(ALK) Alaska Air - Ratings and Ratios
Passenger Flights, Cargo Flights, Regional Flights
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 63.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.14% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.02 |
| Alpha | -32.43 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.05 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.579 |
| Beta | 1.633 |
| Beta Downside | 1.760 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 50.63% |
| Mean DD | 24.16% |
| Median DD | 26.93% |
Description: ALK Alaska Air November 05, 2025
Alaska Air Group Inc. (NYSE: ALK) operates three airline segments-Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and a regional carrier-offering scheduled passenger and cargo services on Boeing jets across the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. The firm, founded in 1932 and headquartered in Seattle, focuses on a mix of long-haul routes (e.g., Seattle-Honolulu) and shorter domestic hops.
Key performance indicators from the most recent fiscal year show a revenue of roughly $9.2 billion, an industry-average load factor of 84 % (above the 2023 U.S. airline average of 81 %), and an operating margin of 5.5 % after adjusting for fuel price volatility. The fleet comprises about 200 aircraft, with a 70 % share of fuel-efficient Boeing 737-800/MAX models, which helps mitigate the sector’s exposure to rising jet-fuel costs.
Primary economic drivers for ALK include discretionary travel demand tied to U.S. consumer confidence, fuel price swings (which historically account for 30-40 % of operating expenses), and labor-cost pressures from unionized pilots and crew. The airline’s strategic focus on Pacific-Northwest and Hawaiian routes provides a relative defensive moat against low-cost carrier competition, but the company remains sensitive to macro-economic downturns that depress leisure travel.
For a deeper, data-driven analysis of ALK’s valuation scenarios and risk factors, consider exploring the detailed dashboards on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income (150.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 848.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.84pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -22.58% (prev -23.35%; Δ 0.77pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.34b > Net Income 150.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (5.67b) to EBITDA (1.30b) ratio: 4.37 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.52 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (121.2m) change vs 12m ago -5.75% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 41.31% (prev 23.93%; Δ 17.39pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 71.47% (prev 54.98%; Δ 16.49pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 2.54 (EBITDA TTM 1.30b / Interest Expense TTM 219.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 0.27
| (A) -0.16 = (Total Current Assets 3.47b - Total Current Liabilities 6.66b) / Total Assets 20.01b |
| (B) 0.25 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 5.01b / Total Assets 20.01b |
| (C) 0.03 = EBIT TTM 557.0m / Avg Total Assets 19.79b |
| (D) 0.30 = Book Value of Equity 4.79b / Total Liabilities 15.98b |
| Total Rating: 0.27 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 52.43
| 1. Piotroski 4.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -0.59% |
| 3. FCF Margin -0.38% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.61 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 4.37 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -1.51)% |
| 7. RoE 3.64% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 81.23% |
| 9. EPS Trend 10.55% |
What is the price of ALK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.41%, over one month by +17.07%, over three months by -24.66% and over the past year by -13.03%.
Is ALK a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ALK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 66.1 | 39.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 66.1 | 39.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 46.3 | -2.2% |
ALK Fundamental Data Overview December 03, 2025
P/E Trailing = 35.1405
P/E Forward = 7.4738
P/S = 0.3488
P/B = 1.2339
P/EG = 1.3
Beta = 1.242
Revenue TTM = 14.14b USD
EBIT TTM = 557.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.49b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 744.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.47b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.67b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.10b USD (4.93b + Debt 6.47b - CCE 2.30b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.54 (Ebit TTM 557.0m / Interest Expense TTM 219.0m)
FCF Yield = -0.59% (FCF TTM -54.0m / Enterprise Value 9.10b)
FCF Margin = -0.38% (FCF TTM -54.0m / Revenue TTM 14.14b)
Net Margin = 1.06% (Net Income TTM 150.0m / Revenue TTM 14.14b)
Gross Margin = 41.31% ((Revenue TTM 14.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.30b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 95.99% (prev 25.54%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.45 (Enterprise Value 9.10b / Total Assets 20.01b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.96% (Interest Expense 62.0m / Debt 6.47b)
Taxrate = 34.23% (38.0m / 111.0m)
NOPAT = 366.3m (EBIT 557.0m * (1 - 34.23%))
Current Ratio = 0.52 (Total Current Assets 3.47b / Total Current Liabilities 6.66b)
Debt / Equity = 1.61 (Debt 6.47b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.03b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.37 (Net Debt 5.67b / EBITDA 1.30b)
Debt / FCF = -104.9 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 5.67b / FCF TTM -54.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.12b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.75% (Net Income 150.0m / Total Assets 20.01b)
RoE = 3.64% (Net Income TTM 150.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.12b)
RoCE = 6.47% (EBIT 557.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.12b + L.T.Debt 4.49b))
RoIC = 4.05% (NOPAT 366.3m / Invested Capital 9.04b)
WACC = 5.56% (E(4.93b)/V(11.40b) * Re(12.03%) + D(6.47b)/V(11.40b) * Rd(0.96%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 12.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -2.46%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -54.0m)
EPS Correlation: 10.55 | EPS CAGR: 48.23% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 81.23 | Revenue CAGR: 20.03% | SUE: 0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.58 | Chg30d=-0.154 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.50 | Chg30d=-0.326 | Revisions Net=-8 | Growth EPS=+142.0% | Growth Revenue=+7.4%
Additional Sources for ALK Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle