(ALK) Alaska Air - Overview
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Airlines | Exchange: NYSE (USA) | Market Cap: 5.122m USD | Total Return: -13.7% in 12m
Avg Turnover: 121M
EPS Trend: -79.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 94.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
P/E ratio 93.8
High Debt/EBITDA (5.6) with thin interest coverage (1.2)
High Debt while negative Cash Flow
Altman Z'' -0.19 < 1.0 - financial distress zone
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) is a Seattle-based airline holding company operating through three primary segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company provides scheduled passenger and cargo transportation across an extensive network covering the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean.
The business model relies on a hub-and-spoke system, utilizing a fleet primarily composed of Boeing jet aircraft for mainline operations. As a member of the Passenger Airlines sub-industry, the company’s performance is heavily influenced by cyclical factors such as jet fuel price volatility and seasonal travel demand.
Investors can further examine these industry trends and valuation metrics on ValueRay. Since its founding in 1932, the company has expanded its regional footprint through strategic acquisitions and code-sharing agreements to enhance network connectivity.
- Hawaiian Airlines acquisition integration determines long-term margin and network synergy realization
- Fuel price volatility and labor contract negotiations impact operating expense ratios
- West Coast travel demand and tech sector corporate spending drive revenue
- Boeing aircraft delivery delays and 737 MAX grounding risks constrain capacity
- Expansion of premium seating and loyalty program revenue enhances unit profitability
| Net Income: 73.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -28.04% < 20% (prev -23.57%; Δ -4.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.21b > Net Income 73.0m |
| Net Debt (6.25b) to EBITDA (1.12b): 5.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.3m) vs 12m ago -7.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.89% > 18% (prev 24.25%; Δ 52.64% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.80% > 50% (prev 63.78%; Δ 8.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 265.0m) |
| A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.02b - Total Current Liabilities 7.06b) / Total Assets 20.3b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 4.84b / Total Assets 20.3b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Avg Total Assets 20.1b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 3.73b / Total Liabilities 16.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.19 = B |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 630.0m/569.0m, Revenue 14.4b/12.6b) |
| GMI: 0.32 (GM 24.25% / 76.89%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 14.4b / 12.6b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 73.0m - CFO 1.21b) / TA 20.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.39 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of June 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 43.91 with a total of 2,730,841 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.27%,
over one month by +18.80%,
over three months by -13.51% and
over the past year by -13.73%.
Alaska Air has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALK.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 57.6 | 31.1% |
P/E Trailing = 93.8163
P/E Forward = 175.4386
P/S = 0.3557
P/B = 1.3078
P/EG = 1.1978
Revenue TTM = 14.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 311.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 710.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.35b
Net Debt = 6.25b USD (calculated: Debt 8.02b - CCE 1.77b)
Enterprise Value = 11.4b USD (5.12b + Debt 8.02b - CCE 1.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.17 (Ebit TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 265.0m)
EV/FCF = -23.84x (Enterprise Value 11.4b / FCF TTM -477.0m)
FCF Yield = -4.20% (FCF TTM -477.0m / Enterprise Value 11.4b)
FCF Margin = -3.31% (FCF TTM -477.0m / Revenue TTM 14.4b)
Net Margin = 0.51% (Net Income TTM 73.0m / Revenue TTM 14.4b)
Gross Margin = 76.89% ((Revenue TTM 14.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.58% (prev 94.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.56 (Enterprise Value 11.4b / Total Assets 20.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.31% (Interest Expense 265.0m / Debt 8.02b)
Taxrate = 31.51% (46.0m / 146.0m)
NOPAT = 213.0m (EBIT 311.0m * (1 - 31.51%))
Current Ratio = 0.43 (Total Current Assets 3.02b / Total Current Liabilities 7.06b)
Debt / Equity = 2.15 (Debt 8.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.60 (Net Debt 6.25b / EBITDA 1.12b)
Debt / FCF = -13.10 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.25b / FCF TTM -477.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.96b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.36% (Net Income 73.0m / Total Assets 20.3b)
RoE = 1.85% (Net Income TTM 73.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.96b)
RoCE = 3.54% (EBIT 311.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.96b + L.T.Debt 4.82b))
RoIC = 1.61% (NOPAT 213.0m / Invested Capital 13.2b)
WACC = 5.88% (E(5.12b)/V(13.1b) * Re(11.54%) + D(8.02b)/V(13.1b) * Rd(3.31%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -55.56 | Cagr: -4.70%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -477.0m)
EPS Correlation: -79.66 | EPS CAGR: -32.60% | SUE: -0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.92 | Revenue CAGR: 15.88% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.90 | Chg30d=-0.99% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=+8.96% | Revisions=-12% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.77 | Chg30d=+11.11% | Revisions=-68% | GrowthEPS=-131.5% | GrowthRev=+10.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.32 | Chg30d=-2.67% | Revisions=-18% | GrowthEPS=+922.9% | GrowthRev=+6.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -68%