(ARCO) Arcos Dorados Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Uruguay • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: VGG0457F1071

Burgers, Fries, Beverages, Desserts, Breakfast

Stock: Restaurants
Age 14.8y

MCap 1,599m
Avg Vol 871K (6.31M USD)

Beta 0.713
Volatility 33.14%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -43.91%
EPS Trend: -28.0%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 11.98%
Rev. Trend: 86.8%

Last SUE: -0.51
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	3.23%
Yield on Cost 5y	4.98%
Yield CAGR 5y	16.96%
Payout Consistency	61.6%
Payout Ratio	38.7%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	33.1%
Value at Risk 5%th	50.3%
Relative Tail Risk	-7.69%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.24
Alpha	-10.21
CAGR/Max DD	-0.04

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.383
Beta	0.713
Beta Downside	0.785

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	47.87%
Mean DD	24.49%
Median DD	26.40%

Description: ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings January 15, 2026

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO) is the exclusive master franchisee for McDonald’s in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets, operating and sub-franchising restaurants across countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, the firm leverages McDonald’s brand equity while tailoring menus and pricing to local consumer preferences.

Key metrics from the most recent fiscal year show total systemwide sales of roughly $5.5 billion, with comparable-store sales growth of +5.2 % year-over-year, driven largely by Brazil and Mexico. The business is highly sensitive to regional macro-factors: commodity price volatility (e.g., beef and coffee), exchange-rate fluctuations, and consumer-spending trends in emerging economies, which together account for over 70 % of its revenue mix. Additionally, the company’s “Digital & Delivery” initiatives have lifted online order penetration to ≈ 15 % of total sales, outpacing the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector average of ≈ 10 %.

For a deeper dive into how Arcos Dorados’ exposure to currency risk and its digital transformation compare to peers, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay for a data-rich perspective.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5

Net Income (245.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 273.4m TTM)

FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.37pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -1.83% (prev -6.60%; Δ 4.77pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 271.0m > Net Income 245.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (1.88b) to EBITDA (571.6m) ratio: 3.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.89 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (210.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 12.39% (prev 12.94%; Δ -0.55pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 139.6% (prev 152.0%; Δ -12.42pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 8.86 (EBITDA TTM 571.6m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.65

(A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 649.4m - Total Current Liabilities 732.8m) / Total Assets 3.57b

(B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 800.8m / Total Assets 3.57b

(D) 0.27 = Book Value of Equity 755.5m / Total Liabilities 2.82b

Total Rating: 1.65 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 65.12

1. Piotroski 2.50pt

2. FCF Yield 0.08%

3. FCF Margin 0.06%

4. Debt/Equity 2.77

5. Debt/Ebitda 3.29

6. ROIC - WACC (= 16.56)%

7. RoE 41.79%

8. Rev. Trend 86.82%

9. EPS Trend -28.05%

What is the price of ARCO shares?

As of January 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 7.53 with a total of 488,577 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.44%, over one month by +4.59%, over three months by +7.40% and over the past year by +6.83%.

Is ARCO a buy, sell or hold?

Arcos Dorados Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCO.

Strong Buy: 2
Buy: 5
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	9.5	26.4%
Analysts Target Price	9.5	26.4%
ValueRay Target Price	7.8	4.1%

ARCO Fundamental Data Overview January 17, 2026

P/E Trailing = 6.4872
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.351
P/B = 2.1609
P/EG = 2.15
Revenue TTM = 4.56b USD
EBIT TTM = 383.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 571.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 985.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 108.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.88b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.40b USD (1.60b + Debt 2.06b - CCE 256.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.86 (Ebit TTM 383.0m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
EV/FCF = 1000.0x (Enterprise Value 3.40b / FCF TTM 2.58m)
FCF Yield = 0.08% (FCF TTM 2.58m / Enterprise Value 3.40b)
FCF Margin = 0.06% (FCF TTM 2.58m / Revenue TTM 4.56b)
Net Margin = 5.39% (Net Income TTM 245.3m / Revenue TTM 4.56b)
Gross Margin = 12.39% ((Revenue TTM 4.56b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.99b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.90% (prev 11.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.95 (Enterprise Value 3.40b / Total Assets 3.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.90% (Interest Expense 18.5m / Debt 2.06b)
Taxrate = 14.60% (25.7m / 176.3m)
NOPAT = 327.1m (EBIT 383.0m * (1 - 14.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.89 (Total Current Assets 649.4m / Total Current Liabilities 732.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.77 (Debt 2.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 744.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.29 (Net Debt 1.88b / EBITDA 571.6m)
Debt / FCF = 727.6 (Net Debt 1.88b / FCF TTM 2.58m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 587.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.52% (Net Income 245.3m / Total Assets 3.57b)
RoE = 41.79% (Net Income TTM 245.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 587.1m)
RoCE = 24.36% (EBIT 383.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 587.1m + L.T.Debt 985.2m))
RoIC = 20.72% (NOPAT 327.1m / Invested Capital 1.58b)
WACC = 4.17% (E(1.60b)/V(3.66b) * Re(8.55%) + D(2.06b)/V(3.66b) * Rd(0.90%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 8.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈2.58m ; Y1≈1.70m ; Y5≈773.6k
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 24.7m - Net Debt 1.88b = -1.85b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -28.05 | EPS CAGR: -43.91% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.82 | Revenue CAGR: 11.98% | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-2.9% | Growth Revenue=+7.2%

Additional Sources for ARCO Stock

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