(AMRC) Ameresco - Overview
Stock: Energy Efficiency, Renewable Energy, Infrastructure, Solar PV, O&M Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 100% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.82 |
| Alpha | 29.76 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.671 |
| Beta Downside | 1.739 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 86.26% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.20 |
Description: AMRC Ameresco January 21, 2026
Ameresco, Inc. (NYSE: AMRC) delivers integrated energy-efficiency, renewable-energy, and resiliency services across the United States, Canada, and Europe, operating through five segments: North America Regions, U.S. Federal, Renewable Fuels, Europe, and All Other. Its business model combines engineering-design-build of custom HVAC, lighting, and building-system upgrades with ownership-and-operation of small-scale renewable assets (solar PV, wind, and renewable-gas facilities), allowing it to capture both fee-based O&M revenue and commodity sales of electricity, renewable gas, and thermal energy.
Key performance indicators from the most recent FY 2023 filing show ≈ $2.1 billion of total revenue, with a 9 % year-over-year increase driven largely by federal contracts and expanding renewable-fuel sales; the companys backlog stood at $1.4 billion, indicating a pipeline of projects valued at roughly 67 % of annual revenue. A sector-wide driver is the accelerating “green-building” and ESG spending by public institutions, which historically adds ~3–4 % to annual growth rates for energy-service firms. Additionally, the U.S. inflation-adjusted cost of capital for infrastructure projects has been trending lower (≈ 5-6 % WACC), improving the net present value of long-term O&M contracts.
For a deeper dive into AMRC’s valuation sensitivities and peer-group benchmarks, you might explore the analytics on ValueRay to see how its cash-flow profile compares under different policy-scenario assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: 63.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.94 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 25.54% < 20% (prev 6.59%; Δ 18.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.00 > 3% & CFO -19.1m > Net Income 63.0m |
| Net Debt (2.37b) to EBITDA (233.1m): 10.16 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.51 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.4m) vs 12m ago 0.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 14.67% > 18% (prev 0.16%; Δ 1452 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.81% > 50% (prev 42.15%; Δ 2.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.58 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 233.1m / Interest Expense TTM 82.5m) |
Altman Z'' 1.63
| A: 0.11 (Total Current Assets 1.42b - Total Current Liabilities 939.3m) / Total Assets 4.43b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 678.4m / Total Assets 4.43b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 130.1m / Avg Total Assets 4.20b) |
| D: 0.20 (Book Value of Equity 677.3m / Total Liabilities 3.33b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.63 = BB |
Beneish M -2.97
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 994.0m/865.5m, Revenue 1.88b/1.68b) |
| GMI: 1.07 (GM 14.67% / 15.70%) |
| AQI: 0.78 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.12 (Revenue 1.88b / 1.68b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 63.0m - CFO -19.1m) / TA 4.43b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AMRC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.34%, over one month by +1.51%, over three months by -15.52% and over the past year by +46.47%.
Is AMRC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the AMRC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 43.5 | 40.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 43.5 | 40.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 29.9 | -3.4% |
AMRC Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 26.3158
P/S = 0.8568
P/B = 1.6189
P/EG = 1.0514
Revenue TTM = 1.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 130.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 233.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 175.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.46b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.37b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.98b USD (1.61b + Debt 2.46b - CCE 94.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.58 (Ebit TTM 130.1m / Interest Expense TTM 82.5m)
EV/FCF = -13.51x (Enterprise Value 3.98b / FCF TTM -294.8m)
FCF Yield = -7.40% (FCF TTM -294.8m / Enterprise Value 3.98b)
FCF Margin = -15.65% (FCF TTM -294.8m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Net Margin = 3.34% (Net Income TTM 63.0m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Gross Margin = 14.67% ((Revenue TTM 1.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.61b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.03% (prev 15.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.90 (Enterprise Value 3.98b / Total Assets 4.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.89% (Interest Expense 22.0m / Debt 2.46b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 102.8m (EBIT 130.1m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.51 (Total Current Assets 1.42b / Total Current Liabilities 939.3m)
Debt / Equity = 2.33 (Debt 2.46b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.06b)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.16 (Net Debt 2.37b / EBITDA 233.1m)
Debt / FCF = -8.03 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.37b / FCF TTM -294.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.03b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.50% (Net Income 63.0m / Total Assets 4.43b)
RoE = 6.12% (Net Income TTM 63.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.03b)
RoCE = 4.74% (EBIT 130.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.03b + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 3.68% (NOPAT 102.8m / Invested Capital 2.79b)
WACC = 5.20% (E(1.61b)/V(4.08b) * Re(12.07%) + D(2.46b)/V(4.08b) * Rd(0.89%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 12.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.10%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -294.8m)
EPS Correlation: -28.05 | EPS CAGR: -28.94% | SUE: -2.40 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 15.50 | Revenue CAGR: 6.46% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.01 | Chg30d=-0.012 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.20 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+35.6% | Growth Revenue=+9.6%