(AGRO) Adecoagro - Overview
Stock: Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Rice, Sugar, Ethanol
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 4.26% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.99% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 3.85% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 3.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.99% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.14 |
| Alpha | -14.13 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.228 |
| Beta Downside | 0.042 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 37.93% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.19 |
Description: AGRO Adecoagro January 25, 2026
Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) is a Luxembourg-registered agribusiness that operates across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay. It runs two primary segments: (1) Farming, which cultivates soybeans, corn, wheat, peanuts, sunflower, cotton, and rice, and (2) Sugar, Ethanol, and Energy, which processes sugarcane into sugar, ethanol, biomethane, and electricity, while also generating biogas-derived power from dairy effluents and selling carbon credits.
Recent operational data show that in FY 2024 the company harvested roughly 2.1 million t of soybeans and 1.3 million t of corn, while sugarcane output reached 1.1 million t, supporting an ethanol production run of about 1.0 billion L. EBITDA for the year was US$215 million, yielding a 15 % margin-up from 12 % in FY 2023-driven largely by higher commodity prices and improved ethanol yields.
Key macro drivers include Brazil’s 2024 ethanol blending mandate increase to 40 % of gasoline, which underpins demand for AGRO’s ethanol, and the persistent depreciation of the Argentine peso, which boosts export-priced revenue but also raises local input-cost volatility. Additionally, global dairy consumption trends remain supportive, with the company’s UHT milk and cheese lines benefitting from rising per-capita intake in Latin America.
For a deeper dive into AGRO’s valuation sensitivities, the ValueRay platform provides a transparent, data-driven model worth reviewing.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 23.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.22 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 63.13% < 20% (prev 44.08%; Δ 19.05% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 466.8m > Net Income 23.5m |
| Net Debt (1.27b) to EBITDA (340.7m): 3.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (100.1m) vs 12m ago -0.74% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.86% > 18% (prev 0.20%; Δ 2466 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 40.33% > 50% (prev 43.71%; Δ -3.38% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.60 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 340.7m / Interest Expense TTM 111.2m) |
Altman Z'' 2.40
| A: 0.24 (Total Current Assets 1.36b - Total Current Liabilities 486.1m) / Total Assets 3.65b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 525.1m / Total Assets 3.65b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 66.9m / Avg Total Assets 3.44b) |
| D: 0.21 (Book Value of Equity 464.6m / Total Liabilities 2.21b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.40 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.45
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 202.7m/208.6m, Revenue 1.39b/1.41b) |
| GMI: 0.82 (GM 24.86% / 20.41%) |
| AQI: 0.80 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 1.39b / 1.41b) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI 23.5m - CFO 466.8m) / TA 3.65b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AGRO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.27%, over one month by +11.01%, over three months by +6.33% and over the past year by -8.35%.
Is AGRO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the AGRO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 10.3 | 19.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 10.3 | 19.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9 | 5.3% |
AGRO Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.8818
P/S = 0.9043
P/B = 0.9074
P/EG = 0.06
Revenue TTM = 1.39b USD
EBIT TTM = 66.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 340.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.05b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 233.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.61b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.27b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.49b USD (1.25b + Debt 1.61b - CCE 365.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.60 (Ebit TTM 66.9m / Interest Expense TTM 111.2m)
EV/FCF = 9.55x (Enterprise Value 2.49b / FCF TTM 261.0m)
FCF Yield = 10.47% (FCF TTM 261.0m / Enterprise Value 2.49b)
FCF Margin = 18.83% (FCF TTM 261.0m / Revenue TTM 1.39b)
Net Margin = 1.69% (Net Income TTM 23.5m / Revenue TTM 1.39b)
Gross Margin = 24.86% ((Revenue TTM 1.39b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.04b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 35.11% (prev 19.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.68 (Enterprise Value 2.49b / Total Assets 3.65b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.10% (Interest Expense 49.8m / Debt 1.61b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 52.9m (EBIT 66.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.80 (Total Current Assets 1.36b / Total Current Liabilities 486.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.17 (Debt 1.61b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.37b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.71 (Net Debt 1.27b / EBITDA 340.7m)
Debt / FCF = 4.85 (Net Debt 1.27b / FCF TTM 261.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.38b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.68% (Net Income 23.5m / Total Assets 3.65b)
RoE = 1.70% (Net Income TTM 23.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.38b)
RoCE = 2.74% (EBIT 66.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.38b + L.T.Debt 1.05b))
RoIC = 2.26% (NOPAT 52.9m / Invested Capital 2.34b)
WACC = 4.34% (E(1.25b)/V(2.86b) * Re(6.75%) + D(1.61b)/V(2.86b) * Rd(3.10%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -3.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.53% ; FCFF base≈290.6m ; Y1≈296.4m ; Y5≈326.5m
Fair Price DCF = 59.74 (EV 9.72b - Net Debt 1.27b = Equity 8.45b / Shares 141.5m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 1.81% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -58.33 | EPS CAGR: -33.51% | SUE: -0.63 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 22.68 | Revenue CAGR: -2.47% | SUE: -2.71 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.18 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.087 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+527.4% | Growth Revenue=+6.0%