(AL) Air Lease - Overview
Stock: Aircraft Leasing, Fleet Management, Aircraft Sales
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.54% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.21% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.25% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 26.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 2.02% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.38% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.21 |
| Alpha | 28.37 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.999 |
| Beta Downside | 1.413 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 24.57% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.67 |
Description: AL Air Lease January 08, 2026
Air Lease Corporation (NYSE: AL) is a global aircraft leasing firm that purchases commercial jets and leases them to airlines across Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and Canada. It also monetizes assets by selling aircraft to third parties-including other lessors, financial institutions, and airlines-and offers fleet-management services to owners of aircraft portfolios. As of June 30 2025 the company owned 495 aircraft, managed an additional 53 on behalf of investors, and had 241 jets on order from manufacturers, reflecting a sizable growth pipeline since its 2010 incorporation in Los Angeles.
Key industry metrics that shape AL’s outlook include: (1) the average lease-rate premium for new-generation narrow-body jets, which has hovered around $350,000 per aircraft per month in 2024, providing a strong cash-flow tail; (2) the company’s leverage ratio of roughly 3.5× EBITDA, a level that is modest for the capital-intensive leasing sector but sensitive to rising interest rates; and (3) the secular demand driver of airline fleet renewal, with global passenger traffic projected to grow 4-5 % annually through 2028, underpinning long-term lease-rate growth. A material risk is the potential slowdown in airline earnings due to higher fuel prices or economic contraction, which could pressure lease-rate negotiations and increase default risk.
For a deeper quantitative dive into AL’s valuation dynamics, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed model, which breaks out cash-flow assumptions and sensitivity to interest-rate shifts.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 1.02b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -18.14% < 20% (prev -26.89%; Δ 8.75% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 1.75b > Net Income 1.02b |
| Net Debt (19.74b) to EBITDA (2.55b): 7.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (112.3m) vs 12m ago 0.48% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.54% > 18% (prev 0.32%; Δ 2922 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.87% > 50% (prev 8.51%; Δ 0.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 24.70 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.55b / Interest Expense TTM 54.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.86
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 2.09b - Total Current Liabilities 2.62b) / Total Assets 33.39b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 4.95b / Total Assets 33.39b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 1.34b / Avg Total Assets 32.77b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 4.95b / Total Liabilities 25.05b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.86 = B |
Beneish M -2.63
| DSRI: 1.95 (Receivables 857.4m/414.6m, Revenue 2.91b/2.74b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 29.54% / 31.81%) |
| AQI: 0.20 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 2.91b / 2.74b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 1.02b - CFO 1.75b) / TA 33.39b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.63 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.12%, over one month by +0.51%, over three months by +1.60% and over the past year by +41.77%.
Is AL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 65 | 0.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 65 | 0.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 76.1 | 18% |
AL Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.3457
P/S = 2.4807
P/B = 0.8647
P/EG = 0.91
Revenue TTM = 2.91b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.34b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.55b USD
Long Term Debt = 18.69b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.25b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 20.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 19.74b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 26.96b USD (7.21b + Debt 20.19b - CCE 452.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 24.70 (Ebit TTM 1.34b / Interest Expense TTM 54.1m)
EV/FCF = -14.82x (Enterprise Value 26.96b / FCF TTM -1.82b)
FCF Yield = -6.75% (FCF TTM -1.82b / Enterprise Value 26.96b)
FCF Margin = -62.56% (FCF TTM -1.82b / Revenue TTM 2.91b)
Net Margin = 35.09% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 2.91b)
Gross Margin = 29.54% ((Revenue TTM 2.91b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.05b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.40% (prev 29.84%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.81 (Enterprise Value 26.96b / Total Assets 33.39b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.06% (Interest Expense 12.9m / Debt 20.19b)
Taxrate = 20.82% (38.5m / 185.0m)
NOPAT = 1.06b (EBIT 1.34b * (1 - 20.82%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 2.09b / Total Current Liabilities 2.62b)
Debt / Equity = 2.42 (Debt 20.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.75 (Net Debt 19.74b / EBITDA 2.55b)
Debt / FCF = -10.85 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 19.74b / FCF TTM -1.82b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.99b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.11% (Net Income 1.02b / Total Assets 33.39b)
RoE = 12.77% (Net Income TTM 1.02b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.99b)
RoCE = 5.01% (EBIT 1.34b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.99b + L.T.Debt 18.69b))
RoIC = 3.76% (NOPAT 1.06b / Invested Capital 28.14b)
WACC = 2.56% (E(7.21b)/V(27.41b) * Re(9.60%) + D(20.19b)/V(27.41b) * Rd(0.06%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.42%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -1.82b)
EPS Correlation: -47.38 | EPS CAGR: -58.45% | SUE: -3.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.18 | Revenue CAGR: 5.32% | SUE: -0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.35 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+26.0% | Growth Revenue=+6.6%