AR Stock Analysis: Antero Resources | NYSE

Natural Gas, Oil, Gas Liquids, Pipeline Services

Total Rating 42

Safety 12

Buy Signal -0.16

Oil & Gas E&P
Industry Rotation: -1.5

Market Cap: 11.3B
Avg Turnover: 139M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility38.6%

VaR 5^th Pctl6.71%

VaR vs Median5.54%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio0.70

Rel. Str. IBD78.1

Rel. Str. Peer Group32.7 pctl

Character TTM

Beta0.298

Beta Downside0.674

Hurst Exponent0.526

Choppyness55.6%

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD33.19%

CAGR/Max DD0.36

CAGR/Mean DD0.73

EPS (Earnings per Share)

Last SUE: -0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 9.17%
Rev. Trend: 69.2%

Last SUE: -0.68
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +3.7% 43

Feb -1.3% 17

Mar +6.5% 22

Apr -2.5% 5

May +1.6% 25

Jun +0.9% 8

Jul -2.5% 15

Aug -4.5% 28

Sep +0.1% 0

Oct -2.5% 14

Nov -7.2% 16

Dec -0.7% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AR Antero Resources

Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR) is an independent oil and natural gas company engaged in the development, production, exploration, and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and oil properties in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Marketing; and Equity Method Investment in Antero Midstream. As of December 31, 2025, Antero held approximately 537,000 net acres in the Appalachian Basin and approximately 168,000 net acres in the Upper Devonian Shale, supported by 731 miles of gas gathering pipelines in the Appalachian region. The company was incorporated in 2002, is headquartered in Denver, Colorado, and has been listed on the NYSE since its 2013 IPO.

As a U.S. exploration and production (E&P) operator, Antero focuses heavily on natural gas and NGLs (such as ethane, propane, and butane used in petrochemicals and heating) rather than crude oil, with its acreage concentrated in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays of the Appalachian Basin-one of the largest and lowest-cost natural gas producing regions in North America. Its equity-method investment in Antero Midstream reflects a vertically integrated business model common among Appalachian producers, where midstream affiliates handle gathering, processing, and water management to support upstream operations.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Natural gas prices decline as mild winter reduces demand
NGL production margins face ethane rejection pressure
Antero Midstream equity investment drives fee-based revenue growth
Marcellus shale well productivity supports low-cost production growth

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 6.0

Net Income: 1.08b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.34 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -18.43% < 20% (prev -20.66%; Δ 2.23% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 1.98b > Net Income 1.08b
Net Debt (6.41b) to EBITDA (2.39b): 2.68 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.40 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (310.6m) vs 12m ago -0.81% < -2%
Gross Margin: 26.02% > 18% (prev 17.45%; Δ 8.57% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 40.12% > 50% (prev 37.05%; Δ 3.07% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.72 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.58b / Interest Expense TTM 114.8m)

Altman Z'' 2.10

A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 693.6m - Total Current Liabilities 1.73b) / Total Assets 15.2b
B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 2.48b / Total Assets 15.2b)
C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 1.58b / Avg Total Assets 14.0b)
D: 1.20 (Book Value of Equity 8.32b / Total Liabilities 6.92b)
Altman-Z'' = 2.10 = BBB

Beneish M 1.00

DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 25.1m/399.5m, Revenue 5.62b/4.73b)
GMI: 0.67 (GM 17.45% / 26.02%)
AQI: 36.41 (AQ_t 0.81 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 5.62b / 4.73b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.08b - CFO 1.98b) / TA 15.2b)
Beneish M = 17.06 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of AR shares?

As of October 20, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 38.83 with a total of 3,953,058 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.21%, over one month by +14.34%, over three months by +16.85% and over the past year by +21.92%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 37.20 (which is 4.2% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is AR a buy, sell or hold?

Antero Resources has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.24. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AR.

StrongBuy: 12
Buy: 2
Hold: 7
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the AR price?

Analysts Target Price	49.6	27.7%

Antero Resources (AR) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 16 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 11.3b (11.3b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 10.5259
P/E Forward = 8.9606
P/S = 1.9479
P/B = 1.3178
P/EG = 0.4479
Revenue TTM = 5.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.58b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.39b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.43b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 714.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.62b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 2.00b
Net Debt = 6.41b USD (calculated: Debt 6.62b - CCE 210.0m)
Enterprise Value = 17.7b USD (11.3b + Debt 6.62b - CCE 210.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.72 (Ebit TTM 1.58b / Interest Expense TTM 114.8m)
EV/FCF = 12.53x (Enterprise Value 17.7b / FCF TTM 1.41b)
FCF Yield = 7.98% (FCF TTM 1.41b / Enterprise Value 17.7b)
FCF Margin = 25.11% (FCF TTM 1.41b / Revenue TTM 5.62b)
Net Margin = 19.29% (Net Income TTM 1.08b / Revenue TTM 5.62b)
Gross Margin = 26.02% ((Revenue TTM 5.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.16b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 20.65% (prev 39.82%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 17.7b / Total Assets 15.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.74% (Interest Expense 114.8m / Debt 6.62b)
Taxrate = 23.12% (337.8m / 1.46b)
NOPAT = 1.21b (EBIT 1.58b * (1 - 23.12%))
Current Ratio = 0.40 (Total Current Assets 693.6m / Total Current Liabilities 1.73b)
Debt / Equity = 0.80 (Debt 6.62b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.68 (Net Debt 6.41b / EBITDA 2.39b)
Debt / FCF = 4.54 (Net Debt 6.41b / FCF TTM 1.41b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.82b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.74% (Net Income 1.08b / Total Assets 15.2b)
RoE = 13.86% (Net Income TTM 1.08b / Total Stockholder Equity 7.82b)
RoCE = 15.37% (EBIT 1.58b / Capital Employed (Equity 7.82b + L.T.Debt 2.43b))
RoIC = 8.65% (NOPAT 1.21b / Invested Capital 14.0b)
WACC = 4.68% (E(11.3b)/V(17.9b) * Re(6.65%) + D(6.62b)/V(17.9b) * Rd(1.74%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -27.25 | Cagr: -0.26%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.98% ; FCFF base≈1.39b ; Y1≈1.44b ; Y5≈1.64b
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.33 (EV 25.3b - Net Debt 6.41b = Equity 18.9b / Shares 307.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.21% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.08 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.24 | Revenue CAGR: 9.17% | SUE: -0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=-6.27% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.37 | Chg30d=+1.54% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+153.8% | GrowthRev=+29.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.47 | Chg30d=+4.49% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+2.4% | GrowthRev=-0.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=7, down=7)