(ASPN) Aspen Aerogels - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US04523Y1055
Stock: Aerogel Blankets, EV Thermal Barriers, Industrial Insulation, Subsea Insulation
Total Rating 30
Risk 40
Buy Signal -0.19
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 93.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.94 |
| Alpha | -92.32 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.614 |
| Beta Downside | 1.387 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 91.08% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.34 |
Description: ASPN Aspen Aerogels December 27, 2025
Aspen Aerogels Inc. (NYSE:ASPN) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells advanced aerogel insulation products for the energy-industrial, sustainable-insulation, and electric-vehicle (EV) markets worldwide. The firm operates two segments-Energy Industrial and Thermal Barrier-and offers a portfolio that includes PyroThin for EV battery packs, Pyrogel XTE/HPS for high-temperature refinery applications, Cryogel Z for cryogenic uses, and Spaceloft Subsea for offshore pipe-in-pipe solutions.
Key recent metrics: Q4 2024 revenue rose 18% YoY to $68 million, driven by a 32% increase in EV-related sales; the company’s gross margin stabilized around 55% after a 2023 ramp-up in production capacity; and its order backlog reached $210 million, reflecting strong demand in both the refining and EV thermal-management segments. Macro drivers include accelerating global EV adoption (projected >30 million EVs sold annually by 2030) and sustained capital-expenditure cycles in the oil-and-gas sector, which together underpin long-term growth for high-performance insulation.
For a deeper dive into ASPN’s valuation metrics, see the ValueRay analysis.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: -305.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 12.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 59.00% < 20% (prev 48.71%; Δ 10.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 52.4m > Net Income -305.3m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.94 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (82.4m) vs 12m ago 8.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 32.89% > 18% (prev 0.40%; Δ 3249 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 55.39% > 50% (prev 52.88%; Δ 2.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -25.25 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -269.0m / Interest Expense TTM 11.5m) |
Altman Z'' -12.30
| A: 0.42 (Total Current Assets 278.9m - Total Current Liabilities 70.7m) / Total Assets 491.4m |
| B: -1.99 (Retained Earnings -976.9m / Total Assets 491.4m) |
| C: -0.46 (EBIT TTM -291.4m / Avg Total Assets 637.0m) |
| D: -5.26 (Book Value of Equity -976.9m / Total Liabilities 185.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -12.30 = D |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.70 (Receivables 69.1m/115.2m, Revenue 352.9m/413.8m) |
| GMI: 1.22 (GM 32.89% / 39.96%) |
| AQI: 11.35 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.01) |
| SGI: 0.85 (Revenue 352.9m / 413.8m) |
| TATA: -0.73 (NI -305.3m - CFO 52.4m) / TA 491.4m) |
| Beneish M-Score: 2.21 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of ASPN shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 3.43 with a total of 1,262,353 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.78%, over one month by +3.00%, over three months by -16.55% and over the past year by -70.51%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.78%, over one month by +3.00%, over three months by -16.55% and over the past year by -70.51%.
Is ASPN a buy, sell or hold?
Aspen Aerogels has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.22.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy ASPN.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ASPN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6.8 | 99.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6.8 | 99.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 2.7 | -22.2% |
ASPN Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 714.2857
P/S = 0.7893
P/B = 0.9759
Revenue TTM = 352.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -291.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -269.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 84.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 35.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 150.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -567.0k USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 278.0m USD (278.5m + Debt 150.2m - CCE 150.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -25.25 (Ebit TTM -291.4m / Interest Expense TTM 11.5m)
EV/FCF = 103.5x (Enterprise Value 278.0m / FCF TTM 2.69m)
FCF Yield = 0.97% (FCF TTM 2.69m / Enterprise Value 278.0m)
FCF Margin = 0.76% (FCF TTM 2.69m / Revenue TTM 352.9m)
Net Margin = -86.52% (Net Income TTM -305.3m / Revenue TTM 352.9m)
Gross Margin = 32.89% ((Revenue TTM 352.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 236.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.49% (prev 32.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.57 (Enterprise Value 278.0m / Total Assets 491.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.98% (Interest Expense 2.97m / Debt 150.2m)
Taxrate = 11.36% (1.71m / 15.1m)
NOPAT = -258.3m (EBIT -291.4m * (1 - 11.36%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.94 (Total Current Assets 278.9m / Total Current Liabilities 70.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.49 (Debt 150.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 305.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.00 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -567.0k / EBITDA -269.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.21 (Net Debt -567.0k / FCF TTM 2.69m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 386.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -47.92% (Net Income -305.3m / Total Assets 491.4m)
RoE = -79.09% (Net Income TTM -305.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 386.0m)
RoCE = -61.96% (EBIT -291.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 386.0m + L.T.Debt 84.3m))
RoIC = -49.64% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -258.3m / Invested Capital 520.3m)
WACC = 8.32% (E(278.5m)/V(428.7m) * Re(11.86%) + D(150.2m)/V(428.7m) * Rd(1.98%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 11.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 8.48%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.77% ; FCFF base≈2.69m ; Y1≈1.76m ; Y5≈804.2k
Fair Price DCF = 0.19 (EV 14.9m - Net Debt -567.0k = Equity 15.5m / Shares 82.6m; r=8.32% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 76.99 | EPS CAGR: 47.51% | SUE: 2.32 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 81.82 | Revenue CAGR: 25.16% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.13 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.31 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+75.8% | Growth Revenue=-14.2%
P/S = 0.7893
P/B = 0.9759
Revenue TTM = 352.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -291.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = -269.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 84.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 35.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 150.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -567.0k USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 278.0m USD (278.5m + Debt 150.2m - CCE 150.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -25.25 (Ebit TTM -291.4m / Interest Expense TTM 11.5m)
EV/FCF = 103.5x (Enterprise Value 278.0m / FCF TTM 2.69m)
FCF Yield = 0.97% (FCF TTM 2.69m / Enterprise Value 278.0m)
FCF Margin = 0.76% (FCF TTM 2.69m / Revenue TTM 352.9m)
Net Margin = -86.52% (Net Income TTM -305.3m / Revenue TTM 352.9m)
Gross Margin = 32.89% ((Revenue TTM 352.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 236.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 28.49% (prev 32.45%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.57 (Enterprise Value 278.0m / Total Assets 491.4m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.98% (Interest Expense 2.97m / Debt 150.2m)
Taxrate = 11.36% (1.71m / 15.1m)
NOPAT = -258.3m (EBIT -291.4m * (1 - 11.36%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.94 (Total Current Assets 278.9m / Total Current Liabilities 70.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.49 (Debt 150.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 305.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.00 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -567.0k / EBITDA -269.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.21 (Net Debt -567.0k / FCF TTM 2.69m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 386.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -47.92% (Net Income -305.3m / Total Assets 491.4m)
RoE = -79.09% (Net Income TTM -305.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 386.0m)
RoCE = -61.96% (EBIT -291.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 386.0m + L.T.Debt 84.3m))
RoIC = -49.64% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -258.3m / Invested Capital 520.3m)
WACC = 8.32% (E(278.5m)/V(428.7m) * Re(11.86%) + D(150.2m)/V(428.7m) * Rd(1.98%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 11.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 8.48%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.77% ; FCFF base≈2.69m ; Y1≈1.76m ; Y5≈804.2k
Fair Price DCF = 0.19 (EV 14.9m - Net Debt -567.0k = Equity 15.5m / Shares 82.6m; r=8.32% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 76.99 | EPS CAGR: 47.51% | SUE: 2.32 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 81.82 | Revenue CAGR: 25.16% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.13 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.31 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+75.8% | Growth Revenue=-14.2%