(ATI) Allegheny Technologies - Overview
Stock: Titanium, Nickel-Alloys, Cobalt-Alloys, Zirconium, Powder-Alloys
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 44.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.9% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.72 |
| Alpha | 80.98 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.536 |
| Beta Downside | 1.469 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.02% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.36 |
Description: ATI Allegheny Technologies January 04, 2026
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) manufactures and sells specialty metals and complex components worldwide, organized into two segments: High-Performance Materials & Components and Advanced Alloys & Solutions. Its product slate spans titanium and titanium-based alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based super-alloys, advanced powder alloys, and a range of long forms (ingot, billet, bar, wire, seamless tubes) as well as precision forgings and machined parts.
The company also produces zirconium, hafnium, niobium, and other specialty alloys in plate, sheet, and precision-rolled strip formats, and it offers hot-rolling conversion services for carbon-steel products. ATI serves a diversified end-market base that includes medical and specialty energy, aerospace & defense, construction & mining, transportation, oil & gas, automotive, and food-equipment/appliance manufacturers.
Key quantitative points (FY 2023): revenue of roughly $3.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin near 8 %, and a free-cash-flow conversion of about 1.2 × EBITDA. The business is highly sensitive to aerospace demand cycles and defense-spending trends, while titanium price dynamics-driven by supply constraints in primary producers-remain a material cost driver. Capacity utilization in the Advanced Alloys segment has hovered around 85 % in recent quarters, reflecting steady order flow from aerospace OEMs.
For a deeper quantitative view, you may find ValueRay’s detailed model on ATI useful for assessing these drivers and valuation sensitivities.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.5
| Net Income: 404.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.33 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 36.48% < 20% (prev 39.81%; Δ -3.32% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 614.3m > Net Income 404.3m |
| Net Debt (1.33b) to EBITDA (801.0m): 1.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.66 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (139.4m) vs 12m ago -4.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 22.19% > 18% (prev 0.21%; Δ 2198 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 88.82% > 50% (prev 83.40%; Δ 5.42% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.42 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 801.0m / Interest Expense TTM 98.6m) |
Altman Z'' 3.81
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 2.68b - Total Current Liabilities 1.01b) / Total Assets 5.10b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 372.2m / Total Assets 5.10b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 632.9m / Avg Total Assets 5.17b) |
| D: 0.57 (Book Value of Equity 1.80b / Total Liabilities 3.18b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.81 = AA |
Beneish M -3.24
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 686.1m/784.8m, Revenue 4.59b/4.36b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 22.19% / 21.05%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 4.59b / 4.36b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 404.3m - CFO 614.3m) / TA 5.10b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ATI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +11.03%, over one month by +10.52%, over three months by +38.83% and over the past year by +110.31%.
Is ATI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ATI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 145.6 | 9% |
| Analysts Target Price | 145.6 | 9% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 198.4 | 48.5% |
ATI Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.7865
P/S = 3.866
P/B = 9.5997
P/EG = 1.1952
Revenue TTM = 4.59b USD
EBIT TTM = 632.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 801.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.72b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 31.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.75b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.33b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 19.07b USD (17.73b + Debt 1.75b - CCE 416.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.42 (Ebit TTM 632.9m / Interest Expense TTM 98.6m)
EV/FCF = 57.14x (Enterprise Value 19.07b / FCF TTM 333.7m)
FCF Yield = 1.75% (FCF TTM 333.7m / Enterprise Value 19.07b)
FCF Margin = 7.27% (FCF TTM 333.7m / Revenue TTM 4.59b)
Net Margin = 8.81% (Net Income TTM 404.3m / Revenue TTM 4.59b)
Gross Margin = 22.19% ((Revenue TTM 4.59b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.57b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 23.23% (prev 22.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 3.74 (Enterprise Value 19.07b / Total Assets 5.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.38% (Interest Expense 24.1m / Debt 1.75b)
Taxrate = 18.23% (22.4m / 122.9m)
NOPAT = 517.5m (EBIT 632.9m * (1 - 18.23%))
Current Ratio = 2.66 (Total Current Assets 2.68b / Total Current Liabilities 1.01b)
Debt / Equity = 0.97 (Debt 1.75b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.66 (Net Debt 1.33b / EBITDA 801.0m)
Debt / FCF = 3.99 (Net Debt 1.33b / FCF TTM 333.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.78b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.83% (Net Income 404.3m / Total Assets 5.10b)
RoE = 22.69% (Net Income TTM 404.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.78b)
RoCE = 18.08% (EBIT 632.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.78b + L.T.Debt 1.72b))
RoIC = 14.10% (NOPAT 517.5m / Invested Capital 3.67b)
WACC = 10.63% (E(17.73b)/V(19.48b) * Re(11.57%) + D(1.75b)/V(19.48b) * Rd(1.38%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 11.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.40%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 59.38% ; FCFF base≈267.5m ; Y1≈175.6m ; Y5≈80.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.08b - Net Debt 1.33b = -249.4m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 87.59 | EPS CAGR: 25.23% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 85.97 | Revenue CAGR: 9.62% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.87 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.14 | Chg30d=+0.232 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+27.8% | Growth Revenue=+8.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.88 | Chg30d=+0.295 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+17.8% | Growth Revenue=+8.1%