(ALK) Alaska Air - Overview

Sector: Industrials | Industry: Airlines | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 4.116m USD | Total Return: -32.4% in 12m

Passenger Flights, Air Cargo, Regional Travel, Charter Services
Total Rating 23
Safety 52
Buy Signal -0.71
Airlines
Industry Rotation: -16.1
Market Cap: 4.12B
Avg Turnover: 129M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility49.2%
VaR 5th Pctl7.94%
VaR vs Median-2.16%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.66
Rel. Str. IBD6.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group2.6
Character TTM
Beta1.597
Beta Downside2.256
Hurst Exponent0.673
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD55.37%
CAGR/Max DD-0.13
CAGR/Mean DD-0.25
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of ALK over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-03": -3.51, "2021-06": -0.3, "2021-09": 1.47, "2021-12": 0.24, "2022-03": -1.33, "2022-06": 2.19, "2022-09": 2.53, "2022-12": 0.92, "2023-03": -0.62, "2023-06": 3, "2023-09": 1.83, "2023-12": 0.3, "2024-03": -0.92, "2024-06": 2.55, "2024-09": 2.25, "2024-12": 0.97, "2025-03": -0.77, "2025-06": 1.42, "2025-09": 1.05, "2025-12": 0.43, "2026-03": -1.68,
EPS CAGR: -60.43%
EPS Trend: -38.5%
Last SUE: -0.42
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of ALK over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-03: 797, 2021-06: 1527, 2021-09: 1953, 2021-12: 1899, 2022-03: 1681, 2022-06: 2658, 2022-09: 2828, 2022-12: 2479, 2023-03: 2196, 2023-06: 2838, 2023-09: 2839, 2023-12: 2553, 2024-03: 2232, 2024-06: 2897, 2024-09: 3072, 2024-12: 3534, 2025-03: 3137, 2025-06: 3704, 2025-09: 3766, 2025-12: 3632, 2026-03: 3300,
Rev. CAGR: 5.94%
Rev. Trend: 75.2%
Last SUE: 0.21
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

P/E ratio 75.4

High Debt/EBITDA (5.6) with thin interest coverage (1.2)

High Debt while negative Cash Flow

Altman Z'' -0.13 < 1.0 - financial distress zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Description: ALK Alaska Air

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is a Seattle-based airline holding company operating through three primary segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company provides scheduled passenger and cargo transportation across an extensive network covering the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean.

The business model relies on a hub-and-spoke system, utilizing a fleet primarily composed of Boeing jet aircraft for mainline operations. As a member of the Passenger Airlines sub-industry, the company’s performance is heavily influenced by cyclical factors such as jet fuel price volatility and seasonal travel demand.

Investors can further examine these industry trends and valuation metrics on ValueRay. Since its founding in 1932, the company has expanded its regional footprint through strategic acquisitions and code-sharing agreements to enhance network connectivity.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Hawaiian Airlines acquisition integration determines long-term margin and network synergy realization
  • Fuel price volatility and labor contract negotiations impact operating expense ratios
  • West Coast travel demand and tech sector corporate spending drive revenue
  • Boeing aircraft delivery delays and 737 MAX grounding risks constrain capacity
  • Expansion of premium seating and loyalty program revenue enhances unit profitability
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict) 5.0
Net Income: 73.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.20 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -28.04% < 20% (prev -23.57%; Δ -4.48% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.21b > Net Income 73.0m
Net Debt (6.22b) to EBITDA (1.12b): 5.57 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.43 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.3m) vs 12m ago -7.18% < -2%
Gross Margin: 76.89% > 18% (prev 0.24%; Δ 7.66k% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 71.80% > 50% (prev 63.78%; Δ 8.02% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.17 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.12b / Interest Expense TTM 265.0m)
Altman Z'' -0.13
A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.02b - Total Current Liabilities 7.06b) / Total Assets 20.30b
B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 4.84b / Total Assets 20.30b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Avg Total Assets 20.06b)
D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 4.66b / Total Liabilities 16.57b)
Altman-Z'' Score: -0.13 = B
Beneish M -3.44
DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 630.0m/569.0m, Revenue 14.40b/12.64b)
GMI: 0.32 (GM 76.89% / 24.25%)
AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.20)
SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 14.40b / 12.64b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 73.0m - CFO 1.21b) / TA 20.30b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.44 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of ALK shares? As of May 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 36.21 with a total of 2,808,427 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.51%, over one month by -16.84%, over three months by -30.54% and over the past year by -32.43%.
Is ALK a buy, sell or hold? Alaska Air has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALK.
  • StrongBuy: 9
  • Buy: 5
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALK price?
Analysts Target Price 57.4 58.5%
Alaska Air (ALK) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 18 May 2026
P/E Trailing = 75.3878
P/E Forward = 163.9344
P/S = 0.2858
P/B = 1.2197
P/EG = 1.1978
Revenue TTM = 14.40b USD
EBIT TTM = 311.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.83b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 710.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.67b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.02b USD (4.12b + Debt 6.67b - CCE 1.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.17 (Ebit TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 265.0m)
EV/FCF = -18.90x (Enterprise Value 9.02b / FCF TTM -477.0m)
FCF Yield = -5.29% (FCF TTM -477.0m / Enterprise Value 9.02b)
FCF Margin = -3.31% (FCF TTM -477.0m / Revenue TTM 14.40b)
Net Margin = 0.51% (Net Income TTM 73.0m / Revenue TTM 14.40b)
Gross Margin = 76.89% ((Revenue TTM 14.40b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.58% (prev 94.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.44 (Enterprise Value 9.02b / Total Assets 20.30b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.14% (Interest Expense 76.0m / Debt 6.67b)
Taxrate = 31.51% (46.0m / 146.0m)
NOPAT = 213.0m (EBIT 311.0m * (1 - 31.51%))
Current Ratio = 0.43 (Total Current Assets 3.02b / Total Current Liabilities 7.06b)
Debt / Equity = 1.79 (Debt 6.67b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.57 (Net Debt 6.22b / EBITDA 1.12b)
 Debt / FCF = -13.03 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.22b / FCF TTM -477.0m)
 Total Stockholder Equity = 3.96b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.36% (Net Income 73.0m / Total Assets 20.30b)
RoE = 1.85% (Net Income TTM 73.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.96b)
RoCE = 3.54% (EBIT 311.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.96b + L.T.Debt 4.83b))
RoIC = 2.32% (NOPAT 213.0m / Invested Capital 9.20b)
WACC = 4.91% (E(4.12b)/V(10.78b) * Re(11.60%) + D(6.67b)/V(10.78b) * Rd(1.14%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -55.56 | Cagr: -4.70%
 [DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -477.0m)
 EPS Correlation: -38.50 | EPS CAGR: -60.43% | SUE: -0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 75.23 | Revenue CAGR: 5.94% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.98 | Chg30d=-1266.53% | Revisions=-71% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=-9.56% | Revisions=-43% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.86 | Chg30d=-243.33% | Revisions=-76% | GrowthEPS=-135.1% | GrowthRev=+10.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.28 | Chg30d=-11.79% | Revisions=-53% | GrowthEPS=+831.9% | GrowthRev=+6.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -76%