ALK Stock Analysis: Alaska Air | NYSE
Airlines | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.949m USD | 12M Return: -10.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 155M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is a U.S.-based holding company that operates passenger airlines through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo on Boeing jet aircraft, serving domestic routes across the United States and international destinations in Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas, with its Regional segment covering shorter-haul routes primarily in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Founded in 1932 and headquartered in Seattle, Washington, the company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker ALK.
As a member of the GICS Industrials sector (Passenger Airlines sub-industry), Alaska Air Group operates within a capital-intensive industry that typically relies on a hub-and-spoke network structure. Its mainline operations are centered on Boeing narrow-body aircraft, and the Regional segment is generally operated through wholly owned regional partners that feed connecting traffic into the mainline network.
- Hawaiian Airlines integration unlocks network synergies and cost savings
- Boeing 737 delivery delays constrain Alaska fleet capacity growth
- West Coast leisure travel demand supports passenger revenue and unit economics
| Net Income: -175.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.56 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -22.06% < 20% (prev -23.81%; Δ 1.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 1.02b > Net Income -175.0m |
| Net Debt (6.27b) to EBITDA (641.0m): 9.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (112.7m) vs 12m ago -8.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 93.19% > 18% (prev 23.09%; Δ 70.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.79% > 50% (prev 67.62%; Δ 4.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.39 > 6 (EBIT TTM -172.0m / Interest Expense TTM 446.0m) |
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 3.94b - Total Current Liabilities 7.19b) / Total Assets 21.2b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 4.76b / Total Assets 21.2b) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -172.0m / Avg Total Assets 20.6b) |
| D: 0.21 (Book Value of Equity 3.67b / Total Liabilities 17.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.11 = B |
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 681.0m/737.0m, Revenue 14.8b/13.4b) |
| GMI: 0.25 (GM 23.09% / 93.19%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.10 (Revenue 14.8b / 13.4b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -175.0m - CFO 1.02b) / TA 21.2b) |
| Beneish M = -3.80 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of July 30, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 48.61 with a total of 2,500,601 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.93%, over one month by -6.39%, over three months by +22.17% and over the past year by -10.53%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 44.80 (which is 7.8% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Alaska Air has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALK.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 65.5 | 34.8% |
P/E Trailing = 92.4167
P/E Forward = 208.3333
P/S = 0.3436
P/B = 1.3577
P/EG = 1.1978
Revenue TTM = 14.8b USD
EBIT TTM = -172.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 641.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.83b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 669.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.96b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.35b
Net Debt = 6.27b USD (calculated: Debt 8.96b - CCE 2.69b)
Enterprise Value = 11.2b USD (4.95b + Debt 8.96b - CCE 2.69b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.39 (Ebit TTM -172.0m / Interest Expense TTM 446.0m)
EV/FCF = -33.09x (Enterprise Value 11.2b / FCF TTM -339.0m)
FCF Yield = -3.02% (FCF TTM -339.0m / Enterprise Value 11.2b)
FCF Margin = -2.30% (FCF TTM -339.0m / Revenue TTM 14.8b)
Net Margin = -1.19% (Net Income TTM -175.0m / Revenue TTM 14.8b)
Gross Margin = 93.19% ((Revenue TTM 14.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 89.32% (prev 93.58%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.53 (Enterprise Value 11.2b / Total Assets 21.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.98% (Interest Expense 446.0m / Debt 8.96b)
Taxrate = 31.51% (46.0m / 146.0m)
NOPAT = -117.8m (EBIT -172.0m * (1 - 31.51%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.55 (Total Current Assets 3.94b / Total Current Liabilities 7.19b)
Debt / Equity = 2.44 (Debt 8.96b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.67b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.78 (Net Debt 6.27b / EBITDA 641.0m)
Debt / FCF = -18.49 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.27b / FCF TTM -339.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.89b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.85% (Net Income -175.0m / Total Assets 21.2b)
RoE = -4.50% (Net Income TTM -175.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.89b)
RoCE = -1.97% (EBIT -172.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.89b + L.T.Debt 4.83b))
RoIC = -0.84% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -117.8m / Invested Capital 14.0b)
WACC = 6.36% (E(4.95b)/V(13.9b) * Re(11.70%) + D(8.96b)/V(13.9b) * Rd(4.98%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -91.86 | Cagr: -4.83%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -339.0m)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.55 | Revenue CAGR: 16.95% | SUE: -0.54 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=+20.98% | Revisions=+58% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.20 | Chg30d=+64.80% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=-108.3% | GrowthRev=+11.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.57 | Chg30d=+3.93% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+3326.9% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +54% (up=20, down=5)