(ATO) Atmos Energy - Overview
Stock: Natural Gas, Distribution, Pipeline, Storage
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.24% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.60% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 9.03% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 48.6% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 16.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -0.75% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.07 |
| Alpha | 14.90 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.157 |
| Beta Downside | 0.155 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 16.87% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.00 |
Description: ATO Atmos Energy December 17, 2025
Atmos Energy (ATO) operates as a regulated natural-gas utility in the United States, split between a Distribution segment that serves roughly 3.4 million customers across eight states via ≈ 76,000 miles of underground mains, and a Pipeline & Storage segment that moves third-party gas and runs five underground storage facilities in Texas, owning about 5,700 miles of transmission lines.
Key metrics from the most recent 10-K (FY 2023) show total revenue of $5.2 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 30 %, reflecting the high-margin nature of regulated distribution. The company’s growth is driven primarily by modest demand-side expansion (≈ 1 % annual residential consumption growth) and periodic rate-case approvals that fund infrastructure upgrades. Capital intensity remains a sector hallmark: ATO’s 2023 capex was $1.1 billion, funded largely through regulated earnings and debt at an average cost of 4.5 %.
Broader industry forces that will shape ATO’s outlook include: (1) the transition toward low-carbon gases (e.g., renewable natural gas) that could create new revenue streams; (2) tightening pipeline capacity in key markets, which may increase third-party transport fees; and (3) macro-economic pressure from rising interest rates, which can elevate financing costs for long-term infrastructure projects.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform provides a granular breakdown of ATO’s cash-flow assumptions and sensitivity analyses, which can help you gauge the robustness of its valuation under different scenarios.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 1.25b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 3.88% < 20% (prev 15.62%; Δ -11.74% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 2.08b > Net Income 1.25b |
| Net Debt (9.26b) to EBITDA (2.43b): 3.81 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (164.9m) vs 12m ago 4.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.26% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 5167 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 16.43% > 50% (prev 15.79%; Δ 0.65% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.50 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.43b / Interest Expense TTM 146.1m) |
Altman Z'' 2.23
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 1.64b - Total Current Liabilities 1.45b) / Total Assets 32.76b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 5.10b / Total Assets 32.76b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 1.68b / Avg Total Assets 29.63b) |
| D: 1.25 (Book Value of Equity 5.58b / Total Liabilities 4.48b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.23 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.17
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 731.1m/628.9m, Revenue 4.87b/4.18b) |
| GMI: 1.14 (GM 52.26% / 59.63%) |
| AQI: 0.38 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 4.87b / 4.18b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 1.25b - CFO 2.08b) / TA 32.76b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.17 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ATO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.92%, over one month by +2.56%, over three months by -3.04% and over the past year by +23.17%.
Is ATO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ATO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 176.8 | 3.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 176.8 | 3.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 198.5 | 15.8% |
ATO Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/E Forward = 21.2314
P/S = 5.8227
P/B = 1.9865
P/EG = 2.0816
Revenue TTM = 4.87b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.68b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.43b USD
Long Term Debt = 9.62b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.63b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 9.26b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 37.62b USD (28.35b + Debt 9.63b - CCE 367.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.50 (Ebit TTM 1.68b / Interest Expense TTM 146.1m)
EV/FCF = -23.11x (Enterprise Value 37.62b / FCF TTM -1.63b)
FCF Yield = -4.33% (FCF TTM -1.63b / Enterprise Value 37.62b)
FCF Margin = -33.43% (FCF TTM -1.63b / Revenue TTM 4.87b)
Net Margin = 25.67% (Net Income TTM 1.25b / Revenue TTM 4.87b)
Gross Margin = 52.26% ((Revenue TTM 4.87b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 60.84% (prev 56.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 37.62b / Total Assets 32.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.28% (Interest Expense 27.3m / Debt 9.63b)
Taxrate = 19.98% (100.6m / 503.6m)
NOPAT = 1.34b (EBIT 1.68b * (1 - 19.98%))
Current Ratio = 1.13 (Total Current Assets 1.64b / Total Current Liabilities 1.45b)
Debt / Equity = 0.67 (Debt 9.63b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.81 (Net Debt 9.26b / EBITDA 2.43b)
Debt / FCF = -5.69 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 9.26b / FCF TTM -1.63b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 13.59b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.22% (Net Income 1.25b / Total Assets 32.76b)
RoE = 9.20% (Net Income TTM 1.25b / Total Stockholder Equity 13.59b)
RoCE = 7.24% (EBIT 1.68b / Capital Employed (Equity 13.59b + L.T.Debt 9.62b))
RoIC = 5.94% (NOPAT 1.34b / Invested Capital 22.63b)
WACC = 4.90% (E(28.35b)/V(37.99b) * Re(6.49%) + D(9.63b)/V(37.99b) * Rd(0.28%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 6.49% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.37%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -1.63b)
EPS Correlation: 19.58 | EPS CAGR: 0.78% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -2.20 | Revenue CAGR: -5.35% | SUE: 0.20 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.34 | Chg30d=+0.073 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=8.21 | Chg30d=+0.101 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=+10.1% | Growth Revenue=+7.7%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.76 | Chg30d=+0.088 | Revisions Net=+5 | Growth EPS=+6.8% | Growth Revenue=+19.3%