(ALK) Alaska Air - Ratings and Ratios
Airline Services, Passenger Transportation, Cargo Transportation
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.6% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 64.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.53% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.41 |
| Alpha | -50.44 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.681 |
| Beta | 1.752 |
| Beta Downside | 1.762 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.63% |
| Mean DD | 25.63% |
| Median DD | 28.90% |
Description: ALK Alaska Air January 08, 2026
Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) operates three airline segments-Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and a Regional carrier-providing scheduled passenger and cargo services on Boeing jets across the United States, Canada, Mexico, and select Central American and Caribbean destinations.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year (2023) show a load factor of 84.2 % and revenue passenger miles (RPM) growth of +7 % YoY, while operating margin improved to 5.6 % after a multi-year recovery from pandemic lows. The fleet now comprises roughly 340 aircraft, with a strategic focus on fuel-efficient 737-900ER and 737-MAX models.
The airline’s outlook is tightly linked to three macro drivers: (1) jet fuel price volatility, which accounts for about 30 % of operating costs; (2) labor market tightness in the U.S. that pressures wage growth; and (3) the rebound in discretionary travel demand, especially leisure trips to Hawaii and Mexico, which historically outpaces business travel growth.
Given the sector’s ongoing consolidation and the potential for network synergies, analysts should monitor Alaska’s slot acquisitions at major hubs and its partnership extensions with on-demand travel platforms. For a deeper quantitative breakdown, you might explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 100.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.62 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -22.42% < 20% (prev -20.32%; Δ -2.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.25b > Net Income 100.0m |
| Net Debt (6.47b) to EBITDA (1.15b): 5.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.52 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (117.4m) vs 12m ago -8.98% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.66% > 18% (prev 0.24%; Δ 5942 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.59% > 50% (prev 59.36%; Δ 12.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.47 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.15b / Interest Expense TTM 103.0m) |
Altman Z'' -0.11
| A: -0.16 (Total Current Assets 3.47b - Total Current Liabilities 6.66b) / Total Assets 20.01b |
| B: 0.25 (Retained Earnings 5.01b / Total Assets 20.01b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 357.0m / Avg Total Assets 19.89b) |
| D: 0.0 (Book Value of Equity 0.0 / Total Liabilities 15.98b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.11 = B |
Beneish M
| DSRI: none (Receivables none/558.0m, Revenue 14.24b/11.73b) |
| GMI: 0.41 (GM 59.66% / 24.39%) |
| AQI: none (AQ_t none / AQ_t-1 none) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 14.24b / 11.73b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 100.0m - CFO 1.25b) / TA 20.01b) |
| Beneish M-Score: cannot calculate (missing components) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 49.85
| 1. Piotroski: 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield: -2.74% |
| 3. FCF Margin: -2.38% |
| 4. Debt/Equity: 1.61 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda: 5.62 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC: -2.71% |
| 7. RoE: 2.43% |
| 8. Revenue Trend: 79.60% |
| 9. EPS Trend: data missing |
What is the price of ALK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.82%, over one month by +3.00%, over three months by +15.68% and over the past year by -26.48%.
Is ALK a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 70.9 | 36.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 70.9 | 36.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 54.7 | 5.6% |
ALK Fundamental Data Overview January 25, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.8652
P/S = 0.4173
P/B = 1.4066
P/EG = 1.3
Revenue TTM = 14.24b USD
EBIT TTM = 357.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.15b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.49b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 744.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 6.47b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 6.47b USD (using Total Debt 6.47b, CCE unavailable)
Enterprise Value = 12.37b USD (5.90b + Debt 6.47b - (null CCE))
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.47 (Ebit TTM 357.0m / Interest Expense TTM 103.0m)
EV/FCF = -36.49x (Enterprise Value 12.37b / FCF TTM -339.0m)
FCF Yield = -2.74% (FCF TTM -339.0m / Enterprise Value 12.37b)
FCF Margin = -2.38% (FCF TTM -339.0m / Revenue TTM 14.24b)
Net Margin = 0.70% (Net Income TTM 100.0m / Revenue TTM 14.24b)
Gross Margin = 59.66% ((Revenue TTM 14.24b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.74b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 94.27% (prev 95.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.62 (Enterprise Value 12.37b / Total Assets 20.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = -1.08% (Interest Expense -70.0m / Debt 6.47b)
Taxrate = 30.0% (9.00m / 30.0m)
NOPAT = 249.9m (EBIT 357.0m * (1 - 30.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.52 (Total Current Assets 3.47b / Total Current Liabilities 6.66b)
Debt / Equity = 1.61 (Debt 6.47b / totalStockholderEquity, two quarters ago 4.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.62 (Net Debt 6.47b / EBITDA 1.15b)
Debt / FCF = -19.09 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.47b / FCF TTM -339.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.50% (Net Income 100.0m / Total Assets 20.01b)
RoE = 2.43% (Net Income TTM 100.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.12b)
RoCE = 4.15% (EBIT 357.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.12b + L.T.Debt 4.49b))
RoIC = 2.79% (NOPAT 249.9m / Invested Capital 8.96b)
WACC = 5.50% (E(5.90b)/V(12.37b) * Re(12.37%) + D(6.47b)/V(12.37b) * Rd(-1.08%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 12.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -339.0m)
Revenue Correlation: 79.60 | Revenue CAGR: 22.81% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for ALK Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle