
FCF Margin = 22.11% (FCF TTM 310.1m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Net Margin = 15.75% (Net Income TTM 220.9m / Revenue TTM 1.40b)
Gross Margin = 33.71% ((Revenue TTM 1.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 929.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 24.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.42 (Enterprise Value 16.6b / Total Assets 39.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.32% (Interest Expense 1.15b / Debt 34.7b)
Taxrate = 18.35% (51.5m / 280.4m)
NOPAT = 1.17b (EBIT 1.43b * (1 - 18.35%))
Current Ratio = 1.85 (Total Current Assets 20.8b / Total Current Liabilities 11.3b)
Debt / Equity = 18.71 (Debt 34.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.17 (Net Debt 14.2b / EBITDA 1.40b)
Debt / FCF = 45.90 (Net Debt 14.2b / FCF TTM 310.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.61% (Net Income 220.9m / Total Assets 39.3b)
RoE = 12.66% (Net Income TTM 220.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.74b)
RoCE = 6.05% (EBIT 1.43b / Capital Employed (Equity 1.74b + L.T.Debt 21.9b))
RoIC = 2.98% (NOPAT 1.17b / Invested Capital 39.2b)
WACC = 3.12% (E(2.39b)/V(37.1b) * Re(9.14%) + D(34.7b)/V(37.1b) * Rd(3.32%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 9.14% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 79.93 | Cagr: 7.51%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈276.3m ; Y1≈316.7m ; Y5≈466.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.01b - Net Debt 14.2b = -7.22b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 89.54 | EPS CAGR: 5.65% | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 45.57 | Revenue CAGR: 6.19% | SUE: 0.91 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.89 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=19.52 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+17.2% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=21.35 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+9.4% | GrowthRev=+12.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +29% (up=3, down=1)