ALK Stock Analysis: Alaska Air | NYSE
Airlines | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.835m USD | 12M Return: -31.6% | US0116591092 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 138M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE: ALK) is a U.S.-based airline holding company headquartered in Seattle, Washington, founded in 1932. The company operates through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional, providing scheduled passenger and cargo air transportation primarily using Boeing jet aircraft, along with services offered through Horizon and other third-party regional carriers.
The company serves a broad network spanning the United States, Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Belize, the Bahamas, the South Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, and Asia. Its recent acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines notably expanded its presence in the Pacific region and broadened its route map across domestic and international markets.
As a mid-cap stock in the Industrials sector under the GICS Passenger Airlines sub-industry, Alaska Air Group competes in a capital-intensive industry characterized by high fixed costs, cyclical demand tied to economic conditions, and sensitivity to fuel prices. The companys reliance on Boeing aircraft ties its fleet strategy and operating economics closely to the aerospace manufacturers production and delivery performance.
- Hawaiian Airlines merger synergies drive margin expansion
- Boeing 737 delivery delays limit capacity growth
- Jet fuel price swings pressure operating margins
| Net Income: -395.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -26.81% < 20% (prev -22.58%; Δ -4.24% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 940.0m > Net Income -395.0m |
| Net Debt (6.45b) to EBITDA (582.0m): 11.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.46 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (111.6m) vs 12m ago -7.91% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 71.55% > 18% (prev 41.31%; Δ 30.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 74.58% > 50% (prev 70.66%; Δ 3.92% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.52 > 6 (EBIT TTM -244.0m / Interest Expense TTM 467.0m) |
| A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.44b - Total Current Liabilities 7.54b) / Total Assets 21.0b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 4.61b / Total Assets 21.0b) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -244.0m / Avg Total Assets 20.5b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 3.53b / Total Liabilities 17.5b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.43 = B |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 656.0m/586.0m, Revenue 15.3b/14.1b) |
| GMI: 0.58 (GM 41.31% / 71.55%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.08 (Revenue 15.3b / 14.1b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -395.0m - CFO 940.0m) / TA 21.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.36 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 22, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.54 with a total of 11,456,977 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.13%, over one month by -19.95%, over three months by -26.22% and over the past year by -31.56%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.50 (which is 6.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Alaska Air has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALK.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 55.1 | 64.2% |
P/E Forward = 7.3638
P/S = 0.2597
P/B = 1.2073
P/EG = 1.1978
Revenue TTM = 15.3b USD
EBIT TTM = -244.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 582.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.83b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 890.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.68b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.38b
Net Debt = 6.45b USD (calculated: Debt 8.68b - CCE 2.23b)
Enterprise Value = 10.3b USD (3.83b + Debt 8.68b - CCE 2.23b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.52 (Ebit TTM -244.0m / Interest Expense TTM 467.0m)
EV/FCF = -15.82x (Enterprise Value 10.3b / FCF TTM -650.0m)
FCF Yield = -6.32% (FCF TTM -650.0m / Enterprise Value 10.3b)
FCF Margin = -4.25% (FCF TTM -650.0m / Revenue TTM 15.3b)
Net Margin = -2.58% (Net Income TTM -395.0m / Revenue TTM 15.3b)
Gross Margin = 71.55% ((Revenue TTM 15.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.36b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.73% (prev 89.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.49 (Enterprise Value 10.3b / Total Assets 21.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.38% (Interest Expense 467.0m / Debt 8.68b)
Taxrate = 31.51% (46.0m / 146.0m)
NOPAT = -167.1m (EBIT -244.0m * (1 - 31.51%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.46 (Total Current Assets 3.44b / Total Current Liabilities 7.54b)
Debt / Equity = 2.46 (Debt 8.68b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.53b)
Debt / EBITDA = 11.08 (Net Debt 6.45b / EBITDA 582.0m)
Debt / FCF = -9.92 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.45b / FCF TTM -650.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.76b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.92% (Net Income -395.0m / Total Assets 21.0b)
RoE = -10.50% (Net Income TTM -395.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.76b)
RoCE = -2.84% (EBIT -244.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.76b + L.T.Debt 4.83b))
RoIC = -1.23% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -167.1m / Invested Capital 13.6b)
WACC = 6.13% (E(3.83b)/V(12.5b) * Re(11.67%) + D(8.68b)/V(12.5b) * Rd(5.38%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.67% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.62 | Cagr: -6.01%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -650.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.24 | Revenue CAGR: 17.52% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=-2.37 | Chg30d=-70.06% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-3.47 | Chg30d=-74.75% | Revisions=-83% | GrowthEPS=-242.3% | GrowthRev=+10.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.38 | Chg30d=-27.37% | Revisions=-81% | GrowthEPS=+197.2% | GrowthRev=+9.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -92% (up=0, down=34)