(ARI) Apollo Commercial Real - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US03762U1051

Stock: Mortgages, Subordinate Debt, CRE Debt, REIT

Total Rating 48

Risk 37

Buy Signal -0.62

REIT - Mortgage » Mortgage REITs
Age: 16.4y

Market Cap: 1,510m
Avg Trading Vol: 10.8M USD

ATR: 2.38%
Peers RS (IBD): 79.17

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -11.32%
EPS Trend: -37.6%

Last SUE: -0.80
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 26.41%
Rev. Trend: 33.6%

Last SUE: 0.73
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	10.24%
Yield on Cost 5y	14.68%
Yield CAGR 5y	-8.07%
Payout Consistency	93.4%
Payout Ratio	137.0%

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	24.3%
Relative Tail Risk	-4.15%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	1.02
Alpha	18.68

Character TTM
Beta	0.679
Beta Downside	0.726

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	25.73%
CAGR/Max DD	0.38

Description: ARI Apollo Commercial Real January 16, 2026

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (NASDAQ: ARI) is a REIT that originates, acquires, and manages a portfolio of commercial first-mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other CRE-related debt instruments. Because it qualifies under the Internal Revenue Code as a REIT, it avoids federal corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90 % of its taxable income to shareholders.

As of the most recent FY-2023 filing, ARI’s loan book stood at roughly $13 billion with a weighted-average loan-to-value ratio of 68 % and a sector mix of 45 % multifamily, 30 % office, and 25 % industrial. The company’s dividend yield hovered around 8 % and its net interest margin contracted 15 bps year-over-year as the Fed’s policy rate rose, highlighting sensitivity to interest-rate cycles. A key macro driver for ARI is the health of the U.S. commercial-real-estate market, especially office vacancy trends and multifamily rent growth, which together influence loan performance and credit-risk metrics.

For a deeper, data-driven view of ARI’s risk-adjusted returns, the ValueRay platform provides granular loan-level analytics that can help you assess the REIT’s exposure to evolving CRE dynamics.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0

Net Income: 138.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.23 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -108.2% < 20% (prev 2166 %; Δ -2274 % < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 184.2m > Net Income 138.2m
Net Debt (7.28b) to EBITDA (138.3m): 52.63 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.27 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (139.7m) vs 12m ago 1.03% < -2%
Gross Margin: 80.85% > 18% (prev 0.69%; Δ 8015 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 6.44% > 50% (prev 3.44%; Δ 3.00% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.35 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 138.3m / Interest Expense TTM 458.1m)

Altman Z'' -0.73

A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 245.9m - Total Current Liabilities 894.5m) / Total Assets 9.52b
B: -0.09 (Retained Earnings -840.2m / Total Assets 9.52b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 161.5m / Avg Total Assets 9.31b)
D: -0.11 (Book Value of Equity -838.8m / Total Liabilities 7.66b)
Altman-Z'' Score: -0.73 = B

Beneish M 1.00

DSRI: 0.00 (Receivables 65.5m/7.94b, Revenue 599.5m/312.9m)
GMI: 0.86 (GM 80.85% / 69.49%)
AQI: 45.23 (AQ_t 0.90 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.92 (Revenue 599.5m / 312.9m)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 138.2m - CFO 184.2m) / TA 9.52b)
Beneish M-Score: 22.91 (Cap -4..+1) = D

What is the price of ARI shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.80 with a total of 1,027,089 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.09%, over one month by +10.09%, over three months by +13.17% and over the past year by +30.76%.

Is ARI a buy, sell or hold?

Apollo Commercial Real has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefor, it is recommend to hold ARI.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 3
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the ARI price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	11.5	6%
Analysts Target Price	11.5	6%
ValueRay Target Price	12.6	16.6%

ARI Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026

P/E Trailing = 12.3523
P/E Forward = 15.528
P/S = 5.6084
P/B = 0.8044
P/EG = 33.37
Revenue TTM = 599.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 161.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 138.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.90b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 7.52b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 7.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 8.79b USD (1.51b + Debt 7.52b - CCE 245.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.35 (Ebit TTM 161.5m / Interest Expense TTM 458.1m)
EV/FCF = 156.6x (Enterprise Value 8.79b / FCF TTM 56.1m)
FCF Yield = 0.64% (FCF TTM 56.1m / Enterprise Value 8.79b)
FCF Margin = 9.36% (FCF TTM 56.1m / Revenue TTM 599.5m)
Net Margin = 23.05% (Net Income TTM 138.2m / Revenue TTM 599.5m)
Gross Margin = 80.85% ((Revenue TTM 599.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 114.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 81.53% (prev 82.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.92 (Enterprise Value 8.79b / Total Assets 9.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.53% (Interest Expense 115.4m / Debt 7.52b)
Taxrate = 0.46% (234.0k / 51.0m)
NOPAT = 160.7m (EBIT 161.5m * (1 - 0.46%))
Current Ratio = 0.27 (Total Current Assets 245.9m / Total Current Liabilities 894.5m)
Debt / Equity = 4.04 (Debt 7.52b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = 52.63 (Net Debt 7.28b / EBITDA 138.3m)
Debt / FCF = 129.7 (Net Debt 7.28b / FCF TTM 56.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.86b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.48% (Net Income 138.2m / Total Assets 9.52b)
RoE = 7.43% (Net Income TTM 138.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.86b)
RoCE = 4.63% (EBIT 161.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.86b + L.T.Debt 1.63b))
RoIC = 1.79% (NOPAT 160.7m / Invested Capital 9.00b)
WACC = 2.68% (E(1.51b)/V(9.03b) * Re(8.42%) + D(7.52b)/V(9.03b) * Rd(1.53%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.57%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.75% ; FCFF base≈46.7m ; Y1≈34.7m ; Y5≈20.2m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 629.9m - Net Debt 7.28b = -6.65b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -37.63 | EPS CAGR: -11.32% | SUE: -0.80 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 33.60 | Revenue CAGR: 26.41% | SUE: 0.73 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.26 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.94 | Chg30d=-0.069 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=-2.9% | Growth Revenue=+9.5%

Additional Sources for ARI Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle