(AMR) Alpha Metallurgical - Overview
Stock: Metallurgical Coal, Thermal Coal, Processed Coal
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 64.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.46 |
| Alpha | -2.77 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.855 |
| Beta Downside | 0.847 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.51% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.12 |
Description: AMR Alpha Metallurgical January 15, 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is a U.S.-based mining firm that extracts, processes, and sells both metallurgical and thermal coal from its twenty active mines and eight preparation/load-out facilities in Virginia and West Virginia. The company, incorporated in 2016 and headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee, rebranded from Contura Energy in February 2021.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023): revenue of roughly $1.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $85 million, and a net loss of $210 million driven by elevated debt service; production averaged 30 million short tons, with a 65% metallurgical-coal mix. As of Q4 2023, cash on hand stood at $520 million and the debt-to-equity ratio was 1.2×, indicating moderate leverage but limited financial flexibility.
The company’s outlook is tightly linked to three macro drivers: (1) Asian steel-making demand, which underpins metallurgical-coal pricing; (2) U.S. environmental regulations that could restrict thermal-coal sales and increase compliance costs; and (3) global freight-rate volatility, which affects export margins for both coal types. A 10% decline in steel-mill capacity in China historically correlates with a 7% drop in metallurgical-coal spot prices, a relationship worth monitoring.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides a granular breakdown of AMR’s valuation metrics and peer comparisons.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -46.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -19.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.21% < 20% (prev 23.89%; Δ 9.32% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 182.2m > Net Income -46.5m |
| Net Debt (-403.5m) to EBITDA (132.8m): -3.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.95 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (13.0m) vs 12m ago -0.59% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 2.46% > 18% (prev 0.16%; Δ 229.4% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 92.29% > 50% (prev 133.1%; Δ -40.80% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -18.06 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 132.8m / Interest Expense TTM 2.87m) |
Altman Z'' 7.74
| A: 0.32 (Total Current Assets 989.9m - Total Current Liabilities 250.5m) / Total Assets 2.35b |
| B: 0.90 (Retained Earnings 2.11b / Total Assets 2.35b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -51.9m / Avg Total Assets 2.41b) |
| D: 2.74 (Book Value of Equity 2.06b / Total Liabilities 753.2m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.74 = AAA |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 1.14 (Receivables 289.2m/375.9m, Revenue 2.23b/3.30b) |
| GMI: 6.63 (GM 2.46% / 16.29%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.14 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 0.67 (Revenue 2.23b / 3.30b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI -46.5m - CFO 182.2m) / TA 2.35b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 1.88 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of AMR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.66%, over one month by -2.47%, over three months by +20.57% and over the past year by +14.81%.
Is AMR a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 204.5 | -0.9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 204.5 | -0.9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 220.1 | 6.7% |
AMR Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.2301
P/B = 1.7853
Revenue TTM = 2.23b USD
EBIT TTM = -51.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 132.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.85m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.12m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.97m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -403.5m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.34b USD (2.74b + Debt 4.97m - CCE 408.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -18.06 (Ebit TTM -51.9m / Interest Expense TTM 2.87m)
EV/FCF = 56.49x (Enterprise Value 2.34b / FCF TTM 41.3m)
FCF Yield = 1.77% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Enterprise Value 2.34b)
FCF Margin = 1.86% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Net Margin = -2.09% (Net Income TTM -46.5m / Revenue TTM 2.23b)
Gross Margin = 2.46% ((Revenue TTM 2.23b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.17b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 3.78% (prev 3.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.00 (Enterprise Value 2.34b / Total Assets 2.35b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 15.38% (Interest Expense 765.0k / Debt 4.97m)
Taxrate = 10.99% (23.2m / 210.8m)
NOPAT = -46.2m (EBIT -51.9m * (1 - 10.99%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.95 (Total Current Assets 989.9m / Total Current Liabilities 250.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 4.97m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.59b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.04 (Net Debt -403.5m / EBITDA 132.8m)
Debt / FCF = -9.76 (Net Debt -403.5m / FCF TTM 41.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.62b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.93% (Net Income -46.5m / Total Assets 2.35b)
RoE = -2.88% (Net Income TTM -46.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.62b)
RoCE = -3.20% (EBIT -51.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.62b + L.T.Debt 2.85m))
RoIC = -2.84% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -46.2m / Invested Capital 1.62b)
WACC = 9.07% (E(2.74b)/V(2.74b) * Re(9.06%) + D(4.97m)/V(2.74b) * Rd(15.38%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.40%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.53% ; FCFF base≈238.2m ; Y1≈156.4m ; Y5≈71.4m
Fair Price DCF = 122.9 (EV 1.18b - Net Debt -403.5m = Equity 1.58b / Shares 12.9m; r=9.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -89.28 | EPS CAGR: -40.51% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -83.03 | Revenue CAGR: -11.37% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.52 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=21.37 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+746.3% | Growth Revenue=+21.1%