(ARCO) Arcos Dorados Holdings - Overview
Stock: Burgers, Fries, Beverages, Desserts, Breakfast
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.23% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.93% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.96% |
| Payout Consistency | 61.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 70.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.06% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.36 |
| Alpha | -0.01 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.728 |
| Beta Downside | 0.853 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 47.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.09 |
Description: ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings January 15, 2026
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO) is the exclusive master franchisee for McDonald’s in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets, operating and sub-franchising restaurants across countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, the firm leverages McDonald’s brand equity while tailoring menus and pricing to local consumer preferences.
Key metrics from the most recent fiscal year show total systemwide sales of roughly $5.5 billion, with comparable-store sales growth of +5.2 % year-over-year, driven largely by Brazil and Mexico. The business is highly sensitive to regional macro-factors: commodity price volatility (e.g., beef and coffee), exchange-rate fluctuations, and consumer-spending trends in emerging economies, which together account for over 70 % of its revenue mix. Additionally, the company’s “Digital & Delivery” initiatives have lifted online order penetration to ≈ 15 % of total sales, outpacing the broader quick-service restaurant (QSR) sector average of ≈ 10 %.
For a deeper dive into how Arcos Dorados’ exposure to currency risk and its digital transformation compare to peers, you might explore the analyst tools on ValueRay for a data-rich perspective.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: 245.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.83% < 20% (prev -6.60%; Δ 4.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 271.0m > Net Income 245.3m |
| Net Debt (1.88b) to EBITDA (571.6m): 3.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.89 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.7m) vs 12m ago 0.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 12.39% > 18% (prev 0.13%; Δ 1226 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 139.6% > 50% (prev 152.0%; Δ -12.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.86 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 571.6m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m) |
Altman Z'' 1.65
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 649.4m - Total Current Liabilities 732.8m) / Total Assets 3.57b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 800.8m / Total Assets 3.57b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 383.0m / Avg Total Assets 3.26b) |
| D: 0.27 (Book Value of Equity 755.5m / Total Liabilities 2.82b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.65 = BB |
Beneish M -2.88
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 149.6m/177.1m, Revenue 4.56b/4.50b) |
| GMI: 1.04 (GM 12.39% / 12.94%) |
| AQI: 1.41 (AQ_t 0.16 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 4.56b / 4.50b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 245.3m - CFO 271.0m) / TA 3.57b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.88 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of ARCO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.52%, over one month by +10.32%, over three months by +23.17% and over the past year by +11.22%.
Is ARCO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.7 | 13.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.7 | 13.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 9 | 4.8% |
ARCO Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3782
P/B = 2.3024
P/EG = 2.15
Revenue TTM = 4.56b USD
EBIT TTM = 383.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 571.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 985.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 108.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.06b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.88b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.53b USD (1.72b + Debt 2.06b - CCE 256.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 8.86 (Ebit TTM 383.0m / Interest Expense TTM 43.3m)
EV/FCF = 1000.0x (Enterprise Value 3.53b / FCF TTM 2.58m)
FCF Yield = 0.07% (FCF TTM 2.58m / Enterprise Value 3.53b)
FCF Margin = 0.06% (FCF TTM 2.58m / Revenue TTM 4.56b)
Net Margin = 5.39% (Net Income TTM 245.3m / Revenue TTM 4.56b)
Gross Margin = 12.39% ((Revenue TTM 4.56b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.99b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.90% (prev 11.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.99 (Enterprise Value 3.53b / Total Assets 3.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.90% (Interest Expense 18.5m / Debt 2.06b)
Taxrate = 14.60% (25.7m / 176.3m)
NOPAT = 327.1m (EBIT 383.0m * (1 - 14.60%))
Current Ratio = 0.89 (Total Current Assets 649.4m / Total Current Liabilities 732.8m)
Debt / Equity = 2.77 (Debt 2.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 744.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.29 (Net Debt 1.88b / EBITDA 571.6m)
Debt / FCF = 727.6 (Net Debt 1.88b / FCF TTM 2.58m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 587.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.52% (Net Income 245.3m / Total Assets 3.57b)
RoE = 41.79% (Net Income TTM 245.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 587.1m)
RoCE = 24.36% (EBIT 383.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 587.1m + L.T.Debt 985.2m))
RoIC = 20.72% (NOPAT 327.1m / Invested Capital 1.58b)
WACC = 4.33% (E(1.72b)/V(3.79b) * Re(8.60%) + D(2.06b)/V(3.79b) * Rd(0.90%) * (1-Tc(0.15)))
Discount Rate = 8.60% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈2.58m ; Y1≈1.70m ; Y5≈773.6k
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 24.7m - Net Debt 1.88b = -1.85b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -28.05 | EPS CAGR: -43.91% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 86.82 | Revenue CAGR: 11.98% | SUE: -0.51 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.11 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-3.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.9%