Overview Dividends

(ARCO) Arcos Dorados Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Uruguay • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: VGG0457F1071

Burgers, Fries, Beverages, Desserts

ARCO EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -64.88%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -57.7%

ARCO Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): 8.12%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): 73.9%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	34.0%
Value at Risk 5%th	52.2%

Reward
Sharpe Ratio	-0.13
Alpha Jensen	-17.59

Character
Hurst Exponent	0.382
Beta	0.470

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	47.87%
Mean DD	22.24%

Description: ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings November 12, 2025

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (NYSE: ARCO) is the exclusive master franchisee for McDonald’s in 20 Latin American and Caribbean markets, operating and licensing restaurants across countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay, the firm controls the largest McDonald’s footprint worldwide, with over 2,200 outlets as of 2024.

Key performance indicators that investors monitor include: (1) 2023 system-wide sales growth of roughly 7 % year-over-year, driven largely by Brazil and Mexico; (2) comparable-store (same-store) sales growth of 5.2 % in the same period, reflecting menu localization and digital ordering adoption; and (3) a 2023 free cash flow conversion of about 65 % of net income, supporting ongoing franchise expansion and dividend payouts. These metrics are sensitive to regional macro-factors such as currency volatility (especially the Brazilian real and Argentine peso) and inflation-driven cost pressures on labor and food commodities.

Given the firm’s exposure to emerging-market consumer trends-rising urban middle-class income, increasing fast-food penetration, and expanding digital delivery ecosystems-ARCO’s growth outlook hinges on its ability to manage cost inflation while leveraging McDonald’s brand strength. For a deeper quantitative assessment of ARCO’s valuation metrics, you may find the analysis on ValueRay worth reviewing.

ARCO Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	1,487m
Sub-Industry	Restaurants
IPO / Inception	2011-04-14
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-19.5%
Analyst Rating	4.13 of 5

ARCO Dividends

Dividend Yield	3.95%
Yield on Cost 5y	6.85%
Yield CAGR 5y	21.54%
Payout Consistency	60.0%
Payout Ratio	50.0%

ARCO Growth Ratios

CAGR	4.35%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.09
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	0.20
Current Volume	2982k
Average Volume	1087.4k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5

Net Income (130.1m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 269.8m TTM)

FCFTA -0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 0.12pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue -3.44% (prev -6.75%; Δ 3.31pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.08 (>3.0%) and CFO 258.5m > Net Income 130.1m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (1.88b) to EBITDA (474.4m) ratio: 3.96 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 0.80 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (210.7m) change vs 12m ago 0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 12.53% (prev 14.96%; Δ -2.42pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 143.5% (prev 155.1%; Δ -11.66pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 5.63 (EBITDA TTM 474.4m / Interest Expense TTM 51.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.17

(A) -0.05 = (Total Current Assets 623.7m - Total Current Liabilities 778.6m) / Total Assets 3.37b

(B) 0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 650.3m / Total Assets 3.37b

(D) 0.21 = Book Value of Equity 590.9m / Total Liabilities 2.79b

Total Rating: 1.17 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 55.99

1. Piotroski 1.50pt = -3.50

2. FCF Yield -0.66% = -0.33

3. FCF Margin -0.48% = -0.18

4. Debt/Equity 3.49 = -1.46

5. Debt/Ebitda 3.96 = -2.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= 7.40)% = 9.25

7. RoE 24.60% = 2.05

8. Rev. Trend 73.88% = 5.54

9. EPS Trend -57.68% = -2.88

What is the price of ARCO shares?

As of November 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 7.59 with a total of 2,981,987 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.60%, over one month by +9.52%, over three months by +10.16% and over the past year by -6.70%.

Is Arcos Dorados Holdings a good stock to buy?

Neither. Based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, Arcos Dorados Holdings is currently (November 2025) neither a good nor a bad stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 55.99 and therefor a neutral outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of ARCO is around 7.57 USD . This means that ARCO is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -0.26%.

Is ARCO a buy, sell or hold?

Arcos Dorados Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.13. Therefore, it is recommended to buy ARCO.

Strong Buy: 2
Buy: 5
Hold: 1
Sell: 0
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARCO price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	10.2	34.3%
Analysts Target Price	10.2	34.3%
ValueRay Target Price	8.1	6.3%

ARCO Fundamental Data Overview November 11, 2025

Market Cap USD = 1.49b (1.49b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 11.3871
P/E Forward = 14.5138
P/S = 0.3307
P/B = 2.418
P/EG = 2.15
Beta = 0.47
Revenue TTM = 4.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 291.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 474.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 945.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 137.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.03b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.88b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.28b USD (1.49b + Debt 2.03b - CCE 233.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.63 (Ebit TTM 291.2m / Interest Expense TTM 51.7m)
FCF Yield = -0.66% (FCF TTM -21.6m / Enterprise Value 3.28b)
FCF Margin = -0.48% (FCF TTM -21.6m / Revenue TTM 4.50b)
Net Margin = 2.89% (Net Income TTM 130.1m / Revenue TTM 4.50b)
Gross Margin = 12.53% ((Revenue TTM 4.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.93b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.56% (prev 11.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.97 (Enterprise Value 3.28b / Total Assets 3.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.91% (Interest Expense 18.5m / Debt 2.03b)
Taxrate = 44.90% (18.5m / 41.2m)
NOPAT = 160.4m (EBIT 291.2m * (1 - 44.90%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 623.7m / Total Current Liabilities 778.6m)
Debt / Equity = 3.49 (Debt 2.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 580.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.96 (Net Debt 1.88b / EBITDA 474.4m)
Debt / FCF = -87.12 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 1.88b / FCF TTM -21.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 528.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.86% (Net Income 130.1m / Total Assets 3.37b)
RoE = 24.60% (Net Income TTM 130.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 528.9m)
RoCE = 19.75% (EBIT 291.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 528.9m + L.T.Debt 945.4m))
RoIC = 10.97% (NOPAT 160.4m / Invested Capital 1.46b)
WACC = 3.57% (E(1.49b)/V(3.51b) * Re(7.75%) + D(2.03b)/V(3.51b) * Rd(0.91%) * (1-Tc(0.45)))
Discount Rate = 7.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.00%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -21.6m)
EPS Correlation: -57.68 | EPS CAGR: -64.88% | SUE: -3.10 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.88 | Revenue CAGR: 8.12% | SUE: -2.15 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for ARCO Stock

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