ALK Stock Analysis: Alaska Air | NYSE
Airlines | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.693m USD | 12M Return: -2.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 161M
EPS Trend: -79.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 94.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. is a U.S.-based holding company that operates passenger airlines through three segments: Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines, and Regional. The company provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo on Boeing jet aircraft, serving domestic routes across the United States and international destinations in Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica, Belize, Guatemala, and the Bahamas, with its Regional segment covering shorter-haul routes primarily in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Founded in 1932 and headquartered in Seattle, Washington, the company is listed on the NYSE under the ticker ALK.
As a member of the GICS Industrials sector (Passenger Airlines sub-industry), Alaska Air Group operates within a capital-intensive industry that typically relies on a hub-and-spoke network structure. Its mainline operations are centered on Boeing narrow-body aircraft, and the Regional segment is generally operated through wholly owned regional partners that feed connecting traffic into the mainline network.
- Hawaiian Airlines integration unlocks network synergies and cost savings
- Boeing 737 delivery delays constrain Alaska fleet capacity growth
- West Coast leisure travel demand supports passenger revenue and unit economics
| Net Income: 73.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -28.04% < 20% (prev -23.57%; Δ -4.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.21b > Net Income 73.0m |
| Net Debt (6.25b) to EBITDA (1.12b): 5.60 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (114.3m) vs 12m ago -7.18% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.89% > 18% (prev 24.25%; Δ 52.64% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 71.80% > 50% (prev 63.78%; Δ 8.02% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.17 > 6 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 265.0m) |
| A: -0.20 (Total Current Assets 3.02b - Total Current Liabilities 7.06b) / Total Assets 20.3b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 4.84b / Total Assets 20.3b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 311.0m / Avg Total Assets 20.1b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 3.73b / Total Liabilities 16.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.19 = B |
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 630.0m/569.0m, Revenue 14.4b/12.6b) |
| GMI: 0.32 (GM 24.25% / 76.89%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.20) |
| SGI: 1.14 (Revenue 14.4b / 12.6b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 73.0m - CFO 1.21b) / TA 20.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.39 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 49.09 with a total of 3,145,959 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.47%, over one month by +16.22%, over three months by +32.93% and over the past year by -2.93%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 45.00 (which is 8.3% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Alaska Air has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ALK.
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 62.7 | 27.6% |
P/E Trailing = 104.2653
P/E Forward = 208.3333
P/S = 0.3953
P/B = 1.5258
P/EG = 1.1978
Revenue TTM = 14.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 311.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.82b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 710.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.35b
Net Debt = 6.25b USD (calculated: Debt 8.02b - CCE 1.77b)
Enterprise Value = 11.9b USD (5.69b + Debt 8.02b - CCE 1.77b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.17 (Ebit TTM 311.0m / Interest Expense TTM 265.0m)
EV/FCF = -25.03x (Enterprise Value 11.9b / FCF TTM -477.0m)
FCF Yield = -3.99% (FCF TTM -477.0m / Enterprise Value 11.9b)
FCF Margin = -3.31% (FCF TTM -477.0m / Revenue TTM 14.4b)
Net Margin = 0.51% (Net Income TTM 73.0m / Revenue TTM 14.4b)
Gross Margin = 76.89% ((Revenue TTM 14.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.33b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 93.58% (prev 94.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.59 (Enterprise Value 11.9b / Total Assets 20.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.31% (Interest Expense 265.0m / Debt 8.02b)
Taxrate = 31.51% (46.0m / 146.0m)
NOPAT = 213.0m (EBIT 311.0m * (1 - 31.51%))
Current Ratio = 0.43 (Total Current Assets 3.02b / Total Current Liabilities 7.06b)
Debt / Equity = 2.15 (Debt 8.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.73b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.60 (Net Debt 6.25b / EBITDA 1.12b)
Debt / FCF = -13.10 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 6.25b / FCF TTM -477.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.96b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.36% (Net Income 73.0m / Total Assets 20.3b)
RoE = 1.85% (Net Income TTM 73.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.96b)
RoCE = 3.54% (EBIT 311.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.96b + L.T.Debt 4.82b))
RoIC = 1.61% (NOPAT 213.0m / Invested Capital 13.2b)
WACC = 6.15% (E(5.69b)/V(13.7b) * Re(11.62%) + D(8.02b)/V(13.7b) * Rd(3.31%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -55.56 | Cagr: -4.70%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -477.0m)
EPS Correlation: -79.66 | EPS CAGR: -32.60% | SUE: -0.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 94.92 | Revenue CAGR: 15.88% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=-0.98 | Chg30d=-9.26% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=15
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=+26.44% | Revisions=+44% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.36 | Chg30d=+53.76% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=-114.6% | GrowthRev=+11.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.40 | Chg30d=+1.13% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=+1899.8% | GrowthRev=+5.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +43% (up=15, down=5)