(AGO) Assured Guaranty - Overview
Stock: Financial Guaranty, Insurance, Reinsurance, Public Finance, Structured Finance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.59% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.92% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 11.50% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 17.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 22.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.56% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.30 |
| Alpha | -15.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.587 |
| Beta Downside | 0.687 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.94% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.55 |
Description: AGO Assured Guaranty January 10, 2026
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE: AGO) is a Bermuda-based insurer that supplies credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and abroad, operating through two primary segments: Insurance and Asset Management.
The Insurance segment writes financial-guaranty policies that shield debt holders from payment defaults, and it also offers specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to its structured-finance exposures. The Asset Management segment provides investment-advisory services, primarily focused on managing the company’s own portfolio of insured assets.
AGO’s coverage spans U.S. public-finance obligations-including general-obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher-education, infrastructure, housing-revenue, and renewable-energy bonds-as well as comparable non-U.S. public-finance and structured-finance instruments such as sovereign, sub-sovereign, regulated-utility, and pooled infrastructure bonds, RMBS, consumer-receivable securities, and aircraft-residual-value insurance.
Key recent metrics: 2023 net income was approximately $150 million with a combined ratio of 84%, reflecting strong underwriting discipline; the company’s credit-rating agencies upgraded its outlook in early 2024, citing a diversified exposure base and low loss ratios. The sector’s performance is tightly linked to municipal-bond issuance volumes (which rose 6% YoY in 2023) and the prevailing interest-rate environment, as higher rates increase demand for credit enhancement on longer-dated bonds.
For a deeper, data-driven analysis of AGO’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the ValueRay platform useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 402.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.54 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 811.3% < 20% (prev 792.3%; Δ 18.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 266.0m > Net Income 402.0m |
| Net Debt (1.54b) to EBITDA (617.0m): 2.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 28.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.4m) vs 12m ago -7.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 90.78% > 18% (prev 0.77%; Δ 9000 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.82% > 50% (prev 7.76%; Δ 0.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.38 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 617.0m / Interest Expense TTM 90.0m) |
Altman Z'' 6.87
| A: 0.64 (Total Current Assets 8.02b - Total Current Liabilities 278.0m) / Total Assets 12.10b |
| B: 0.48 (Retained Earnings 5.84b / Total Assets 12.10b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 304.0m / Avg Total Assets 12.20b) |
| D: 0.89 (Book Value of Equity 5.66b / Total Liabilities 6.36b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.87 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.09
| DSRI: 1.06 (Receivables 2.04b/1.93b, Revenue 954.0m/954.0m) |
| GMI: 0.85 (GM 90.78% / 77.25%) |
| AQI: 1.02 (AQ_t 0.33 / AQ_t-1 0.32) |
| SGI: 1.0 (Revenue 954.0m / 954.0m) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 402.0m - CFO 266.0m) / TA 12.10b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AGO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.45%, over one month by -2.92%, over three months by +1.98% and over the past year by -2.69%.
Is AGO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 107 | 21.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 107 | 21.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 98.3 | 12% |
AGO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.8343
P/S = 4.4328
P/B = 0.6941
P/EG = 2.52
Revenue TTM = 954.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 304.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 617.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.70b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 13.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 1.70b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.54b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.25b USD (4.04b + Debt 1.70b - CCE 2.49b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.38 (Ebit TTM 304.0m / Interest Expense TTM 90.0m)
EV/FCF = 12.21x (Enterprise Value 3.25b / FCF TTM 266.0m)
FCF Yield = 8.19% (FCF TTM 266.0m / Enterprise Value 3.25b)
FCF Margin = 27.88% (FCF TTM 266.0m / Revenue TTM 954.0m)
Net Margin = 42.14% (Net Income TTM 402.0m / Revenue TTM 954.0m)
Gross Margin = 90.78% ((Revenue TTM 954.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 88.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 88.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.27 (Enterprise Value 3.25b / Total Assets 12.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.29% (Interest Expense 22.0m / Debt 1.70b)
Taxrate = 15.56% (21.0m / 135.0m)
NOPAT = 256.7m (EBIT 304.0m * (1 - 15.56%))
Current Ratio = 28.84 (Total Current Assets 8.02b / Total Current Liabilities 278.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.30 (Debt 1.70b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.66b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (Net Debt 1.54b / EBITDA 617.0m)
Debt / FCF = 5.81 (Net Debt 1.54b / FCF TTM 266.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.59b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.30% (Net Income 402.0m / Total Assets 12.10b)
RoE = 7.19% (Net Income TTM 402.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 5.59b)
RoCE = 4.17% (EBIT 304.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 5.59b + L.T.Debt 1.70b))
RoIC = 3.52% (NOPAT 256.7m / Invested Capital 7.29b)
WACC = 6.01% (E(4.04b)/V(5.74b) * Re(8.08%) + D(1.70b)/V(5.74b) * Rd(1.29%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 8.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -7.95%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.23% ; FCFF base≈241.2m ; Y1≈158.3m ; Y5≈72.2m
Fair Price DCF = 14.79 (EV 2.23b - Net Debt 1.54b = Equity 682.0m / Shares 46.1m; r=6.01% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 17.61 | EPS CAGR: -44.15% | SUE: -1.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 32.20 | Revenue CAGR: 2.11% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.69 | Chg30d=-0.016 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.25 | Chg30d=-0.047 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-12.9% | Growth Revenue=-7.6%