Overview Dividends

(ARCO) Arcos Dorados Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Uruguay • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: VGG0457F1071

Burgers, Fries, Beverages, Desserts

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3y CAGR): 44.10%
EPS Trend (3y Corr): 5.3%

Last SUE: 4.00σ
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Revenue Growth (3y CAGR): 5.91%
Revenue Trend (3y Corr): 71.7%

Last SUE: -0.51σ
Qual. Beats: 0

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	33.4%
Value at Risk 5%th	51.9%
Relative Tail Risk	-5.66%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.41
Alpha	-26.67

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.428
Beta	0.732
Beta Downside	0.942

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	47.87%
Mean DD	22.49%
Median DD	21.64%

Description: ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings November 12, 2025

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO) is the exclusive master franchisee for McDonald’s in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets, operating and licensing restaurants across countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, the firm controls the largest McDonald’s footprint worldwide, with over 2,200 outlets as of 2024.

Key performance indicators that investors monitor include: (1) 2023 system-wide sales growth of roughly 7 % year-over-year, driven largely by Brazil and Mexico; (2) comparable-store (same-store) sales growth of 5.2 % in the same period, reflecting menu localization and digital ordering adoption; and (3) a 2023 free cash flow conversion of about 65 % of net income, supporting ongoing franchise expansion and dividend payouts. These metrics are sensitive to regional macro-factors such as currency volatility (especially the Brazilian real and Argentine peso) and inflation-driven cost pressures on labor and food commodities.

Given the firm’s exposure to emerging-market consumer trends-rising urban middle-class income, increasing fast-food penetration, and expanding digital delivery ecosystems-ARCO’s growth outlook hinges on its ability to manage cost inflation while leveraging McDonald’s brand strength. For a deeper quantitative assessment of ARCO’s valuation metrics, you may find the analysis on ValueRay worth reviewing.

ARCO Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	1,544m
Sub-Industry	Restaurants
IPO / Inception	2011-04-14
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-22.5%
Analyst Rating	4.13 of 5

ARCO Dividends

Metric	Value
Dividend Yield	4.14%
Yield on Cost 5y	7.09%
Yield CAGR 5y	21.54%
Payout Consistency	60.0%
Payout Ratio	20.2%

ARCO Growth Ratios

Metric	Value
CAGR 3y	2.52%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.05
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	0.11
Current Volume	560k
Average Volume	1174.8k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5

Net Income (245.3m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 273.4m TTM)

FCFTA 0.00 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 2.08pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -1.83% (prev -6.60%; Δ 4.77pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 271.0m > Net Income 245.3m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (1.88b) to EBITDA (571.6m) ratio: 3.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.89 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (210.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 12.39% (prev 14.48%; Δ -2.10pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 139.6% (prev 152.0%; Δ -12.42pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 8.86 (EBITDA TTM 571.6m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.65

(A) -0.02 = (Total Current Assets 649.4m - Total Current Liabilities 732.8m) / Total Assets 3.57b

(B) 0.22 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 800.8m / Total Assets 3.57b

(D) 0.27 = Book Value of Equity 755.5m / Total Liabilities 2.82b

Total Rating: 1.65 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 65.65

1. Piotroski 2.50pt = -2.50

2. FCF Yield 0.08% = 0.04

3. FCF Margin 0.06% = 0.01

4. Debt/Equity 2.77 = -0.42

5. Debt/Ebitda 3.29 = -2.12

6. ROIC - WACC (= 17.26)% = 12.50

7. RoE 41.79% = 2.50

8. Rev. Trend 71.67% = 5.38

9. EPS Trend 5.25% = 0.26

What is the price of ARCO shares?

As of November 21, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 7.25 with a total of 560,011 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.48%, over one month by +3.13%, over three months by +0.87% and over the past year by -11.93%.

Is ARCO a buy, sell or hold?

Arcos Dorados Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCO.

Strong Buy: 2
Buy: 5
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	10.1	39.6%
Analysts Target Price	10.1	39.6%
ValueRay Target Price	7.6	5%

ARCO Fundamental Data Overview November 15, 2025

Market Cap USD = 1.54b (1.54b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 6.265
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3389
P/B = 2.1468
P/EG = 2.15
Beta = 0.47
Revenue TTM = 4.56b USD
EBIT TTM = 383.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 571.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 716.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 108.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.88b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.35b USD (1.54b + Debt 2.06b - CCE 256.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.86 (Ebit TTM 383.0m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.08% (FCF TTM 2.58m / Enterprise Value 3.35b)
FCF Margin = 0.06% (FCF TTM 2.58m / Revenue TTM 4.56b)
Net Margin = 5.39% (Net Income TTM 245.3m / Revenue TTM 4.56b)
Gross Margin = 12.39% ((Revenue TTM 4.56b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.99b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.90% (prev 11.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.94 (Enterprise Value 3.35b / Total Assets 3.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.90% (Interest Expense 18.5m / Debt 2.06b)
Taxrate = 14.60% (25.7m / 176.3m)
NOPAT = 327.1m (EBIT 383.0m * (1 - 14.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.89 (Total Current Assets 649.4m / Total Current Liabilities 732.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.77 (Debt 2.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 744.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.29 (Net Debt 1.88b / EBITDA 571.6m)
Debt / FCF = 727.6 (Net Debt 1.88b / FCF TTM 2.58m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 587.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.88% (Net Income 245.3m / Total Assets 3.57b)
RoE = 41.79% (Net Income TTM 245.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 587.1m)
RoCE = 29.40% (EBIT 383.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 587.1m + L.T.Debt 716.0m))
RoIC = 21.43% (NOPAT 327.1m / Invested Capital 1.53b)
WACC = 4.17% (E(1.54b)/V(3.61b) * Re(8.71%) + D(2.06b)/V(3.61b) * Rd(0.90%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 8.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.50% ; FCFE base≈2.58m ; Y1≈1.70m ; Y5≈775.5k
Fair Price DCF = 0.10 (DCF Value 13.7m / Shares Outstanding 130.7m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 5.25 | EPS CAGR: 44.10% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 71.67 | Revenue CAGR: 5.91% | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for ARCO Stock

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